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 Post subject: I'd show Huntington the door for this guy...
PostPosted: Sat Jun 19, 2010 9:00 am 
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http://www.forbes.com/2010/06/15/cincin ... =rss_story

Check out the results for GM Walt Jocketty. I'm envious, to say the least.

And I fully agree that statistics and sabermetrics should be important, but secondary, when it comes to scouting.

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 Post subject: Re: I'd show Huntington the door for this guy...
PostPosted: Sat Jun 19, 2010 3:05 pm 
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J_C_Steel wrote:
And I fully agree that statistics and sabermetrics should be important, but secondary, when it comes to scouting.

The author of the article and you are both waling on a straw man. The idea that statistical analysis replaces scouting is an invention made to give a theme to the article ("See, scouting works, sabremetrics doesn't!").

The problem with that argument is that it is completely false. No team abandons scouting in favor of statistical analysis. What teams have done is evaluate the performance of players in part based upon statistical analysis, including most importantly the performance as professional players. In that capacity, the front office will give more weight to OBP than batting average, and more importance to a pitcher's K rate, WHIP and low walk totals than W-L record.

Also, the article conveniently criticizes "sabremetrics" decisions made by former Toronto GM Riccardi, and the current Arizona GM, while remaining mum on the fact that 4 of the past 6 World Series winners (Boston 2004, 2007; Philadelphia 2008; NY Yankees 2009) utilize statistical analysis and "sabremetrics" as a large part of their analytical process.

Finally, the author is demonstrably wrong in suggesting that a statistical analysis would have made Chris Carpenter uninteresting to "sabremetrics" teams. Carpenter had a relatively low walk rate, good K rate, but was plagued by HR's during his tenure in Toronto. Sabremetric analysis does not focus on W-L record or hits allowed as much as the good K rate, low walk rate, and ability to avoid giving up HR's.

The HR's allowed are going to be a hell of a lot higher in the AL East, where Carpenter was pitching, than in the NL. Sabremetricians would have been interested in Carpenter. Scouts are clearly, obviously, and regularly relied upon as well, and also would have given Carpenter good reviews given his plus velocity, good command and solid curve ball.

This article is no different than me writing up the fine performances of the Red Sox, Yankees, Phils, and suggesting that the flawed "scouting" approach had doomed the also-rans like the Dodgers (who canned a sabremetrics guy years ago), Giants, Cubs, etc.


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 Post subject: Re: I'd show Huntington the door for this guy...
PostPosted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 8:38 pm 
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Here's the question...

Is Neal Huntington a better or worse GM than Walt Jocketty?

I would posit that Huntington is worse. And that is why, if I owned the Pirates and Jocketty were available, I'd go get him.

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 Post subject: Re: I'd show Huntington the door for this guy...
PostPosted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 8:42 pm 
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J_C_Steel wrote:
Here's the question...

Is Neal Huntington a better or worse GM than Walt Jocketty?

I would posit that Huntington is worse. And that is why, if I owned the Pirates and Jocketty were available, I'd go get him.

Well if all you wanted to say was that, then the citation of the article strikes me as a bit gratuitous. You don't need to cite articles that are completely wrong-headed if all you want to do is show how much better Jocketty's record is compared to Huntington's.

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 Post subject: Re: I'd show Huntington the door for this guy...
PostPosted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 8:44 pm 
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Willton wrote:
J_C_Steel wrote:
Here's the question...

Is Neal Huntington a better or worse GM than Walt Jocketty?

I would posit that Huntington is worse. And that is why, if I owned the Pirates and Jocketty were available, I'd go get him.


Well if all you wanted to say was that, then the citation of the article strikes me as a bit gratuitous. You don't need to cite articles that are completely wrong-headed if all you want to do is show how much better Jocketty's record is compared to Huntington's.


It's "gratuitous" to cite an article about Walt Jocketty's successes -- even if it includes elements with which you and Bucfan do not agree -- when I'm suggesting that I'd show Huntington the door for him? Really?

I'd say it's "directly relevant" to my point.

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 Post subject: Re: I'd show Huntington the door for this guy...
PostPosted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 11:59 pm 
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J_C_Steel wrote:
It's "gratuitous" to cite an article about Walt Jocketty's successes -- even if it includes elements with which you and Bucfan do not agree -- when I'm suggesting that I'd show Huntington the door for him?


*Ahem*

If I may...

Since the Reds and Jocketty are the comparison, lets do some analysis and break some of this 'praise' down upon both of them, shall we?:

Quote:
Among his other moves in Cincinnati: unloading slugger Adam Dunn and hometown idol Ken Griffey Jr. in favor of building pitching depth, and investing $30 million in 22-year-old Cuban pitching phenom Ardolis Chapman, whom the Reds are expected to call up from the minor leagues later this season. Jocketty also acquired productive veterans Scott Rolen, Orlando Cabrera and Johnny Gomes, all of whom have played on World Series teams and who make a mere $10.4 million this year collectively. A final piece of irony: the Reds' revamped lineup leads the National League in on-base-plus-slugging percentage, that measure of power and on-base acumen so near and dear to every sabremetrician's heart


Ken Griffey obviously needed to be traded. However, the return for him was not a motherload. Nick Masset may be the Reds setup man, but he is not very good at it: 6.06 ERA in 32 IP this year (I should know, I had him on one of my fantasy teams... had). Danny Richar is still in AAA. GRADE: C+

Trading Dunn probably had to be done (sorry for the Pun), but the move is curious considering the praise lavished upon Jocketty in this article. Statisically, Dunn is better than Johnny Gomes (and only one year older) only he has a higher price tag (and a longer and better hitting history). Also, other than Micah Owings, the other players acquired for Dunn have yet to contribute for the Reds (Dallas Buck and Wilton Castillo). So really, if the Reds had just KEPT Dunn and not signed Gomes, would they really be much better/worse? GRADE: C

Aroldis Chapman may one day be the real deal, but right now he is pure potential. Lets not count chickens here, lest I be forced to remind everyone of Ryan Anderson or Brien Taylor. GRADE: B+

While Gomes had a good rookie campaign, he is having his best year to date. He's entering his prime, so maybe the best is yet to come, but the Reds got a little luck on this one (and again, I don't see how this is a great move when they could have just kept Adam Dunn). GRADE: C

He got lucky with Rolen, who is having his best season since 2006. There was nothing to suggest Rolen would have such a great year and it was just as likely that Rolen would regress and become a Joe Randa for the Reds. Also praise should be reserved considering that all three players Jocketty traded were 8-10 years YOUNGER than Rolen. While Edwin Encarnacio flamed out for the Jays, the jury is still out on the other two players acquired from the Reds: Josh Roenicke and Zach Stewart. GRADE: B-

Orlando Cabrera's best years are [more than likely] behind him. Although he is a historically good SS playing a position where good players are hard to come by, his stats are not overwhelming this year: 3 HR, 27 RBI, .240, .281/.329/.610. GRADE: C+

OVERALL GRADE: C+... maybe a B-

He caught a break that Rolen isn't washed up, although he is still 35... so is Cabrera. Gomes is a lateral move from Dunn... maybe less so. Chapman is a question mark, with the potential to be an exclamation point.

And other than Chapman, none of the players (prospects) he's acquired are being touted as the next big thing nor are they currently contributing @ a major league level.

So really... I mean none of the moves he's made have been bad, but are they all that great?

Lets just say that I don't think Tony the Tiger will be making an appearance here.

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 Post subject: Re: I'd show Huntington the door for this guy...
PostPosted: Tue Jun 29, 2010 12:25 am 
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Nice analysis by NS. In my view, the article is (1) based on a false premise, as I discussed, and (2) generally inaccurate, as NS detailed.


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 Post subject: Re: I'd show Huntington the door for this guy...
PostPosted: Tue Jun 29, 2010 9:26 am 
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For the record, Dunn and Griffey were moved as much for locker room chemistry than anything else, as posited in SI earlier this year.

Signing Rolen was as much about locker room chemistry as anything else, as posited in SI.

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: I'd show Huntington the door for this guy...
PostPosted: Tue Jun 29, 2010 10:47 am 
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So are you guys forgetting that he was the GM in St. Louis and drafted Albert Pujols? That he built a team that won a World Series and multiple division titles?

But yeah, his achievements are pretty minimal.

Could you people please answer the question?

Who would you rather have as GM of the Pittsburgh Pirates:

1) Neal Huntington, or
2) Walt Jocketty


Just answer, and tell me why.

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 Post subject: Re: I'd show Huntington the door for this guy...
PostPosted: Tue Jun 29, 2010 10:51 am 
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NSMaster56 wrote:
J_C_Steel wrote:
It's "gratuitous" to cite an article about Walt Jocketty's successes -- even if it includes elements with which you and Bucfan do not agree -- when I'm suggesting that I'd show Huntington the door for him?


*Ahem*

If I may...

Since the Reds and Jocketty are the comparison, lets do some analysis and break some of this 'praise' down upon both of them, shall we?:

Quote:
Among his other moves in Cincinnati: unloading slugger Adam Dunn and hometown idol Ken Griffey Jr. in favor of building pitching depth, and investing $30 million in 22-year-old Cuban pitching phenom Ardolis Chapman, whom the Reds are expected to call up from the minor leagues later this season. Jocketty also acquired productive veterans Scott Rolen, Orlando Cabrera and Johnny Gomes, all of whom have played on World Series teams and who make a mere $10.4 million this year collectively. A final piece of irony: the Reds' revamped lineup leads the National League in on-base-plus-slugging percentage, that measure of power and on-base acumen so near and dear to every sabremetrician's heart


Ken Griffey obviously needed to be traded. However, the return for him was not a motherload. Nick Masset may be the Reds setup man, but he is not very good at it: 6.06 ERA in 32 IP this year (I should know, I had him on one of my fantasy teams... had). Danny Richar is still in AAA. GRADE: C+

Trading Dunn probably had to be done (sorry for the Pun), but the move is curious considering the praise lavished upon Jocketty in this article. Statisically, Dunn is better than Johnny Gomes (and only one year older) only he has a higher price tag (and a longer and better hitting history). Also, other than Micah Owings, the other players acquired for Dunn have yet to contribute for the Reds (Dallas Buck and Wilton Castillo). So really, if the Reds had just KEPT Dunn and not signed Gomes, would they really be much better/worse? GRADE: C

Aroldis Chapman may one day be the real deal, but right now he is pure potential. Lets not count chickens here, lest I be forced to remind everyone of Ryan Anderson or Brien Taylor. GRADE: B+

While Gomes had a good rookie campaign, he is having his best year to date. He's entering his prime, so maybe the best is yet to come, but the Reds got a little luck on this one (and again, I don't see how this is a great move when they could have just kept Adam Dunn). GRADE: C

He got lucky with Rolen, who is having his best season since 2006. There was nothing to suggest Rolen would have such a great year and it was just as likely that Rolen would regress and become a Joe Randa for the Reds. Also praise should be reserved considering that all three players Jocketty traded were 8-10 years YOUNGER than Rolen. While Edwin Encarnacio flamed out for the Jays, the jury is still out on the other two players acquired from the Reds: Josh Roenicke and Zach Stewart. GRADE: B-

Orlando Cabrera's best years are [more than likely] behind him. Although he is a historically good SS playing a position where good players are hard to come by, his stats are not overwhelming this year: 3 HR, 27 RBI, .240, .281/.329/.610. GRADE: C+

OVERALL GRADE: C+... maybe a B-

He caught a break that Rolen isn't washed up, although he is still 35... so is Cabrera. Gomes is a lateral move from Dunn... maybe less so. Chapman is a question mark, with the potential to be an exclamation point.

And other than Chapman, none of the players (prospects) he's acquired are being touted as the next big thing nor are they currently contributing @ a major league level.

So really... I mean none of the moves he's made have been bad, but are they all that great?

Lets just say that I don't think Tony the Tiger will be making an appearance here.


So, Walt Jocketty got "lucky" with Rolen and had some "luck" with Gomes. No skill there. Just luck.

And the millions he saved for the team by unloading Dunn and having Gomes perform at a similar level doesn't really matter, because he could have just kept Dunn.

Real solid critique there, my friend.

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 Post subject: Re: I'd show Huntington the door for this guy...
PostPosted: Tue Jun 29, 2010 11:04 am 
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NH, for now.

And, here is why.

Jocketty is the kind of GM that trades and uses existing talent (already put in place before him both in St. Louis, and Cin) to put together a champions run.

In the process he depletes the minor leagues (check out St. Louis now) and gets talented vets for young talent.

He is good at getting the team over the hump, and keeping it there for a while by continually bringing in Rolen-types and recognizing good reclamation projects and the occasional latin import.

He can do this as until the core of his team gets old, as in St. Louis, then he moves on.

NH builds teams a la Cleveland.

PBC needs a NH now, not a Jocketty.

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: I'd show Huntington the door for this guy...
PostPosted: Tue Jun 29, 2010 11:17 am 
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Jocketty built a solid core in St. Louis through the draft, my friend, including Albert Pujols.

You don't believe that Jocketty could draft successfully and then trade when the iron is hot? That's what all of us expect NH to do, right? Build through the draft and then make savvy trades once the PBC's young arms develop?

Have NH's trades been "savvy" thus far? NS did an analysis of Jocketty's trades and gave them mediocre ratings. I'd LOVE to see NS's analysis of NH's trades. How 'bout it, NS?

Finally, at the end of the day, Jocketty is currently the GM of a team with a payroll in the lower third of MLB (for the record, the Reds are 21st out of the 30 teams in player payroll at approximately $68M) and currently in first place in the NL Central ahead of a team spending $25M more than them (St. Louis).

I can't believe that you'd honestly rather have NH over a guy who built a World Series champion and whose track record includes being a successful GM since 1994. And remember, NH wasn't even the GM in Cleveland -- he was the "assistant" to the GM (2002-04) and then the "special assistant" to the GM (2006-07). And, if you're inclined to give NH credit for Cleveland's successes during his time there, you should note the shape that Cleveland was left in after NH left -- Cleveland had a .500 season in 2008, lost 97 games in 2009 and is currently mired in last place in the AL Central in 2010.

All in all, I don't see ANYTHING in their respective track records to suggest that NH would be a better GM than Jocketty in any situation or in any way.

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 Post subject: Re: I'd show Huntington the door for this guy...
PostPosted: Tue Jun 29, 2010 11:24 am 
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ZelieMike wrote:
Jocketty is the kind of GM that trades and uses existing talent (already put in place before him both in St. Louis, and Cin) to put together a champions run.


Wait a second.

Please tell me the existing talent already in place in St. Louis when Jocketty took over as GM in 1994. Especially the talent that was there in 1994 that allowed the Cardinals to win the 2006 World Series.

Jocketty built the Cardinals well and was the GM of the team for 13 years (1994-2007). Over that time, the team won seven division titles, two National League titles and a World Series.

I wouldn't mind giving Jocketty 13 years with the Pirates to see what he can do...

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 Post subject: Re: I'd show Huntington the door for this guy...
PostPosted: Tue Jun 29, 2010 11:29 am 
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Pujols was a lucky pick that no one saw coming. Jocketty is lying if he says so. He built St. Louis by bringing in guys like Carpenter off the scrap heap.

And, have you checked the state of St. Louis now? Why do you think he was shown the door?

Are you suggesting he "built" Cincinnati. That team was drafted and prepped, and simply waiting for him when he came in.

You asked for the reason. You got it. I stand by it.

Jocketty left St. Louis system in shambles. He is a finisher.

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: I'd show Huntington the door for this guy...
PostPosted: Tue Jun 29, 2010 11:42 am 
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Seems to me that there is a lot of negatives here about the Reds. No matter what is said, they are in first place in our division and something changed there to make that happen. They have a much higher salary then the Pirates when only a couple years ago they were only slightly higher. There should be no question that they have brought up some very good talent in the last couple seasons to go with some big FAs. Is that luck? Maybe some but talent recognition must be credited for the improvement.

Maybe we're headed the that same direction but we are no where near there yet and need to have our kids start to pitch, not only at AA but these last two draft classes. And our position players gain some necessary experience. It will take time if the plan works.

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 Post subject: Re: I'd show Huntington the door for this guy...
PostPosted: Tue Jun 29, 2010 11:44 am 
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We are about 2 years behind Cincinnati. DL was trying to win with his Moskos pick while Cin was drafting and developing guys like Votto.

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: I'd show Huntington the door for this guy...
PostPosted: Tue Jun 29, 2010 12:05 pm 
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ZelieMike wrote:
Pujols was a lucky pick that no one saw coming. Jocketty is lying if he says so. He built St. Louis by bringing in guys like Carpenter off the scrap heap.

And, have you checked the state of St. Louis now? Why do you think he was shown the door?

Are you suggesting he "built" Cincinnati. That team was drafted and prepped, and simply waiting for him when he came in.

You asked for the reason. You got it. I stand by it.

Jocketty left St. Louis system in shambles. He is a finisher.

ZM


How did NH leave Cleveland? Are they in good shape?

But more importantly, Jocketty did not come in as a "finisher" in St. Louis. He arrived in 1994. He built that team up. Later in his tenure, the team got older and he was focused more on major league success than the minors. Nothing wrong with that -- major league success is the GOAL. And his St. Louis teams won seven division titles, two National League titles and a World Series championship.

What did NH's "teams" (I put quotes around it because he wasn't even the actual GM) do in Cleveland?

And finally, I love the "luck" explanation. Jocketty isn't good! He's just lucky! He got lucky with Pujols and with Rolen and with Gomes. Right. I guess the Pirates couldn't use that kind of "luck"...

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 Post subject: Re: I'd show Huntington the door for this guy...
PostPosted: Tue Jun 29, 2010 12:07 pm 
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ZelieMike wrote:
We are about 2 years behind Cincinnati. DL was trying to win with his Moskos pick while Cin was drafting and developing guys like Votto.

ZM


I'll remember this quote. And if the Pirates aren't in first place in the NL Central in 2012, I'll remind you of it.

You believe in Neal Huntington. I get that.

I believe in results. And Walt Jocketty produced results. That's why I'd rather see him at the helm.

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 Post subject: Re: I'd show Huntington the door for this guy...
PostPosted: Tue Jun 29, 2010 12:07 pm 
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World Series once. Several Divsional titles.

If you don't think Cleveland is a model to follow, your nuts.

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: I'd show Huntington the door for this guy...
PostPosted: Tue Jun 29, 2010 12:12 pm 
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ZelieMike wrote:
World Series once. Several Divsional titles.

If you don't think Cleveland is a model to follow, your nuts.

ZM


CORRECTION: The Indians went to a World Series during NH's tenure as an assistant, they did not win it. Just to be clear. So that's one American League title, not one World Series.

And you credit all that to the "assistant" (or, for some years, the "special assisant") to the GM? Really?

:lol:

I guess seven division titles (including six in a seven-year span), two National League titles and one World Series championship in 13 years isn't a "model to follow." I mean, all Jocketty did there was get "lucky" and pick guys off the scrap heap.

You are hilarious.

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