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 Post subject: For Econo about last night's Pirates/Nationals game
PostPosted: Fri May 02, 2008 6:11 pm 
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Bottom of the 7th . . . game is tied 2-2. Wily Mo Pena leads off the bottom of the 7th inning with a single. Wil Nieves coming to bat. Nieves singled in 2 runs in the 2nd inning and walked in the 4th inning. PH on deck for Odalis Perez. Nieves had 10 hits in his previous 18 ABs; clearly he is swinging a hot bat.

Nationals' manager is Manny Acta.

What does he do? Calls for the sacrifice bunt.

I immediately thought of the quote that used to be attached to the bottom of your signature attributed to Acta . . . wasn't it something to the effect of the sacrifice bunt being outdated? I know that it made reference to (I believe) the 3rd inning but I found it relatively interesting that Acta was essentially making a move where he thought that he had a better chance to score a run to get ahead of the Bucs in the bottom of the 7th by sacrificing his hottest hitter - particularly in light of what was contained in the quote.

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 Post subject: Re: For Econo about last night's Pirates/Nationals game
PostPosted: Fri May 02, 2008 7:13 pm 
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Are you sure it was Acta that called for the bunt, or did Nieves act on his own volition?

By the way, Nieves is a terrible hitter, notwithstanding his "hot" bat. If there's a position player to bunt with, it's Wil Nieves.

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 Post subject: Re: For Econo about last night's Pirates/Nationals game
PostPosted: Sat May 03, 2008 2:11 am 
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Willton wrote:
By the way, Nieves is a terrible hitter, notwithstanding his "hot" bat. If there's a position player to bunt with, it's Wil Nieves.


He is not pitcher-bad.

If I understood your position, bunting increases the chance of scoring only in very limited circumstances (one run wins the game, for example), with very particular (i.e., lousy) hitters.

Is the 7th inning one such circumstance? Is Wil Nieves bad enough as a hitter that bunting is advisable?


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 Post subject: Re: For Econo about last night's Pirates/Nationals game
PostPosted: Sat May 03, 2008 8:23 am 
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He's just about on the level of a well-hitting pitcher, hitting .242/.273 in the majors.

Quick and dirty via the Win Expectancy Finder:

Nationals Win Probability before Nieves: .669
After the bunt: .657
First and second, no out: .744
First, one out: .624

Now if we assume a weak single/walk is the best probable outcome, and Nieves has a career .242 OBP, the average win probability would be around .653 if he were to swing away.

Now Manny Acta doesn't carry a win expectancy table and a pocket calculator with him. It was a split-second decision, and most probably a good one.


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 Post subject: Re: For Econo about last night's Pirates/Nationals game
PostPosted: Sat May 03, 2008 9:14 am 
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Outcome probabilities are the most useful stat, for me.

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: For Econo about last night's Pirates/Nationals game
PostPosted: Sat May 03, 2008 12:24 pm 
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Willton wrote:
Are you sure it was Acta that called for the bunt, or did Nieves act on his own volition?


Econo -
The notion that Nieves would have made a unilateral decision to execute a sacrifice bunt is very much a stretch. LoDuca is just off the DL; Nieves is hitting the ball well and he would do something that is not called by the manager??
No . . . that's not happening.
But . . to be fair to you, I went back to my TiVo. Nieves clearly looked down to the third base coach to get signals before he dropped down the bunt. Perhaps the third base coach was calling for the bunt to Acta's dismay and disbelief?

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No. 9
Obsessive proponent of situational bunting and 2 strike hitting approaches, reflexively pro-catchers calling good games and tasteless proponent of the value of a RBI.


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 Post subject: Re: For Econo about last night's Pirates/Nationals game
PostPosted: Sat May 03, 2008 4:39 pm 
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No. 9, I have no idea. Given this information, you're probably right in implying that Acta called for it. Was it a good idea? According to Bukanier's info, it probably was. Would I have done it? Probably not. But with a hitter as bad as Nieves, I could understand doing so.

If Acta had ordered the sac bunt with someone like Milledge, however, I would have been shocked and dismayed.

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 Post subject: Re: For Econo about last night's Pirates/Nationals game
PostPosted: Sat May 03, 2008 8:51 pm 
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No. 9 wrote:
Bottom of the 7th . . . game is tied 2-2. Wily Mo Pena leads off the bottom of the 7th inning with a single. Wil Nieves coming to bat. Nieves singled in 2 runs in the 2nd inning and walked in the 4th inning. PH on deck for Odalis Perez. Nieves had 10 hits in his previous 18 ABs; clearly he is swinging a hot bat.

Nationals' manager is Manny Acta.

What does he do? Calls for the sacrifice bunt.

I immediately thought of the quote that used to be attached to the bottom of your signature attributed to Acta . . . wasn't it something to the effect of the sacrifice bunt being outdated? I know that it made reference to (I believe) the 3rd inning but I found it relatively interesting that Acta was essentially making a move where he thought that he had a better chance to score a run to get ahead of the Bucs in the bottom of the 7th by sacrificing his hottest hitter - particularly in light of what was contained in the quote.


http://www.baseball-reference.com/n/nievewi01.shtml

Will Nieves lifetime, including his recent hot streak

Avg .198, OBP .242, Slugging .273, OPS .515

Just as I have no problem with using the sacrifice when a pitcher is batting, I also have no trouble with using it when a guy who hits like a pitcher is batting.

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 Post subject: Re: For Econo about last night's Pirates/Nationals game
PostPosted: Sat May 03, 2008 9:47 pm 
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sisyphus wrote:
Will Nieves lifetime, including his recent hot streak

Avg .198, OBP .242, Slugging .273, OPS .515


WN: "Hello? This is Will."

AL: "Hi, Will, I'm a major league first baseman who needs hitting advice. I see that your current lifetime OPS is higher than my OPS this season, even after my two-single barrage in today's game. I was wondering if you could give me some hitting tips ..."

WN: "Is this a joke?"

AL: "Unfortunately, no. I am really stinking up the joint and am hoping to get on a hot streak to boost my seasonal OPS over .500."

WN: "I don't really think that I am someone who should be giving hitting advice, so ..."

AL: "Oh, well, if you change your mind, call my agent and publicist, Mr. Sisyphus, care of the UPPMB."


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 Post subject: Re: For Econo about last night's Pirates/Nationals game
PostPosted: Mon May 05, 2008 3:51 pm 
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Quote:
Econo -
The notion that Nieves would have made a unilateral decision to execute a sacrifice bunt is very much a stretch. LoDuca is just off the DL; Nieves is hitting the ball well and he would do something that is not called by the manager??
No . . . that's not happening.
But . . to be fair to you, I went back to my TiVo. Nieves clearly looked down to the third base coach to get signals before he dropped down the bunt. Perhaps the third base coach was calling for the bunt to Acta's dismay and disbelief?


Econo? Who is this Econo guy?? LOL


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 Post subject: Re: For Econo about last night's Pirates/Nationals game
PostPosted: Mon May 05, 2008 4:06 pm 
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Piratefan13 wrote:
Quote:
Econo -
The notion that Nieves would have made a unilateral decision to execute a sacrifice bunt is very much a stretch. LoDuca is just off the DL; Nieves is hitting the ball well and he would do something that is not called by the manager??
No . . . that's not happening.
But . . to be fair to you, I went back to my TiVo. Nieves clearly looked down to the third base coach to get signals before he dropped down the bunt. Perhaps the third base coach was calling for the bunt to Acta's dismay and disbelief?


Econo? Who is this Econo guy?? LOL

Never heard of him. ;)

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