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 Post subject: Re: 6/10/08 Pirates vs. Nats
PostPosted: Wed Jun 11, 2008 8:10 pm 
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Ralphie wrote:
Capps has been successful because he throws strikes. His stuff has worked well so far, and will continue to do so. That doesn't mean he is unhittable. But he can and will make adjustments and continue to be successful. He is the real deal, despite having velocity that is a little less than the average closer.


Look, I like the guy but he is far from proven as a closer. I like that he isn't a nibbler. I can't stand guys like that. However, if your fastball is straight as an arrow(wish he'd throw more two seamers) and only 92 mph and you are pounding the strike zone with it, it stands to reason you will eventually start getting hit, and hit hard.

My point isn't that he CAN'T be a good closer, but that he will need to adjust his approach in order to be a good closer. So I hope you are right about him making adjustments because he is one of my favorite guys to watch on the team. But his current approach flusters me at times.


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 Post subject: Re: 6/10/08 Pirates vs. Nats
PostPosted: Wed Jun 11, 2008 9:25 pm 
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PirateParrot wrote:
Ralphie wrote:
Capps has been successful because he throws strikes. His stuff has worked well so far, and will continue to do so. That doesn't mean he is unhittable. But he can and will make adjustments and continue to be successful. He is the real deal, despite having velocity that is a little less than the average closer.


Look, I like the guy but he is far from proven as a closer. I like that he isn't a nibbler. I can't stand guys like that. However, if your fastball is straight as an arrow(wish he'd throw more two seamers) and only 92 mph and you are pounding the strike zone with it, it stands to reason you will eventually start getting hit, and hit hard.

My point isn't that he CAN'T be a good closer, but that he will need to adjust his approach in order to be a good closer. So I hope you are right about him making adjustments because he is one of my favorite guys to watch on the team. But his current approach flusters me at times.

The guy has almost 200 major league innings with an ERA 44% better than the league average. He doesn't give up a ton of hits, walks nobody, and has a fairly good number of strikeouts. How many years of that kind of pitching will it take to convince you?

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 Post subject: Re: 6/10/08 Pirates vs. Nats
PostPosted: Wed Jun 11, 2008 11:56 pm 
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sisyphus wrote:
The guy has almost 200 major league innings with an ERA 44% better than the league average. He doesn't give up a ton of hits, walks nobody, and has a fairly good number of strikeouts. How many years of that kind of pitching will it take to convince you?


He has been a closer less than 2 years. God forbid you look beyond the stat line. He has been hit pretty hard some games this year. I know the bottom line is to get 3 outs, but eventually(as it did last night) some of those hard hit balls are going to find holes and cost him. And yes he is entitled to have a bad game, but some games he saved this year he was lucky balls were hit right at people. There were a lot of people who thought Mike Gonzalez was the next great closer because he had a good string of saves. Now it's Capps. This is where I disagree with you. It takes a lot longer than 2 years for guys to establish themselves as top of the line closers.

And let me say it again...I LIKE THE GUY! He is one of my favorite guys on the team. I like his mentality of not messing around, get the ball, throw the ball. I'd just like his approach better if he threw 98 or had more movement on his ball. At 92 straight as an arrow I'm afraid this approach will eventually catch up to him. It already appears teams are changing their approach to swing early because they know he likes to throw first pitch fastballs over the plate. I acknowledge that his career numbers are good. But teams and hitters adjust and he will have to adjust too. I just have a gut feeling teams are figuring him out a little. Sorry I don't have a fancy stat to roll out to back that up.


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 Post subject: Re: 6/10/08 Pirates vs. Nats
PostPosted: Thu Jun 12, 2008 7:46 pm 
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PirateParrot wrote:
sisyphus wrote:
The guy has almost 200 major league innings with an ERA 44% better than the league average. He doesn't give up a ton of hits, walks nobody, and has a fairly good number of strikeouts. How many years of that kind of pitching will it take to convince you?


He has been a closer less than 2 years. God forbid you look beyond the stat line. He has been hit pretty hard some games this year. I know the bottom line is to get 3 outs, but eventually(as it did last night) some of those hard hit balls are going to find holes and cost him. And yes he is entitled to have a bad game, but some games he saved this year he was lucky balls were hit right at people. There were a lot of people who thought Mike Gonzalez was the next great closer because he had a good string of saves. Now it's Capps. This is where I disagree with you. It takes a lot longer than 2 years for guys to establish themselves as top of the line closers.

And let me say it again...I LIKE THE GUY! He is one of my favorite guys on the team. I like his mentality of not messing around, get the ball, throw the ball. I'd just like his approach better if he threw 98 or had more movement on his ball. At 92 straight as an arrow I'm afraid this approach will eventually catch up to him. It already appears teams are changing their approach to swing early because they know he likes to throw first pitch fastballs over the plate. I acknowledge that his career numbers are good. But teams and hitters adjust and he will have to adjust too. I just have a gut feeling teams are figuring him out a little. Sorry I don't have a fancy stat to roll out to back that up.

I understand that you like the guy. I criticize players that I like on occasion.

For two and a half seasons so far the guy has pretty much done nothing but throw fastballs for strikes. Everybody had him figured out by the end of his first season. My guess is that his fastball has a lot better movement on it than we can see from TV. And anyone who might go up there sitting on his fastball had better watch out, because he's starting to work a changeup into the mix.

As far as closers go, there are only two types of pitchers: those who start games and those who pitch in relief. It doesn't take more talent to retire the 6th, 7th and 8th hitters in the ninth inning with a three run lead than it does to get out numbers 3, 4 and 5 in the eighth inning. There is nothing magical about inning number nine. The best thing about the closer fetish is that some teams will overpay for decent relievers in trades just because they've racked up saves.

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 Post subject: Re: 6/10/08 Pirates vs. Nats
PostPosted: Thu Jun 12, 2008 8:02 pm 
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Analyze him, criticize him all you want. He has 15 saves out of 16 tries. That's a bingo.
What happened after the blown save? He said he wanted in badly the next night to redeem himself to his teammates. And he did.

Sometimes heart and desire make up for flaws in other areas. I'll take him and go to war with anyone, anytime. He's my kinda guy. And he 's the kind of guy who brings people out to the ball yard to see him play.

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 Post subject: Re: 6/10/08 Pirates vs. Nats
PostPosted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 9:07 am 
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Ah, the old, there is no differance between the 7 or 8th, and the 9th arguement.

An arguement that wholly dismisses the (intangible) of pressure to win. An arguement the genius GM in Bosox nation believed, and even staffed for, and then dismantled in less than a season because, gasp, there is a differance.

But, I suppose statistically describing a mentality is too hard to do.

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: 6/10/08 Pirates vs. Nats
PostPosted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 11:49 am 
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Attitude is where Capps is great. He has the perfect mentality to be a closer. Getting the last 3 outs of a game is more mental than anything. I don't worry about his mentality of wanting the ball, but his approach.

Sisy, I disagree. Unless he changes before his next outing, watch Capps. 99% of his pitches are fastballs. And at 92 mph and straight he better be putting them in real good spots, not just down the middle. He throws his change up rarely. He has been successful, no doubt. My point is that he has been getting hit harder of late. Luckily for him a lot of balls have found Pirate gloves. And if he wants to continue to be successful he will need to adjust as the hitters clearly are. What he has done is great. But watching him makes me nervous for the future if he does not continue to "tweak" his approach. Hopefully he will continue to be successful....I"m just a bit concerned watching him.



Sisy, in theory I agree that whether it's the 6th inning or the 9th inning you have to get guys out. I totally agree that facing the bottom of the order in the ninth should be far easier than the heart of the order in the eighth. But for some reason mentally some guys can't handle getting the last 3 outs of a game consistently. I actually remember Blass and Walk talking about this very thing. I wonder if all of the "specialization" in baseball has caused players to take a different mental approach. Obviously not Marte! He said he doesn't think about the inning, 8th or 9th. "This is what you do: Throw the ball to home plate." Sounds like another guy who has a great mental approach.


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 Post subject: Re: 6/10/08 Pirates vs. Nats
PostPosted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 3:34 pm 
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ZelieMike wrote:
Ah, the old, there is no differance between the 7 or 8th, and the 9th arguement.

An arguement that wholly dismisses the (intangible) of pressure to win.


Your argument dismisses the fact that there is pressure to win in innings 1-8.

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An arguement the genius GM in Bosox nation believed, and even staffed for, and then dismantled in less than a season because, gasp, there is a differance.


The experiment in Boston didn't fail because there is a difference between the eighth and ninth innings. It failed because they had mediocre relief pitchers. You want your best pitcher to be on the mound when the game is on the line, and that happens in the 7th or 8th innings just as often as it happens in the 9th. The current closer fetish was invented from whole cloth just because some sportswriter invented the save statistic. Baseball did just fine for over 100 years without closers.

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 Post subject: Re: 6/10/08 Pirates vs. Nats
PostPosted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 3:46 pm 
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PirateParrot wrote:
Attitude is where Capps is great. He has the perfect mentality to be a closer. Getting the last 3 outs of a game is more mental than anything. I don't worry about his mentality of wanting the ball, but his approach.

Sisy, I disagree. Unless he changes before his next outing, watch Capps. 99% of his pitches are fastballs. And at 92 mph and straight he better be putting them in real good spots, not just down the middle.


There is no hitter in the major leagues who cannot pound a straight 92 mph fastball. There is no pitcher in the major leagues who succeeds by throwing straight 92 mph fastballs. That's why I say that there must be something about Capps' fastball that we aren't seeing on TV.

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He throws his change up rarely.


That isn't my impression, especially against lefties.

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He has been successful, no doubt. My point is that he has been getting hit harder of late. Luckily for him a lot of balls have found Pirate gloves. And if he wants to continue to be successful he will need to adjust as the hitters clearly are. What he has done is great. But watching him makes me nervous for the future if he does not continue to "tweak" his approach. Hopefully he will continue to be successful....I"m just a bit concerned watching him.


I just can't agree that it takes major league hitters two and a half seasons to make the necessary adjustments to pound a straight 92 mph fastball. I'll start worrying when Capps starts giving up a lot of runs, and I'd be willing to bet that he'll start mixing in a changeup or slider more and more often if that starts to happen.

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Sisy, in theory I agree that whether it's the 6th inning or the 9th inning you have to get guys out. I totally agree that facing the bottom of the order in the ninth should be far easier than the heart of the order in the eighth. But for some reason mentally some guys can't handle getting the last 3 outs of a game consistently.


That may well be the case for some pitchers. I doubt that it's the case for MOST pitchers, though.

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I actually remember Blass and Walk talking about this very thing. I wonder if all of the "specialization" in baseball has caused players to take a different mental approach. Obviously not Marte! He said he doesn't think about the inning, 8th or 9th. "This is what you do: Throw the ball to home plate." Sounds like another guy who has a great mental approach.

You may have a point there. Specialization may have caused some pitchers to develop a different mental attitude to pitching in the ninth with a small lead. But I doubt that it applies to most pitchers.

If I was managing a team I'd use my best pitcher when the game is on the line, and I'd use somebody else to soak up easy saves, thereby giving a false high market value based on the save stat for an otherwise ordinary relief pitcher, who I would eventually trade.

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