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 Post subject: Some perspective on the season so far
PostPosted: Thu May 08, 2008 5:23 pm 
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Fresh off the sweep of the Bay City Bombers, I was just looking at the standings and decided to dig a little deeper into the Pirate's record so far. Some interesting facts:

  • The record stands at 15-19
  • 9-7 at home, 6-12 on the road
  • They are 6.5 back of the division leading Cardinals (who, IMHO, are pretenders and will fall hard once they start playing good teams)
  • They are 4 back of the Cubs (the true team to beat, again IMHO)
  • 24 of the team's 34 games have come against teams with winning records (and for the smart alecs in the crowd, all but one of the teams (the Cubs) would still have a winning record even if they hadn't play the pirates). The Cards, by comparison, have played only 9 games against teams with a winning record and six of those were against the Astros who surely won't be in that category for long.
  • Despite the debacle against the Nats last weekend, the Pirates are 7-3 against teams with losing records
  • But, alas, they are 8-16 against teams with winning records
  • They are 15-13 against teams that have not failed to win a world series for over 100 years (AKA against everyone but the Cubs)

All this to say, your Pittsburgh Pirates are really not in that bad of a position. The next 16 games will be telling. There are 4 against Atlanta, 3 against the Cards, 3 against the Brewers and 6 against the Cubs. If past performance is indicative of future results and their record against winning teams follows the early trend, kiss the season goodbye and start fielding calls for Nady, Bay, Wilson, Laroche, Marte and Grabo. But if they can play .500 ball or better over that period, they'll still be right in the thick of things at the end of May.

Burger drunk-on-kool-aid-today Meister


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 Post subject: Re: Some perspective on the season so far
PostPosted: Thu May 08, 2008 5:56 pm 
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I just checked, the Pirates record last year after 34 games?

15-19!


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 Post subject: Re: Some perspective on the season so far
PostPosted: Thu May 08, 2008 7:47 pm 
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Argentum wrote:
I just checked, the Pirates record last year after 34 games?

15-19!


Woo-hoo!! 68-94, here we come!!

To be fair, if the starting pitching - particularly Gorzellany and Duke - pitch well, then the team will be competitive. They can score some runs. They have some good bats that have yet to contribute much. I think that Doumit and McLouth are genuine contributors and will wind up producing a lot of offense this year.

Nady, McLouth, Doumit, Bay, Sanchez, Laroche can drive a pretty good offense. If Jack ever returns, then the number 8 spot is no longer a complete void.

So, 72 wins is likely. 75 is possible. 81 is a pipe dream.


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 Post subject: Re: Some perspective on the season so far
PostPosted: Thu May 08, 2008 8:29 pm 
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Why do they call it a pipe dream?


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 Post subject: Re: Some perspective on the season so far
PostPosted: Thu May 08, 2008 8:47 pm 
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Az Bucco fan wrote:
Why do they call it a pipe dream?

Opium. See the film "Once Upon A Time In America".

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 Post subject: Re: Some perspective on the season so far
PostPosted: Thu May 08, 2008 10:16 pm 
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Honestly, I'd like them to be close enough in June or July that they are not obvious sellers at the deadline. That would be a nice change.

I agree with everything that Bucfan wrote. Plus, it's not possible that they'll play 75% of their games all season against teams with winning records is it?


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 Post subject: Re: Some perspective on the season so far
PostPosted: Thu May 08, 2008 11:17 pm 
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sisyphus wrote:
Az Bucco fan wrote:
Why do they call it a pipe dream?

Opium. See the film "Once Upon A Time In America".

Interesting. I always thought it was some sort of plumbing metaphor, like a "dream" being flushed down the toilet. But the opium angle makes much more sense. :)

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 Post subject: Re: Some perspective on the season so far
PostPosted: Fri May 09, 2008 2:04 am 
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burghermeister wrote:
Fresh off the sweep of the Bay City Bombers, I was just looking at the standings and decided to dig a little deeper into the Pirate's record so far. Some interesting facts:

  • The record stands at 15-19
  • 9-7 at home, 6-12 on the road
  • They are 6.5 back of the division leading Cardinals (who, IMHO, are pretenders and will fall hard once they start playing good teams)
  • They are 4 back of the Cubs (the true team to beat, again IMHO)
  • 24 of the team's 34 games have come against teams with winning records (and for the smart alecs in the crowd, all but one of the teams (the Cubs) would still have a winning record even if they hadn't play the pirates). The Cards, by comparison, have played only 9 games against teams with a winning record and six of those were against the Astros who surely won't be in that category for long.
  • Despite the debacle against the Nats last weekend, the Pirates are 7-3 against teams with losing records
  • But, alas, they are 8-16 against teams with winning records
  • They are 15-13 against teams that have not failed to win a world series for over 100 years (AKA against everyone but the Cubs)

All this to say, your Pittsburgh Pirates are really not in that bad of a position. The next 16 games will be telling. There are 4 against Atlanta, 3 against the Cards, 3 against the Brewers and 6 against the Cubs. If past performance is indicative of future results and their record against winning teams follows the early trend, kiss the season goodbye and start fielding calls for Nady, Bay, Wilson, Laroche, Marte and Grabo. But if they can play .500 ball or better over that period, they'll still be right in the thick of things at the end of May.

Burger drunk-on-kool-aid-today Meister



A few things....


If they win this year, it will be with Dave Littlefield's and Kevin Mclatchey's players; and I refuse to believe that will happen. IF the Pirates ever turn it around, it will most likely be with anew group of guys (hopefully the current regime).
I can't get over Nady and Nate, though.

My only problem with your argument is "throwing out the series with the Nationals." You can't do that. That is only a few degrees from "If you throw out the games they lost, they're undefeated!"

I want to agree about the Cardinals, I assumed their offseason losses would hurt them. But they have played really well. As much as I don't like Tony LaRussa, he can manage with the best of them. Plus, Ankiel is playing out of his mind.

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 Post subject: Re: Some perspective on the season so far
PostPosted: Fri May 09, 2008 10:39 am 
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40% to 45% (65 to 73 wins) is what you should expect. This year and every year.

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 Post subject: Re: Some perspective on the season so far
PostPosted: Fri May 09, 2008 11:32 am 
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Welfare_Fraud wrote:
If they win this year, it will be with Dave Littlefield's and Kevin Mclatchey's players; and I refuse to believe that will happen. IF the Pirates ever turn it around, it will most likely be with anew group of guys (hopefully the current regime).
I can't get over Nady and Nate, though.

That's a pretty silly argument. So the players are bad because Littlefield and McClatchy acquired them? Besides that, NH has already made some savvy move that have made the Pirates a better team, the acquisition of Yates to name the most obvious one. It's still early but Dumatrait looks to be a good addition and I think that Michaels will turn out to be a positive addition as well.


Welfare_Fraud wrote:
My only problem with your argument is "throwing out the series with the Nationals." You can't do that. That is only a few degrees from "If you throw out the games they lost, they're undefeated!"

I didn't throw out the series with the Nats. I said that including the series with the Nats they are 7-3 against team that currently have a losing record. I completely agree that you can't throw out any games.


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 Post subject: Re: Some perspective on the season so far
PostPosted: Fri May 09, 2008 11:38 am 
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burghermeister wrote:
Welfare_Fraud wrote:
If they win this year, it will be with Dave Littlefield's and Kevin Mclatchey's players; and I refuse to believe that will happen. IF the Pirates ever turn it around, it will most likely be with anew group of guys (hopefully the current regime).
I can't get over Nady and Nate, though.

That's a pretty silly argument. So the players are bad because Littlefield and McClatchy acquired them? Besides that, NH has already made some savvy move that have made the Pirates a better team, the acquisition of Yates to name the most obvious one. It's still early but Dumatrait looks to be a good addition and I think that Michaels will turn out to be a positive addition as well.



Further, many of those players were not acquired by Littlefield; rather, they came from Mickey White's drafts in Bonifay's later years.


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 Post subject: Re: Some perspective on the season so far
PostPosted: Fri May 09, 2008 12:10 pm 
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BBF wrote:
burghermeister wrote:


Further, many of those players were not acquired by Littlefield; rather, they came from Mickey White's drafts in Bonifay's later years.



I always thought Cam Bonifay would have done okay, but the prospect of a new ballpark opening pushed him into panic mode and led to acquisitions like Derek Bell.

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 Post subject: Re: Some perspective on the season so far
PostPosted: Fri May 09, 2008 12:17 pm 
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Signings like Derek Bell weren't good and add on to that the huge contracts Giles, Kendall, Meares, Mike Benjamin, and Young got too!!!

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 Post subject: Re: Some perspective on the season so far
PostPosted: Fri May 09, 2008 12:24 pm 
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Don't lump Giles in with that group. He was worth what he got paid, and he brought some nice talent when he was traded.

Odds are we will have another losing year, but I have not given up hope. It hinges on the starters. I think these position players and bullpen are good enough to break .500 this year.


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 Post subject: Re: Some perspective on the season so far
PostPosted: Fri May 09, 2008 12:32 pm 
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MIke Benjamin sucked AND he is a jerk.


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 Post subject: Re: Some perspective on the season so far
PostPosted: Fri May 09, 2008 1:38 pm 
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Jeez AZ... you act like you know Mr. Benjamin or something :D


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 Post subject: Re: Some perspective on the season so far
PostPosted: Sun May 11, 2008 10:16 pm 
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Az-- always bringing sex into the discussion.

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