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 Post subject: Game rained out ... rotation adjustment
PostPosted: Mon Apr 28, 2008 7:15 pm 
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http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/08119/877317-100.stm

Why not just skip Dumatrait's start and bump everyone else back? I don't get those kind of things ... this is a 5th/6th starter. Why not get your best guys out there every fifth day?


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 Post subject: Re: Game rained out ... rotation adjustment
PostPosted: Mon Apr 28, 2008 8:26 pm 
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Because the Pirates have an interest in seeing what they have in Dumatrait. Plus it gives a nice day of rest to the other starters.

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 Post subject: Re: Game rained out ... rotation adjustment
PostPosted: Tue Apr 29, 2008 1:04 am 
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Mayor Mystery wrote:
http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/08119/877317-100.stm

Why not just skip Dumatrait's start and bump everyone else back? I don't get those kind of things ... this is a 5th/6th starter. Why not get your best guys out there every fifth day?


We really don't have anyone besides Dumatrait at this point though. We'll have to use him eventually, so why not get it over with and start now? If you push back Dumatrait, maybe he gets cold from not pitching for a few weeks and can't throw strikes. Maybe you hurt his confidence even. Besides, right now he may be better than Gorzo or Duke (esp. Duke). Who's to say Dumatrait isn't part of the "best guys" group?


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 Post subject: Re: Game rained out ... rotation adjustment
PostPosted: Tue Apr 29, 2008 1:29 am 
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This rainout was great for the bullpen. With Maholm's complete game and this day off it should finally be at full strength.

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 Post subject: Re: Game rained out ... rotation adjustment
PostPosted: Tue Apr 29, 2008 4:38 am 
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The forecast for the New York area calls for rain, which means we may have another postponement.

I guess another day off won't do the bullpen any harm, but (how long) do we keep pushing the starters back?

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 Post subject: Re: Game rained out ... rotation adjustment
PostPosted: Tue Apr 29, 2008 11:13 am 
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Willton wrote:
Because the Pirates have an interest in seeing what they have in Dumatrait. Plus it gives a nice day of rest to the other starters.


Shouldn't they have an interest in winning? They'll get plenty of time to "see what they have in Dumatrait" if he's going to be their 5th starter.

Your "nice day of rest" for the others starters point is laughable. They each get four nice days of rest between each start.


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 Post subject: Re: Game rained out ... rotation adjustment
PostPosted: Tue Apr 29, 2008 11:18 am 
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psubar12 wrote:
Mayor Mystery wrote:
http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/08119/877317-100.stm

Why not just skip Dumatrait's start and bump everyone else back? I don't get those kind of things ... this is a 5th/6th starter. Why not get your best guys out there every fifth day?


We really don't have anyone besides Dumatrait at this point though. We'll have to use him eventually, so why not get it over with and start now? If you push back Dumatrait, maybe he gets cold from not pitching for a few weeks and can't throw strikes. Maybe you hurt his confidence even. Besides, right now he may be better than Gorzo or Duke (esp. Duke). Who's to say Dumatrait isn't part of the "best guys" group?


I understand what you are saying, psubar, but I think we've all been beaten down by the losing in this town that we forget the goal is to win ballgames.

If pitching the other 4 instead of Dumatrait this time through the rotation gives you a better chance of winning even one game -- a reasonable argument -- I think they should opt for that even if it means Dumatrait might get cold. Have him pitch a simulated came in the bullpen.

As for "hurting his confidence" ... first off, he's a professional. If his confidence gets hurt because his start gets skipped then I don't think he has the mental makeup to be a big league starter. But more than than, the dude just got promoted from the bullpen to the rotation. His confidence should be sky-high.

BTW, I'm glad you gave baseball reasons and didn't mention "nice days of rest"
... gosh I miss the ignore button.


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 Post subject: Re: Game rained out ... rotation adjustment
PostPosted: Tue Apr 29, 2008 12:05 pm 
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Mayor Mystery wrote:
http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/08119/877317-100.stm

Why not just skip Dumatrait's start and bump everyone else back? I don't get those kind of things ... this is a 5th/6th starter. Why not get your best guys out there every fifth day?


Because you'd prefer not to have your best guys' arms fall off before the end of the season. I especially support sticking to the rotation when I see the troubles Gorzelanny and Duke are having, not to mention the fact that I rarely see Snell hitting 92 on the gun this year.

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 Post subject: Re: Game rained out ... rotation adjustment
PostPosted: Tue Apr 29, 2008 12:07 pm 
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Mayor Mystery wrote:
psubar12 wrote:
Mayor Mystery wrote:
http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/08119/877317-100.stm

Why not just skip Dumatrait's start and bump everyone else back? I don't get those kind of things ... this is a 5th/6th starter. Why not get your best guys out there every fifth day?


We really don't have anyone besides Dumatrait at this point though. We'll have to use him eventually, so why not get it over with and start now? If you push back Dumatrait, maybe he gets cold from not pitching for a few weeks and can't throw strikes. Maybe you hurt his confidence even. Besides, right now he may be better than Gorzo or Duke (esp. Duke). Who's to say Dumatrait isn't part of the "best guys" group?


I understand what you are saying, psubar, but I think we've all been beaten down by the losing in this town that we forget the goal is to win ballgames.

If pitching the other 4 instead of Dumatrait this time through the rotation gives you a better chance of winning even one game -- a reasonable argument -- I think they should opt for that even if it means Dumatrait might get cold. Have him pitch a simulated came in the bullpen.

As for "hurting his confidence" ... first off, he's a professional. If his confidence gets hurt because his start gets skipped then I don't think he has the mental makeup to be a big league starter. But more than than, the dude just got promoted from the bullpen to the rotation. His confidence should be sky-high.

BTW, I'm glad you gave baseball reasons and didn't mention "nice days of rest"
... gosh I miss the ignore button.


Perhaps the Pirates, unlike you, understand that winning is the point, not winning this year. Winning next year is just as important, and so on down through the decades. You seem to think that tomorrow's game is always the only one.

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 Post subject: Re: Game rained out ... rotation adjustment
PostPosted: Tue Apr 29, 2008 12:11 pm 
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Mayor Mystery wrote:
http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/08119/877317-100.stm

Why not just skip Dumatrait's start and bump everyone else back? I don't get those kind of things ... this is a 5th/6th starter. Why not get your best guys out there every fifth day?


First of all, we don't have an extra off day between this series and the next, so Snell would not be getting any more rest than a usual turn through the rotation and would pitch on 3 days rest (as would Gorzo). We also haven't had an off day since April 17th. I think it is prudent to keep your rotation intact, and pitch Dumatrait. The rest will be helpful for later in the season.

Or, would you advocate skipping your 5th starter every time through the rotation that there is an off day?

If we had multiple days off where Snell would have 5 or more days off, then sure, skip your 5th starter. But that is just not the case here, and advocating skipping Dumatrait is somewhat ludicrous.


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 Post subject: Re: Game rained out ... rotation adjustment
PostPosted: Tue Apr 29, 2008 12:33 pm 
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If the Pirates had a 5th starter who has shown he can win, then I'd be more OK with making sure he gets his turn. But they don't, so I'd rather the decent pitchers get their turns and use the 5th guy when you need him. That's not an unprecedented approach.

Years ago teams used 4 man rotations. I'm not saying that's the way to go, but guys arms didn't "fall of then" so I don't think they'll fall off with a 5 man rotation. If rainouts can take the place of 5th starters from time to time, I'm all about that if it increases the team's chances of winning.


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 Post subject: Re: Game rained out ... rotation adjustment
PostPosted: Tue Apr 29, 2008 2:01 pm 
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Mayor Mystery wrote:
If the Pirates had a 5th starter who has shown he can win, then I'd be more OK with making sure he gets his turn. But they don't, so I'd rather the decent pitchers get their turns and use the 5th guy when you need him. That's not an unprecedented approach.

The Pirates hardly have a 3rd or 4th starter who has shown he can win. What makes our 5th starter so much different from Duke and Gorzo right now?

Mayor Mystery wrote:
Years ago teams used 4 man rotations. I'm not saying that's the way to go, but guys arms didn't "fall of then" so I don't think they'll fall off with a 5 man rotation. If rainouts can take the place of 5th starters from time to time, I'm all about that if it increases the team's chances of winning.

Years ago pitchers threw with less effort and from a higher mound than now. There's a giant difference between the pitching conditions during the dead-ball era and now. It's not an apt comparison.

I concur with the above-stated reasons for not skipping Dumatrait. In theory, skipping the 5th starter probably would increase the team's chances of winning. But with the 2008 Pirates, I don't think that's the case.

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 Post subject: Re: Game rained out ... rotation adjustment
PostPosted: Tue Apr 29, 2008 2:20 pm 
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The higher mound was not easier to throw off, in terms of arm health. It was harder to hit from because of the downward plane of the ball, but it ruined arms.

That is why all current medical studies regarding pitching are recommending lowering the mound more, and at a minimum, having pitchers "between sessions" be done on flat ground (like Andrews is doing right now).

I would posit that the reason for the success of 4 man rotations before was simply the end product of a more rigorous training regime caused by more players, playing at an earlier age and longer, on fewer teams that allowed only the very strongest and most durable to arrive at the MLB.

The 4-man rotation everyone wants was merely the end result of a devastating natural selection process.

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: Game rained out ... rotation adjustment
PostPosted: Tue Apr 29, 2008 6:20 pm 
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Mayor Mystery wrote:
If the Pirates had a 5th starter who has shown he can win, then I'd be more OK with making sure he gets his turn. But they don't, so I'd rather the decent pitchers get their turns and use the 5th guy when you need him. That's not an unprecedented approach.

Years ago teams used 4 man rotations. I'm not saying that's the way to go, but guys arms didn't "fall of then" so I don't think they'll fall off with a 5 man rotation. If rainouts can take the place of 5th starters from time to time, I'm all about that if it increases the team's chances of winning.


Years ago guys arms fell off all the time. You could fill PNC park with pitcher's whose arms fell off many times over. The survivors who went on to long careers are by far the exception, not the rule, and most of them battled arm troubles at some time or another.

I'm not opposed to a four man rotation in principle. The problem is that the Pirates currently have a rotation full of fairly young pitchers with suspect health or poor performance except for Snell, and Snell's velocity is down this year. On top of that, they have all come up in a system that prepared them for a five man rotation, and, more importantly, prepared for this season with the same assumption. 32 or 33 starts are enough for any young pitcher.

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 Post subject: Re: Game rained out ... rotation adjustment
PostPosted: Tue Apr 29, 2008 6:31 pm 
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Mayor Mystery wrote:
Years ago teams used 4 man rotations. I'm not saying that's the way to go, but guys arms didn't "fall of then" so I don't think they'll fall off with a 5 man rotation. If rainouts can take the place of 5th starters from time to time, I'm all about that if it increases the team's chances of winning.


Something tells me you are a big fan of Dusty Baker. Trust me, we all want to win every game we play. But its what you do over the long haul that determines how successful you are. Sure, skipping Dumatrait is a good move to put you in a position to win THAT game, but when Snell hits the DL in late August from overuse (hypothetically speaking) and we have both Dumatrait AND Bullington in the rotation, it ends up hurting more than it helped.


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 Post subject: Re: Game rained out ... rotation adjustment
PostPosted: Tue Apr 29, 2008 7:53 pm 
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sisyphus wrote:
Mayor Mystery wrote:
http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/08119/877317-100.stm

Why not just skip Dumatrait's start and bump everyone else back? I don't get those kind of things ... this is a 5th/6th starter. Why not get your best guys out there every fifth day?


Because you'd prefer not to have your best guys' arms fall off before the end of the season. I especially support sticking to the rotation when I see the troubles Gorzelanny and Duke are having, not to mention the fact that I rarely see Snell hitting 92 on the gun this year.


I heard, I believe it was on Ellis Cannon's show, Huntington saying theres been problems with the PNC Radar Gun and was measuring upto 4 MPH less than the actual reading...

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 Post subject: Re: Game rained out ... rotation adjustment
PostPosted: Tue Apr 29, 2008 8:01 pm 
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Let Phil try...this way we're not waiting 10 days to see if he is a stop-gap for a while or if Neal needs to get on the phone and find someone...this way if a deal needs to be made it can be done quick

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 Post subject: Re: Game rained out ... rotation adjustment
PostPosted: Tue Apr 29, 2008 11:55 pm 
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nad69dan wrote:
sisyphus wrote:
Mayor Mystery wrote:
http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/08119/877317-100.stm

Why not just skip Dumatrait's start and bump everyone else back? I don't get those kind of things ... this is a 5th/6th starter. Why not get your best guys out there every fifth day?


Because you'd prefer not to have your best guys' arms fall off before the end of the season. I especially support sticking to the rotation when I see the troubles Gorzelanny and Duke are having, not to mention the fact that I rarely see Snell hitting 92 on the gun this year.


I heard, I believe it was on Ellis Cannon's show, Huntington saying theres been problems with the PNC Radar Gun and was measuring upto 4 MPH less than the actual reading...


That doesn't explain his lack of velocity in Chicago. I know he didn't pitch well tonight, but did anybody hear any radar numbers?

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 Post subject: Re: Game rained out ... rotation adjustment
PostPosted: Tue Apr 29, 2008 11:56 pm 
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nad69dan wrote:
Let Phil try...this way we're not waiting 10 days to see if he is a stop-gap for a while or if Neal needs to get on the phone and find someone...this way if a deal needs to be made it can be done quick


You think that one start will tell you that?

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 Post subject: Re: Game rained out ... rotation adjustment
PostPosted: Wed Apr 30, 2008 6:38 pm 
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Combined with some of his relief work and this one start is a step in the process...If he comes out in this 1st start and totally bombs, you know its time to find a replacement very very soon...if he pitches ok or higher, you got some more time to worry about that spot...

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