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 Post subject: Re: LaRoche Sucks
PostPosted: Fri Jun 06, 2008 9:41 pm 
sisyphus wrote:
Because predicting future production on recent history instead on established production levels doesn't work.


How do you know? You just got done "explaining" how there's no way to tell what a player will do tomorrow.

The way I see it, if player A is hitting and player B is not, you can hurt nothing by playing player A. When he stops hitting, then stop playing him.


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 Post subject: Re: LaRoche Sucks
PostPosted: Fri Jun 06, 2008 9:54 pm 
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sisyphus wrote:
I keep saying it because that's what a lot of people are doing.


So you're saying people are wrong to be doing that because he has been so superior to how he has been doing the last 10 days, and the only "slump" he has been in recent games?

sisyphus wrote:
So let me ask you, if next week LaRoche hits 6 homers, bats .400, and drives in boatloads of runs, will you be saying that he is better than Willie Stargell? Of course not, and it is equally ridiculous to be comparing him to Simon, Casey and Ward right now.


... not what I meant at all and I'm not even going to try to continue that argument.

sisyphus wrote:
It's similar, but not exactly the same. I'm not calling for Sanchez to be benched. Do you notice who the people are that argue the most vigorously in support of Sanchez? The very same people who are burying LaRoche. Don't you notice anything wrong with that picture? And I'm not calling for the Pirates to bench Sanchez and play Rivas, which would be about the same as arguing that LaRoche should be benched for Michaels. I just want to see him lower in the batting order until he gets himself back to normal, just as I was for dropping LaRoche in the order earlier this season. Anyone who prefers Michaels to LaRoche should also prefer Rivas to Sanchez using their own logic. I've got news for all of you: it is more likely that Freddy Sanchez is washed up as a ML hitter than it is that LaRoche is washed up. He's two years older. I don't happen to believe that either of them is washed up.


I know your point here, but I'm really not here to argue about the people who say this and that and who support who and don't support who. And really, I'm not anyone you're referring to here whether it be starting Michaels or benching Sanchez. Or if I am, I sure didn't know who I was.


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 Post subject: Re: LaRoche Sucks
PostPosted: Fri Jun 06, 2008 10:03 pm 
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Elmer wrote:
sisyphus wrote:
Because predicting future production on recent history instead on established production levels doesn't work.


How do you know? You just got done "explaining" how there's no way to tell what a player will do tomorrow.

The way I see it, if player A is hitting and player B is not, you can hurt nothing by playing player A. When he stops hitting, then stop playing him.

I could give you a whole list of books to read that will explain things quite nicely, but I doubt that you'd bother to read them.

Let's try explaining it another way. If I flip an honest two sided coin one hundred time, and it comes up heads all one hundred times, how many times will it come up heads in the next 10 flips, and why?

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 Post subject: Re: LaRoche Sucks
PostPosted: Fri Jun 06, 2008 10:06 pm 
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TheShark wrote:
sisyphus wrote:
I keep saying it because that's what a lot of people are doing.


So you're saying people are wrong to be doing that because he has been so superior to how he has been doing the last 10 days, and the only "slump" he has been in recent games?

sisyphus wrote:
So let me ask you, if next week LaRoche hits 6 homers, bats .400, and drives in boatloads of runs, will you be saying that he is better than Willie Stargell? Of course not, and it is equally ridiculous to be comparing him to Simon, Casey and Ward right now.


... not what I meant at all and I'm not even going to try to continue that argument.

sisyphus wrote:
It's similar, but not exactly the same. I'm not calling for Sanchez to be benched. Do you notice who the people are that argue the most vigorously in support of Sanchez? The very same people who are burying LaRoche. Don't you notice anything wrong with that picture? And I'm not calling for the Pirates to bench Sanchez and play Rivas, which would be about the same as arguing that LaRoche should be benched for Michaels. I just want to see him lower in the batting order until he gets himself back to normal, just as I was for dropping LaRoche in the order earlier this season. Anyone who prefers Michaels to LaRoche should also prefer Rivas to Sanchez using their own logic. I've got news for all of you: it is more likely that Freddy Sanchez is washed up as a ML hitter than it is that LaRoche is washed up. He's two years older. I don't happen to believe that either of them is washed up.


I know your point here, but I'm really not here to argue about the people who say this and that and who support who and don't support who. And really, I'm not anyone you're referring to here whether it be starting Michaels or benching Sanchez. Or if I am, I sure didn't know who I was.

No, you're not one of the people I was referring to.

It's good that you didn't want to continue the argument above, because it would be unsustainable on your part. It's silly to try and project future production on recent history.

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 Post subject: Re: LaRoche Sucks
PostPosted: Fri Jun 06, 2008 10:10 pm 
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Maybe I'm just a second coming of Nostradamus, but I predicted you would get snarky there with the "last word" after I wished to put an end to the hectic arguing. But you did skip my first response/question.


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 Post subject: Re: LaRoche Sucks
PostPosted: Fri Jun 06, 2008 10:15 pm 
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TheShark wrote:
Maybe I'm just a second coming of Nostradamus, but I predicted you would get snarky there with the "last word" after I wished to put an end to the hectic arguing. But you did skip my first response/question.

I wasn't trying to be snarky and I didn't expect my post to be the last word.

Sorry I missed your first point there. I'm saying that the best way to predict future production is by using a player's established level of production, not what he's done for the last 10 days, and not what he's done over the last 60 games either.

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 Post subject: Re: LaRoche Sucks
PostPosted: Fri Jun 06, 2008 10:26 pm 
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sisyphus wrote:
TheShark wrote:
Maybe I'm just a second coming of Nostradamus, but I predicted you would get snarky there with the "last word" after I wished to put an end to the hectic arguing. But you did skip my first response/question.

I wasn't trying to be snarky and I didn't expect my post to be the last word.

Sorry I missed your first point there. I'm saying that the best way to predict future production is by using a player's established level of production, not what he's done for the last 10 days, and not what he's done over the last 60 games either.


And if he continues to hit like he has all season when the season concludes? By your logic do you excuse this year for the previous ones when/if he is struggling next year? Sure, you can say that's a premature and total hypothesis of an opinion. But, even though I agree with projecting how a player will do on what he's accomplished, it's the same as going ahead and saying he's going to break out and finish the year in a great fashion.


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 Post subject: Re: LaRoche Sucks
PostPosted: Fri Jun 06, 2008 10:31 pm 
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So instead of having the same damn argument in 15 different threads, why doesn't everyone man up and post their predictions of what Laroche is likely to do from here on out. I'd lke to see how many people who say he has played his way out of the lineup think that he will continue to hit this poorly. And, if you don't think he will continue to hit this poorly, why you wouldn't want his improved bat in the lineup.


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 Post subject: Re: LaRoche Sucks
PostPosted: Fri Jun 06, 2008 10:43 pm 
BBF wrote:
So instead of having the same damn argument in 15 different threads, why doesn't everyone man up and post their predictions of what Laroche is likely to do from here on out. I'd lke to see how many people who say he has played his way out of the lineup think that he will continue to hit this poorly. And, if you don't think he will continue to hit this poorly, why you wouldn't want his improved bat in the lineup.


There's a difference between what I think will happen and whether I think he SHOULD play his way out of the lineup.

He may very well improve his bat. But until then, I don't think he deserves to start every day.

How can he improve his bat if he's not in there, you may ask? I believe those things work themselves out naturally.

Over the course of a 162-game schedule, he'll get his at bats. He could backup, get spot starts, pinch-hit, start against favorable pitchers, etc. In performing THOSE duties, if he hits, you give him more and more at-bats, etc. If he continues to not hit, well then he's on the bench most of the time. Where's the harm there?


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 Post subject: Re: LaRoche Sucks
PostPosted: Sat Jun 07, 2008 8:06 am 
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All this nonsense about what LaRoche should do because of his prior stats is ridiculous. I am watching the games, his swing is too long, he looks as comfortable as a kid in a dentist chair at the plate, and he has lost confidence. All spells trouble for the rest of the season. He HAS played his way out of the lineup, and I am one of the guys that suggested a month ago for him to play through it.


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 Post subject: Re: LaRoche Sucks
PostPosted: Sat Jun 07, 2008 10:34 am 
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Statistically, LaRoche is one of worst first basemen on offense in MLB.

http://www.sportsline.com/mlb/stats/pla ... _1:col_2=6

I see NO signs of him getting any better. I hope he does but I ain't holdin my breath.

He needs to be batting 8th in the lineup or JR needs to Bench him. The guy is an automatic out. AND YES......Sanchez sucks too. But I'll still put my money on Freddy getting a hit at any particular time in a game versus Mr. LaRoche.

Let's see......I started this thread by saying LaRoche sucks.

hmm.....I think I'll say it again..........LaRoche sucks. There, I feel better all over again. :mrgreen:

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Last edited by bassoondirector on Sat Jun 07, 2008 11:15 am, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: LaRoche Sucks
PostPosted: Sat Jun 07, 2008 10:49 am 
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sisyphus wrote:
I wasn't trying to be snarky . . . . .


:lol: :roll: :lol: :roll: :lol: :roll: :lol: :roll: :lol: :roll: :lol: :roll: :lol: :roll: :lol: :roll: :lol: :roll: :lol: :roll: :lol:

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 Post subject: Re: LaRoche Sucks
PostPosted: Sat Jun 07, 2008 11:21 am 
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Ahhhhhhh... its always nice to see we can still have a Craig Wilson thread without the Craiger around....

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: LaRoche Sucks
PostPosted: Sat Jun 07, 2008 2:21 pm 
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BBF wrote:
So instead of having the same damn argument in 15 different threads, why doesn't everyone man up and post their predictions of what Laroche is likely to do from here on out. I'd lke to see how many people who say he has played his way out of the lineup think that he will continue to hit this poorly. And, if you don't think he will continue to hit this poorly, why you wouldn't want his improved bat in the lineup.



My prediction is LaRoche will finish hitting .645 the rest of the season and will put up 55 long balls and play in the World Series...once he's traded to Little League

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 Post subject: Re: LaRoche Sucks
PostPosted: Sat Jun 07, 2008 9:14 pm 
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BBF wrote:
So instead of having the same damn argument in 15 different threads, why doesn't everyone man up and post their predictions of what Laroche is likely to do from here on out. I'd lke to see how many people who say he has played his way out of the lineup think that he will continue to hit this poorly. And, if you don't think he will continue to hit this poorly, why you wouldn't want his improved bat in the lineup.


I predict that Laroche will continue to suck the rest of the season. :)

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 Post subject: Re: LaRoche Sucks
PostPosted: Sun Jun 08, 2008 12:36 am 
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Sisyphus - king of the "don't put words in my mouth society" - claims that somebody - unnamed by the aptly-monikered "Sisy" - insists that Laroche be benched, but is a supporter of Sanchez' offensive production this year. Specifically, Sisy says, "I'm not calling for Sanchez to be benched. Do you notice who the people are that argue the most vigorously in support of Sanchez? The very same people who are burying LaRoche. Don't you notice anything wrong with that picture?"

Who, Sisy, are you referring to?

If you claim it is me, then you are shown to be completely misstating the facts. Somebody - BBF? PF13? Cannot recall who - previously pointed out that I critcized Sanchez' dreadful penchant for swinging at the slider in the dirt, in the same thread where you accused me of ignoring Sanchez' hitting problems.

So, who is it that is one of Sanchez' biggest supporters while also being critical of Laroche??


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 Post subject: Re: LaRoche Sucks
PostPosted: Sun Jun 08, 2008 12:11 pm 
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TheShark wrote:
sisyphus wrote:
TheShark wrote:
Maybe I'm just a second coming of Nostradamus, but I predicted you would get snarky there with the "last word" after I wished to put an end to the hectic arguing. But you did skip my first response/question.

I wasn't trying to be snarky and I didn't expect my post to be the last word.

Sorry I missed your first point there. I'm saying that the best way to predict future production is by using a player's established level of production, not what he's done for the last 10 days, and not what he's done over the last 60 games either.


And if he continues to hit like he has all season when the season concludes? By your logic do you excuse this year for the previous ones when/if he is struggling next year?

Heck no. You incorporate what he's done into his career numbers and see his new established level of production. You should also give extra weight to his most recent season as well, and take his age into account. A full season's worth of numbers have statistical significance. A couple of weeks worth have little.

Quote:
Sure, you can say that's a premature and total hypothesis of an opinion. But, even though I agree with projecting how a player will do on what he's accomplished, it's the same as going ahead and saying he's going to break out and finish the year in a great fashion.

When you are projecting performance you are not talking about absolutes. You are talking about probabilities. It is probable that any player's performance during a given season will be somewhere around his historical mean. If it was CERTAIN, then there would be little point in playing out the schedule. Right now LaRoche's production is very far from his established level, so it is probable that his performance for the rest of the season will be much, much better. PROBABLE, not certain.

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 Post subject: Re: LaRoche Sucks
PostPosted: Sun Jun 08, 2008 12:13 pm 
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Elmer wrote:
BBF wrote:
So instead of having the same damn argument in 15 different threads, why doesn't everyone man up and post their predictions of what Laroche is likely to do from here on out. I'd lke to see how many people who say he has played his way out of the lineup think that he will continue to hit this poorly. And, if you don't think he will continue to hit this poorly, why you wouldn't want his improved bat in the lineup.


There's a difference between what I think will happen and whether I think he SHOULD play his way out of the lineup.

He may very well improve his bat. But until then, I don't think he deserves to start every day.

How can he improve his bat if he's not in there, you may ask? I believe those things work themselves out naturally.

You have evidence of this?

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 Post subject: Re: LaRoche Sucks
PostPosted: Sun Jun 08, 2008 12:16 pm 
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bassoondirector wrote:
Statistically, LaRoche is one of worst first basemen on offense in MLB.

http://www.sportsline.com/mlb/stats/pla ... _1:col_2=6

I see NO signs of him getting any better. I hope he does but I ain't holdin my breath.

He needs to be batting 8th in the lineup or JR needs to Bench him. The guy is an automatic out. AND YES......Sanchez sucks too. But I'll still put my money on Freddy getting a hit at any particular time in a game versus Mr. LaRoche.

Why, given the fact that Sanchez is hitting considerably worse than LaRoche?

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 Post subject: Re: LaRoche Sucks
PostPosted: Sun Jun 08, 2008 12:17 pm 
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No. 9 wrote:
sisyphus wrote:
I wasn't trying to be snarky . . . . .


:lol: :roll: :lol: :roll: :lol: :roll: :lol: :roll: :lol: :roll: :lol: :roll: :lol: :roll: :lol: :roll: :lol: :roll: :lol: :roll: :lol:

I don't know, maybe I'm just naturally snarky. I don't try to do it, though. :lol:

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