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 Post subject: Trade in other league
PostPosted: Mon Jul 25, 2011 12:34 pm 
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I have conceded in my other league that it just isn't my year. Adam Dunn and Pedro have killed my power numbers and my pitching from an ERA and WHIP standpoint has flopped (Even with King Felix on the team).

I have some trading pieces and the one team has Joey Votto and Chris Young. They are both 27 and both would be available. Votto hits for a higher average and has a better track record while Young has more power, lower average and is having a career year.

Which one should I target?

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 Post subject: Re: Trade in other league
PostPosted: Mon Jul 25, 2011 1:12 pm 
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I say Votto. He'll get a few more HR's from playing at Great American Ballpark and has a chance for more runs and RBI with the lineup around him...It's better to have a strong 1st baseman than an OFer...

You can build an OF to get a good combo of stats easier than 1st base...

Or were you talking about Chris Young the pitcher? Cuz none his offensive stats would count and would be pointless.

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 Post subject: Re: Trade in other league
PostPosted: Tue Jul 26, 2011 10:26 am 
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bucco boy wrote:
I have conceded in my other league that it just isn't my year. Adam Dunn and Pedro have killed my power numbers and my pitching from an ERA and WHIP standpoint has flopped (Even with King Felix on the team).

I have some trading pieces and the one team has Joey Votto and Chris Young. They are both 27 and both would be available. Votto hits for a higher average and has a better track record while Young has more power, lower average and is having a career year.

Which one should I target?


Votto by a wide margin, he will also cost you alot more.

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 Post subject: Re: Trade in other league
PostPosted: Tue Jul 26, 2011 10:53 am 
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I actually targeted Matt Kemp. It might be a long shot, but this guy really needs saves. I offered him Matt Holliday, Craig Kimbrel and Ricky Romero for Kemp. I would replace Romero with King Felix if he wanted to.

If he would go for it, my five keepers next year would be Justin Upton, Asdrubal Cabrera, Elvis Andrus, Kemp and one more (Ian Kennedy, Alex Gordon, Pedro A., Felix or Romero). I don't have to keep 5 and can take an early draft pick next year.

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 Post subject: Re: Trade in other league
PostPosted: Tue Jul 26, 2011 2:36 pm 
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bucco boy wrote:
I actually targeted Matt Kemp. It might be a long shot, but this guy really needs saves. I offered him Matt Holliday, Craig Kimbrel and Ricky Romero for Kemp. I would replace Romero with King Felix if he wanted to.

If he would go for it, my five keepers next year would be Justin Upton, Asdrubal Cabrera, Elvis Andrus, Kemp and one more (Ian Kennedy, Alex Gordon, Pedro A., Felix or Romero). I don't have to keep 5 and can take an early draft pick next year.


I wouldn't give up Felix, he'd be in my top 5 keeper SP in all of MLB. He's still super young too.

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 Post subject: Re: Trade in other league
PostPosted: Tue Jul 26, 2011 3:33 pm 
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Barrys Dopers wrote:
I wouldn't give up Felix, he'd be in my top 5 keeper SP in all of MLB. He's still super young too.

For some reason, his velocity is down 2-3 mph. He is throwing a ton of breaking balls, falling behind in the count, and getting hit around pretty frequently.

He seems to gear up with runners on base in the early innings, but wears down and gives up runs in the 6th and 7th innings. Pitching for the awful Mariners is brutal, and he will turn it around when traded, I suspect.

But the fact is that he is dealing at 92-93 mph (not 95-96 like last year), and giving up a ton of base runners.

The only good starts he has had for the past two months were against Tampa, Florida and the A's. Not exactly a murderer's row.


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 Post subject: Re: Trade in other league
PostPosted: Tue Jul 26, 2011 4:45 pm 
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He wouldn't go for Kemp so it's back to Votto.

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 Post subject: Re: Trade in other league
PostPosted: Wed Jul 27, 2011 5:35 pm 
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Bucfan wrote:
Barrys Dopers wrote:
I wouldn't give up Felix, he'd be in my top 5 keeper SP in all of MLB. He's still super young too.

For some reason, his velocity is down 2-3 mph. He is throwing a ton of breaking balls, falling behind in the count, and getting hit around pretty frequently.

He seems to gear up with runners on base in the early innings, but wears down and gives up runs in the 6th and 7th innings. Pitching for the awful Mariners is brutal, and he will turn it around when traded, I suspect.

But the fact is that he is dealing at 92-93 mph (not 95-96 like last year), and giving up a ton of base runners.

The only good starts he has had for the past two months were against Tampa, Florida and the A's. Not exactly a murderer's row.


His K/9 and FIP (xFIP) are right where they were last year. By pitch fx his fastball (93.6) is only down 0.8 mph and its about the same as it was in 2009. The only odd stat this year is his ground ball rate dropping off. At 25 with 6 straight years of 190+ IP, there just arn't many safer bets in all of MLB for the next 5 seasons. He's absolutely elite, who would you put ahead of him as a keeper SP? Verlander, Kershaw, Doc, CC, maybe Weaver or Lee?

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 Post subject: Re: Trade in other league
PostPosted: Wed Jul 27, 2011 8:27 pm 
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Barrys Dopers wrote:
His K/9 and FIP (xFIP) are right where they were last year. By pitch fx his fastball (93.6) is only down 0.8 mph and its about the same as it was in 2009.

I am basing this on watching most of his starts in 2010, and most (until I cannot bear to watch any more) in 2011.

Felix dealt at 95-96 mph last year. This year, he basically never gets to 95 mph. His fastball sits at 92-93 mph.

The Fangraphs data are fine but I can state for a fact that they data are wrong on occasion as to pitch type. For example, a Felix heater at 89 mph (which I have seen several times this year) may be called a slider (since he did throw his slider at 87 mph last season).

We can debate about 0.8 mph per Fangraphs all we want, but watch Hernandez. See if he throws ONE fastball at 95+ mph. I would wager you find he does not.

Barrys Dopers wrote:
At 25 with 6 straight years of 190+ IP, there just arn't many safer bets in all of MLB for the next 5 seasons. He's absolutely elite, who would you put ahead of him as a keeper SP? Verlander, Kershaw, Doc, CC, maybe Weaver or Lee?

He is a keeper, of course, and will get you more wins with a better team and better hitting line-up, but if moved out of Safeco, and given his decline in velocity and reliance on breaking balls, I expect a notable increase in WHIP and ERA.

As for who I rate as being a better keeper, I go with premium pitchers on good teams in the NL. Then, I include dominant AL pitchers, preferably on good teams and/or in good pitcher's parks. Those pitchers are (not including Felix) the following:

  • Lincecum
  • Lee
  • Halladay
  • Hamels
  • Verlander
  • Weaver
  • Sabathia
  • Hanson
  • Kershaw
  • Lester

So he is top-10, no question. But the simple fact is that a SP whose velocity declines is one who bears some attention for possible decline. I put him in the John Lester range right now.


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