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 Post subject: How much longer?
PostPosted: Wed May 07, 2008 9:59 am 
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With Nady raking, Bay picking up steam, and the Pirates 12-17 heading into a stretch against Atlanta, St. Louis and Chicago. How much longer will it be before NH starts dealing? We all know it must be done. The outfield could be LF McLouth, CF McCutchen (currently batting .290 with 6HRs), and RF Pearce sooner than we think.


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 Post subject: Re: How much longer?
PostPosted: Wed May 07, 2008 10:04 am 
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The only team that gets desperate this early is the Yankees. Probably at least a month away.


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 Post subject: Re: How much longer?
PostPosted: Wed May 07, 2008 10:07 am 
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Your probably right, but like Real Estate, sell high! sell high! :lol:

What we need is for contending teams to get in a panic, thats when the overspend on "proven" talent.


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 Post subject: Re: How much longer?
PostPosted: Wed May 07, 2008 10:14 am 
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Piratefan13 wrote:
Your probably right, but like Real Estate, sell high! sell high! :lol:

What we need is for contending teams to get in a panic, thats when the overspend on "proven" talent.


Exactly. Hopefully, some contending teams will have outfield injuries right around those magical two weeks at the end of May when Bay goes on his annual homerun binge. Sell him at the absolute highest value AND have enough people interested to start a bidding war.


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 Post subject: Re: How much longer?
PostPosted: Wed May 07, 2008 12:05 pm 
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Well, this brings up an interesting question to my mind.

How soon is too soon, and too late, too late?

Any businessman worth their salt knows you make the most profit by doing something differant. In this case, Beane established value with the OBP (I'm simplifying, I know). Now, with the notice today that Griffey Jr. can be had from this point on, how much differant is NH's high OBP, OPS guy with a .260 average than anyone elses?

How differant is NH's approach to acquire power arms, any differant than anyone else in the division, or baseball, really?

Right now, for the most part, you have everyone doing the same thing, or trying to do the same thing in terms of offering contracted certainty on high-stats guys for young prospects, mostly pitching.

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: How much longer?
PostPosted: Wed May 07, 2008 4:02 pm 
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Piratefan13 wrote:
With Nady raking, Bay picking up steam, and the Pirates 12-17 heading into a stretch against Atlanta, St. Louis and Chicago. How much longer will it be before NH starts dealing? We all know it must be done. The outfield could be LF McLouth, CF McCutchen (currently batting .290 with 6HRs), and RF Pearce sooner than we think.

There's no way I'd bring up any real prospects until the second half of the season so we can get an additional season out of them before their arbitration clocks run out.

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 Post subject: Re: How much longer?
PostPosted: Thu May 08, 2008 1:51 am 
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What's wrong with keeping Nady around here for a few years? I'm tired of trading good players for prospects. Nady is tearing it up and he's our best clutch hitter. Besides, would if these so called prospects don't pan out and we get nothing like Aramis Ramirez. McLouth Nady and McCutchen would be a great outfield to have for the next few seasons.


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 Post subject: Re: How much longer?
PostPosted: Thu May 08, 2008 9:33 am 
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d-train wrote:
What's wrong with keeping Nady around here for a few years? I'm tired of trading good players for prospects. Nady is tearing it up and he's our best clutch hitter. Besides, would if these so called prospects don't pan out and we get nothing like Aramis Ramirez. McLouth Nady and McCutchen would be a great outfield to have for the next few seasons.

Keeping Nady around banks on the notion that he'll maintain this level of performance for the next few years. Considering his history and the fact that he's 29, I find that considerably doubtful. The Pirates are not likely to become a competative team until possibly 2010. By then, I have my doubts as to whether Nady will be all that useful. The Pirates do not want to be the ones holding the bag when Nady's production goes south. It's best to trade him this year and receive some pieces in return that will be helpful in the long run.

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 Post subject: Re: How much longer?
PostPosted: Thu May 08, 2008 10:07 am 
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Willton wrote:
d-train wrote:
What's wrong with keeping Nady around here for a few years? I'm tired of trading good players for prospects. Nady is tearing it up and he's our best clutch hitter. Besides, would if these so called prospects don't pan out and we get nothing like Aramis Ramirez. McLouth Nady and McCutchen would be a great outfield to have for the next few seasons.

Keeping Nady around banks on the notion that he'll maintain this level of performance for the next few years. Considering his history and the fact that he's 29, I find that considerably doubtful. The Pirates are not likely to become a competative team until possibly 2010. By then, I have my doubts as to whether Nady will be all that useful. The Pirates do not want to be the ones holding the bag when Nady's production goes south. It's best to trade him this year and receive some pieces in return that will be helpful in the long run.


Agree 100%. If Nady were to be extended a few years, even at an affordable price, he's 32-33 years old when his contract is up and very likely not the commodity that he is right now.


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 Post subject: Re: How much longer?
PostPosted: Thu May 08, 2008 10:10 am 
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Argentum wrote:

Agree 100%. If Nady were to be extended a few years, even at an affordable price, he's 32-33 years old when his contract is up and very likely not the commodity that he is right now.


Very true, but then again, if he is extended for a few years at an affordable price, and can produce like this into next season, he is probably even more valuable as trade bait, as he wouldn't be going into free agency.

Not saying this is the path to take, because I tend to think this is his peak. Having said that though, if our talent evaluators believe he can sustain this for at least another season, maybe it is worth considering.


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 Post subject: Re: How much longer?
PostPosted: Thu May 08, 2008 10:38 am 
d-train wrote:
What's wrong with keeping Nady around here for a few years? I'm tired of trading good players for prospects. Nady is tearing it up and he's our best clutch hitter. Besides, would if these so called prospects don't pan out and we get nothing like Aramis Ramirez. McLouth Nady and McCutchen would be a great outfield to have for the next few seasons.


Exactly D-Train. He's the kind of player I'd liek them to lock up long-term. Any long-term signing is a risk, but you have to sign someone at some point to be a serious contender.

They won't though so don't get your hopes up.


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 Post subject: Re: How much longer?
PostPosted: Thu May 08, 2008 11:02 am 
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d-train wrote:
What's wrong with keeping Nady around here for a few years? I'm tired of trading good players for prospects. Nady is tearing it up and he's our best clutch hitter. Besides, would if these so called prospects don't pan out and we get nothing like Aramis Ramirez. McLouth Nady and McCutchen would be a great outfield to have for the next few seasons.

Xavier Nady will be a platoon outfielder or pinch hitter by the time the Pirates are a contender. It would be smarter to deal him at the peak of his value, because he's not going to maintain this production all year, let alone for two or three more.

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 Post subject: Re: How much longer?
PostPosted: Thu May 08, 2008 5:15 pm 
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Platoon outfielder? Maybe you know something I don't. I don't see Nady batting 350 by the end of year but I see him hitting around 300 with 25 to 30 homeruns if he stays healthy. Sign him before we have to sit here another 3 years waiting for those prospects to be major league ready.


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 Post subject: Re: How much longer?
PostPosted: Thu May 08, 2008 6:03 pm 
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d-train wrote:
Platoon outfielder? Maybe you know something I don't. I don't see Nady batting 350 by the end of year but I see him hitting around 300 with 25 to 30 homeruns if he stays healthy. Sign him before we have to sit here another 3 years waiting for those prospects to be major league ready.

Look at his numbers. Until this year, Nady has been historically bad at hitting RH pitching and very good at hitting LH pitching. I don't see him bucking that trend in the future, especially since he'll be on the wrong side of 30.

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 Post subject: Re: How much longer?
PostPosted: Thu May 08, 2008 7:05 pm 
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d-train wrote:
Platoon outfielder? Maybe you know something I don't. I don't see Nady batting 350 by the end of year but I see him hitting around 300 with 25 to 30 homeruns if he stays healthy. Sign him before we have to sit here another 3 years waiting for those prospects to be major league ready.

I'm not talking about now, I'm talking 2 or 3 years from now. Do you see him putting up those kind of numbers in 2010? As to your predictions for this season, the 25 to 30 homers looks good, but I'll take all bets claiming that his average will be over .290.

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 Post subject: Re: How much longer?
PostPosted: Thu May 08, 2008 7:19 pm 
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So let's not sign him because of him being bad against RHP in the past. I'm talking about signing him for 3 to 4 years not 10. He'll be 32 or 33. He's been our best player the last 2 seasons, I think he should stay.


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 Post subject: Re: How much longer?
PostPosted: Thu May 08, 2008 7:39 pm 
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d-train wrote:
So let's not sign him because of him being bad against RHP in the past. I'm talking about signing him for 3 to 4 years not 10. He'll be 32 or 33. He's been our best player the last 2 seasons, I think he should stay.

Nady was not the Pirates best hitter last year and he isn't their best hitter this year. In addition, he's below average defensively. Nady's off to a great start, and it's likely that he's going to have a fine year, but he will never get better than his is right now, and he's likely to get worse. He has a long injury history, and guys like that do not tend to stay productive for a long time past their 30th birthdays.

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 Post subject: Re: How much longer?
PostPosted: Thu May 08, 2008 8:13 pm 
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d-train wrote:
So let's not sign him because of him being bad against RHP in the past. I'm talking about signing him for 3 to 4 years not 10. He'll be 32 or 33. He's been our best player the last 2 seasons, I think he should stay.

Talk about someone high on the kool-aid. Nady was not our best position player last year; that honor goes to either Freddy Sanchez or Jack Wilson. And this year, our best position player is clearly Nate McLouth, who is hitting better than Nady while playing a more difficult defensive position.

Look, Nady had a decent year last year and is having a great one this year, but those are the only two years he's been decent. I don't think it's prudent to lock up a player like that into his thirties after his peak years. Three to four years is a long time; I don't want the Pirates making the same mistake they did with Kevin Young. It's best to trade him now while his value is high for something that will be more useful in the long run.

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 Post subject: Re: How much longer?
PostPosted: Thu May 08, 2008 8:23 pm 
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His agent is Scott Boros. we would need to pay top dollar to sign Nady to an extension. I really like him and hope he continues this all year, but since we are not going to sign him it's time to put out the for sale sign and begin listening for offers. But right now he is the best bait we have for future players, so we must get good people for him.

The longer the season goes, the more his value decreases because he's approaching FA, and it is possible that his performance will go down or an injury will take him away.

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 Post subject: Re: How much longer?
PostPosted: Fri May 09, 2008 2:11 am 
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Talk about someone high on the kool-aid. Nady was not our best position player last year; that honor goes to either Freddy Sanchez or Jack Wilson. And this year, our best position player is clearly Nate McLouth, who is hitting better than Nady while playing a more difficult defensive position.



Willton, You might be the one that's a little high on the kool aid there buddy. I said that Nady has been our best player this season and last year. Freddy and Jack?? You can't be serious. Freddy is playing poorly this year and Jack is hurt. Last season Jack was batting 250 until he came on strong just like Freddy late last season. McLouth was our pinch hitter last year who couldn't buy a hit until he saw regular playing time. Nady has been our best player and most consistent player this season and last.

Look, I see everyones point here about trading him while his value is high. I just think if we keep Nady, McLouth and McCutchen in the outfield the next 3 years we would be in better shape than trading Nady for more prospects.


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