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 Post subject: Jason Bay this year
PostPosted: Wed May 14, 2008 1:33 am 
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I do not recall seeing a post that was predicated on Jason Bay's hitting this year.

I have witnessed just one game in person, but have seen the majority of games via television. Jason Bay is having a very good year so far. He is driving the ball to right-center with authority and is hitting for extra bases. He is drawing walks, running the bases, stealing bases and generally producing on offense much better than the nightmare that was 2007.

He looks like a 30 HR, 20 stolen base, .400 OBP, .550 slugging hitter. Those guys are rare.


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 Post subject: Re: Jason Bay this year
PostPosted: Wed May 14, 2008 1:59 am 
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I have been very happy overall with Jason Bay so far this year except for the occasional staring at strike threes.

This Pirate team needs a productive Jason Bay to be successful. I hope he keeps it going :!:

Nice to see LaRoche begin to wake up too. Next year, I would automatically put LaRoche in the 6th or 7th spot until at least the beginning or middle of May.

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 Post subject: Re: Jason Bay this year
PostPosted: Wed May 14, 2008 10:04 am 
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In all my years of watching the Buccos I cannot think of two players that have frustrated me more than Bay and LaRoche. I do admit, Bay is having a fairly good season.

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 Post subject: Re: Jason Bay this year
PostPosted: Wed May 14, 2008 3:06 pm 
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Part of that has to do with expectations. Bay and Laroche seem to be the two guys who can power the Pirates' offense. However, neither is in the category of players on other teams who can take over games with their hitting for weeks at a time (Pujols, Holliday, A-Rod, Manny, etc.)

Because we see great players on other teams dominate and push their teams to wins, we look for that type of production from Pirate players. The two most likely candidates - Bay and Laroche - simply are not good enough.

The issue that I have is that the Pirates had a chance to get two hitters who could develop into game-changing guys: BJ Upton and Matt Wieters. They passed on both for mediocre pitching.


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 Post subject: Re: Jason Bay this year
PostPosted: Wed May 14, 2008 3:08 pm 
Bucfan wrote:
Part of that has to do with expectations. Bay and Laroche seem to be the two guys who can power the Pirates' offense. However, neither is in the category of players on other teams who can take over games with their hitting for weeks at a time (Pujols, Holliday, A-Rod, Manny, etc.)

Because we see great players on other teams dominate and push their teams to wins, we look for that type of production from Pirate players. The two most likely candidates - Bay and Laroche - simply are not good enough.

The issue that I have is that the Pirates had a chance to get two hitters who could develop into game-changing guys: BJ Upton and Matt Wieters. They passed on both for mediocre pitching.


You're being too kind when you say the Pirates passed on both for "mediocre" pitching. I think what they've gotten is below mediocre.


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 Post subject: Re: Jason Bay this year
PostPosted: Wed May 14, 2008 3:10 pm 
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Bucfan wrote:
The issue that I have is that the Pirates had a chance to get two hitters who could develop into game-changing guys: BJ Upton and Matt Wieters. They passed on both for mediocre pitching.


While we obviously can't judge Moskos yet, the word "mediocre" is probably the nicest thing ever said about Bullington since his days at Ball State.


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 Post subject: Re: Jason Bay this year
PostPosted: Wed May 14, 2008 3:18 pm 
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Elmer wrote:
You're being too kind when you say the Pirates passed on both for "mediocre" pitching. I think what they've gotten is below mediocre.


BBF wrote:
While we obviously can't judge Moskos yet, the word "mediocre" is probably the nicest thing ever said about Bullington since his days at Ball State.


I'm trying to be nice. It's the new Bucfan.

And relative to Moskos - he is not doing much in A-ball. He is not fanning hitters. He is giving up as many hits as innings pitched, while facing a lot of very young players (18-20).

Not a good sign . . .


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 Post subject: Re: Jason Bay this year
PostPosted: Wed May 14, 2008 3:42 pm 
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Bucfan wrote:
Elmer wrote:
You're being too kind when you say the Pirates passed on both for "mediocre" pitching. I think what they've gotten is below mediocre.


BBF wrote:
While we obviously can't judge Moskos yet, the word "mediocre" is probably the nicest thing ever said about Bullington since his days at Ball State.


I'm trying to be nice. It's the new Bucfan.

And relative to Moskos - he is not doing much in A-ball. He is not fanning hitters. He is giving up as many hits as innings pitched, while facing a lot of very young players (18-20).

Not a good sign . . .

He has given up 33 hits and only 8 walks in 36-1/3 innings. He's striking out more than twice as many guys as he walks. He's only given up 2 home runs. His ERA is an okay 3.72 and it's 1.69 in May, so he's showing improvement. There are more positives about Moskos so far than there are negatives. Most importantly, he's only pitched seven games. Elmer will tell you that 6 years of minor league statistics are meaningless.

I did expect better strikeout numbers, though. Maybe they'll improve as the season goes on.

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 Post subject: Re: Jason Bay this year
PostPosted: Wed May 14, 2008 4:32 pm 
sisyphus wrote:
He has given up 33 hits and only 8 walks in 36-1/3 innings. He's striking out more than twice as many guys as he walks. He's only given up 2 home runs. His ERA is an okay 3.72 and it's 1.69 in May, so he's showing improvement. There are more positives about Moskos so far than there are negatives. Most importantly, he's only pitched seven games. Elmer will tell you that 6 years of minor league statistics are meaningless.


I don't believe minor league stats are "meaningless." They have significant meaning. I just don't believe they are all-revealing. They can't predict for certain how a guy will do in the majors.

Answer posts how you see fit, but don't put words in my mouth.


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 Post subject: Re: Jason Bay this year
PostPosted: Wed May 14, 2008 5:15 pm 
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Elmer wrote:
sisyphus wrote:
He has given up 33 hits and only 8 walks in 36-1/3 innings. He's striking out more than twice as many guys as he walks. He's only given up 2 home runs. His ERA is an okay 3.72 and it's 1.69 in May, so he's showing improvement. There are more positives about Moskos so far than there are negatives. Most importantly, he's only pitched seven games. Elmer will tell you that 6 years of minor league statistics are meaningless.


I don't believe minor league stats are "meaningless." They have significant meaning. I just don't believe they are all-revealing. They can't predict for certain how a guy will do in the majors.

Answer posts how you see fit, but don't put words in my mouth.


My mistake, Elmer. I confused you with another poster.

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 Post subject: Re: Jason Bay this year
PostPosted: Wed May 14, 2008 5:20 pm 
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Elmer:

Darn it, you quoted you-know-who.

So, you-know-who (the ignore feature is great), Moskos is playing against a lot of guys younger than he is, and has fanned 28 in 40.2 innings (including 8 in his last outing, when he also gave up 5 runs in less than 5 innings).

That K rate is not very good for this level of competition. He will fan less as he advances, and will wind up giving up more hits than Zach Duke.

Who, by the way, at age 21 struck out 106 in 97 innings at Lynchburg.


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 Post subject: Re: Jason Bay this year
PostPosted: Wed May 14, 2008 5:39 pm 
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Bucfan wrote:
Elmer:

Darn it, you quoted you-know-who.

So, you-know-who (the ignore feature is great), Moskos is playing against a lot of guys younger than he is, and has fanned 28 in 40.2 innings (including 8 in his last outing, when he also gave up 5 runs in less than 5 innings).

That K rate is not very good for this level of competition. He will fan less as he advances, and will wind up giving up more hits than Zach Duke.

Who, by the way, at age 21 struck out 106 in 97 innings at Lynchburg.

Too bad Elmer didn't quote my entire post, because I said that I did expect better strikeout numbers. You'd probably miss it anyway, just the way you managed to miss it when I said that he has more positives than negatives right now. You see, that ACKNOWLEDGES that he isn't off to a great start.

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 Post subject: Re: Jason Bay this year
PostPosted: Thu May 15, 2008 9:31 am 
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Bucfan wrote:
Elmer wrote:
You're being too kind when you say the Pirates passed on both for "mediocre" pitching. I think what they've gotten is below mediocre.


BBF wrote:
While we obviously can't judge Moskos yet, the word "mediocre" is probably the nicest thing ever said about Bullington since his days at Ball State.


I'm trying to be nice. It's the new Bucfan.

And relative to Moskos - he is not doing much in A-ball. He is not fanning hitters. He is giving up as many hits as innings pitched, while facing a lot of very young players (18-20).

Not a good sign . . .


Well, in 4.1 innings last night, Moskos fanned 8. Of course, he also gave up 6 runs (5 earned). Weird line.


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 Post subject: Re: Jason Bay this year
PostPosted: Thu May 15, 2008 10:30 am 
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BBF wrote:
Well, in 4.1 innings last night, Moskos fanned 8. Of course, he also gave up 6 runs (5 earned). Weird line.


Weird enough to warrant further investigation.

Winston-Salem Bottom 1st
Paulo Orlando flies out to center fielder Alex Presley.
John ShelbyIII strikes out swinging.
Javier Colina strikes out swinging.

Winston-Salem Bottom 2nd
Brandon Allen homers (6) on a fly ball to right center field.
Lee Cruz strikes out swinging.
C. J. Retherford strikes out swinging.
Anderson Gomes grounds out, shortstop Brian Friday to first baseman Anthony Mansolino

Winston-Salem Bottom 3rd
Francisco Hernandez strikes out swinging.
C. J. Lang strikes out swinging.
Paulo Orlando reaches on throwing error by third baseman Jim Negrych. Paulo Orlando to 2nd.
John ShelbyIII flies out to right fielder Eddie Prasch.

Winston-Salem Bottom 4th
Javier Colina singles on a ground ball to second baseman Angel R. Gonzalez.
Brandon Allen singles on a line drive to left fielder Jared Keel. Javier Colina to 2nd.
Lee Cruz doubles (10) on a line drive to center fielder Alex Presley. Javier Colina scores. Brandon Allen to 3rd.
C. J. Retherford out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Alex Presley. Brandon Allen scores. Lee Cruz to 3rd.
Anderson Gomes grounds out, shortstop Brian Friday to first baseman Anthony Mansolino. Lee Cruz scores.
Francisco Hernandez singles on a ground ball to left fielder Jared Keel.
C. J. Lang strikes out swinging.

Winston-Salem Bottom 5th
Paulo Orlando strikes out swinging.
John ShelbyIII reaches on fielding error by first baseman Anthony Mansolino. John ShelbyIII to 2nd.
With Javier Colina batting, John ShelbyIII steals (11) 3rd base.
Javier Colina doubles (16) on a line drive to left fielder Jared Keel. John ShelbyIII scores.
Pitcher Change: Kyle Pearson replaces Daniel Moskos.


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 Post subject: Re: Jason Bay this year
PostPosted: Thu May 15, 2008 10:52 am 
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Argentum wrote:
BBF wrote:
Well, in 4.1 innings last night, Moskos fanned 8. Of course, he also gave up 6 runs (5 earned). Weird line.


Weird enough to warrant further investigation.

Winston-Salem Bottom 1st
Paulo Orlando flies out to center fielder Alex Presley.
John ShelbyIII strikes out swinging.
Javier Colina strikes out swinging.

Winston-Salem Bottom 2nd
Brandon Allen homers (6) on a fly ball to right center field.
Lee Cruz strikes out swinging.
C. J. Retherford strikes out swinging.
Anderson Gomes grounds out, shortstop Brian Friday to first baseman Anthony Mansolino.


Winston-Salem Bottom 3rd
Francisco Hernandez strikes out swinging.
C. J. Lang strikes out swinging.
Paulo Orlando reaches on throwing error by third baseman Jim Negrych. Paulo Orlando to 2nd.
John ShelbyIII flies out to right fielder Eddie Prasch.

Winston-Salem Bottom 4th
Javier Colina singles on a ground ball to second baseman Angel R. Gonzalez.
Brandon Allen singles on a line drive to left fielder Jared Keel. Javier Colina to 2nd.
Lee Cruz doubles (10) on a line drive to center fielder Alex Presley. Javier Colina scores. Brandon Allen to 3rd.
C. J. Retherford out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Alex Presley. Brandon Allen scores. Lee Cruz to 3rd.
Anderson Gomes grounds out, shortstop Brian Friday to first baseman Anthony Mansolino. Lee Cruz scores.
Francisco Hernandez singles on a ground ball to left fielder Jared Keel.
C. J. Lang strikes out swinging.

Winston-Salem Bottom 5th
Paulo Orlando strikes out swinging.
John ShelbyIII reaches on fielding error by first baseman Anthony Mansolino. John ShelbyIII to 2nd.
With Javier Colina batting, John ShelbyIII steals (11) 3rd base.
Javier Colina doubles (16) on a line drive to left fielder Jared Keel. John ShelbyIII scores.
Pitcher Change: Kyle Pearson replaces Daniel Moskos.



Weird indeed. I'd really like to see this guy pitch in person.


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 Post subject: Re: Jason Bay this year
PostPosted: Thu May 15, 2008 11:43 am 
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Argentum wrote:
BBF wrote:
Well, in 4.1 innings last night, Moskos fanned 8. Of course, he also gave up 6 runs (5 earned). Weird line.


Weird enough to warrant further investigation.


Vielen dank, Argentum.

It looks like he was pretty much in control early, not so much later. He wasn't helped by some errors that probably ran his pitch count up. I wonder if it was a fatigue issue or an issue of him not being able to fool hitters the second time through.

I applaud the organization for trying him as a starter until he proves that he isn't, but I still think that in the end, he ends up as a reliever.


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 Post subject: Re: Jason Bay this year
PostPosted: Thu May 15, 2008 12:05 pm 
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Prior to that start, Moskos had not fanned more than 4 in any start.

He is the fourth player taken in the 2007 draft. He is pitching in high-A. Thus far, including the last start (with 8 K's in 4.1 innings), he is striking out 6.25 batters per nine innings. He is tied for 23rd in the league in strikeouts.

It would be great if Moskos develops into a top-flight starter. It would be consistent with where he was drafted if Moskos becomes the best starter on the Pirates. But the unfortunate truth of the matter is that his peformance so far gives no reason to believe that he will become a dominant starting pitcher. Or really, even a good starting pitcher.

More likely, he will become a situtational lefty - or the kind of pitcher who can be found in the 15th round.


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 Post subject: Re: Jason Bay this year
PostPosted: Thu May 15, 2008 12:14 pm 
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Funny how a thread intended to be about Bay turns into one about Moskos. Anway, one thing:
Bucfan wrote:
More likely, he will become a situtational lefty - or the kind of pitcher who can be found in the 15th round.

I wouldn't say that. I'd say he has a pretty good chance at becoming a lights-out lefty reliever, one that would be used as a setup guy or even closer. Just because he's a lefty does not mean he'll be relegated to situational status if he returns to relieving.

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 Post subject: Re: Jason Bay this year
PostPosted: Thu May 15, 2008 12:17 pm 
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Willton wrote:
Funny how a thread intended to be about Bay turns into one about Moskos. Anway, one thing:
Bucfan wrote:
More likely, he will become a situtational lefty - or the kind of pitcher who can be found in the 15th round.

I wouldn't say that. I'd say he has a pretty good chance at becoming a lights-out lefty reliever, one that would be used as a setup guy or even closer. Just because he's a lefty does not mean he'll be relegated to situational status if he returns to relieving.


That's still not a pick you make in the first round though...

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 Post subject: Re: Jason Bay this year
PostPosted: Thu May 15, 2008 12:31 pm 
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Willton wrote:
I wouldn't say that. I'd say he has a pretty good chance at becoming a lights-out lefty reliever, one that would be used as a setup guy or even closer. Just because he's a lefty does not mean he'll be relegated to situational status if he returns to relieving.


I say that he becomes a situational lefty based on his performance so far. He strikes out well below a hitter an inning in A ball. Those pitchers do not tend to turn into dominant pitchers of any type, starter or reliever.


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