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 Post subject: Interesting numbers
PostPosted: Tue May 13, 2008 11:15 am 
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From CBSSports:

http://www.sportsline.com/mlb/fantasy/story/10823557

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 Post subject: Re: Interesting numbers
PostPosted: Tue May 13, 2008 11:41 am 
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I agree that out of the three starting OFs, Nady is the one most likely to crash, hard. His 398 BABIP is indeed "ridiculous".


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 Post subject: Re: Interesting numbers
PostPosted: Tue May 13, 2008 12:08 pm 
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Well the situation calls for action. Why don't we bench Nady since he's really a bum anyway.
I don't think he'll lead the league all season but man what the heck's the matter with you Doubting Thomas. It's just possible that if he can stay healthy, Nady may lead the team or at least our outfield this year.

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 Post subject: Re: Interesting numbers
PostPosted: Tue May 13, 2008 12:42 pm 
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Substitute2 wrote:
Well the situation calls for action. Why don't we bench Nady since he's really a bum anyway.
I don't think he'll lead the league all season but man what the heck's the matter with you Doubting Thomas. It's just possible that if he can stay healthy, Nady may lead the team or at least our outfield this year.


"Doubting Thomas"? I can handle that as I've been called much worse. :)

Look, this is one of those instances in life where I'd love to be proven wrong. I have nothing against Nady, it's not personal, I just don't see him becoming something that he has never been. When the dust settles he'll end up where he always does, below average for his postition. I'm basing this on close to 1700 ABs.

Is he going to be a late bloomer like Andres Galarraga, I hope so, but wouldn't bet too much of my money on it.


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 Post subject: Re: Interesting numbers
PostPosted: Tue May 13, 2008 12:47 pm 
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The thing about BABIP is that it can be interpreted in 2 ways. First, a hitter could be extremely lucky (or unlucky) and all of his hits are just dropping in between players (being hit right at players) even though he is not making good contact.

Second, a player could simply be mashing the ball such that it is uncatchable. Hits off the wall, drives to the gap, etc. are not luck. If this is the case, I can see a talented hitter maintain a BABIP well above average.

Now, do I think Nady can keep a BABIP over .390? No, I honestly don't. But I think the number he currently has is more of a reflection of him driving the ball this year than it is getting lucky and having hits fall in. So, I predict he will settle back to what his average career numbers are (actually, probably a little above his career numbers), but I don't expect some "crash" that a BABIP of .390 would suggest.


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 Post subject: Re: Interesting numbers
PostPosted: Tue May 13, 2008 1:44 pm 
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BBF wrote:
The thing about BABIP is that it can be interpreted in 2 ways. First, a hitter could be extremely lucky (or unlucky) and all of his hits are just dropping in between players (being hit right at players) even though he is not making good contact.

Second, a player could simply be mashing the ball such that it is uncatchable. Hits off the wall, drives to the gap, etc. are not luck. If this is the case, I can see a talented hitter maintain a BABIP well above average.

Now, do I think Nady can keep a BABIP over .390? No, I honestly don't. But I think the number he currently has is more of a reflection of him driving the ball this year than it is getting lucky and having hits fall in. So, I predict he will settle back to what his average career numbers are (actually, probably a little above his career numbers), but I don't expect some "crash" that a BABIP of .390 would suggest.


I don't think anyone who has actually watched Nady this year would accuse him of getting lucky by dinking singles. He's been hitting with authority. He's currently 340/399/539. You wouldn't call "settling" back to his career 277/333/448 crashing?


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 Post subject: Re: Interesting numbers
PostPosted: Tue May 13, 2008 3:18 pm 
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BABIP SCHMABIP. The guy has simply matured and is a better hitter now. Not that he will continue at this pace all year, but he will beat his career averages. Even taken form this point forward, he should beat his career averages, because he is a better hitter.


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 Post subject: Re: Interesting numbers
PostPosted: Tue May 13, 2008 4:02 pm 
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Ralphie, I think you got it about right.

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 Post subject: Re: Interesting numbers
PostPosted: Tue May 13, 2008 4:20 pm 
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Nady is fanning less this year.

If he continues to fan less than 20% of his plate appearances, he will be an offensive force. He has hit better every year he has been in the majors, so his improvement this year is not a big surprise.

He looks to be a 25 HR, 100 RBI, .280/.340/.500 player.


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 Post subject: Re: Interesting numbers
PostPosted: Tue May 13, 2008 4:40 pm 
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Bucfan wrote:
Nady is fanning less this year.

If he continues to fan less than 20% of his plate appearances, he will be an offensive force. He has hit better every year he has been in the majors, so his improvement this year is not a big surprise.

He looks to be a 25 HR, 100 RBI, .280/.340/.500 player.


Yes, but I'd argue that striking out less does not equate to a better batting eye as his walks are not as commensurate. Therefore I have to assume that the PAs where he doesn't fan are resulting in hits, to the tune of a 398 BABIP. The odds are against him.

I'm curious to see how well he adjusts when the hits start resulting in outs. Will he press and become the Nady of old, or will his new found "maturity" see him through it?


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 Post subject: Re: Interesting numbers
PostPosted: Tue May 13, 2008 5:13 pm 
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Argentum wrote:
Yes, but I'd argue that striking out less does not equate to a better batting eye as his walks are not as commensurate.


He is walking this year once every 12.9 plate appearances (12 walks in 155 plate appearances, including HBP).

His career average before this year was once every 17.2 plate appearances (104 walks in 1790 plate appearances).

This is a pretty big increase in walk rate.

Will it remain? I don't know, but I have seen that Nady is more likely to take ball 4 this season than in years past.


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 Post subject: Re: Interesting numbers
PostPosted: Tue May 13, 2008 6:15 pm 
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Argentum wrote:

Look, this is one of those instances in life where I'd love to be proven wrong. I have nothing against Nady, it's not personal, I just don't see him becoming something that he has never been. When the dust settles he'll end up where he always does, below average for his postition. I'm basing this on close to 1700 ABs. ..


Here is the problem I have with this. You are trying to predict forward his production based on a career that is differant than now. One could also argue that his best two years, last and this so far, coincide with an actual chance to play regularily. And, this year he's playing healthy to last year.

Will he sustain those numbers. Most likely no. Will he "crash" back to career numbers? I don't think so. In addition to proving he can play every day, he is getting some protection this year from Bay and Doumit, and even LaRoche these days.

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: Interesting numbers
PostPosted: Tue May 13, 2008 6:46 pm 
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Some of what you say makes sense.
But... Bay is Protecting Nady? That's a stretch considering Bay bats ahead od Nady always and is not hitting as well. If anything, Nady is helping Bay get better pitches.
ZM ... I know you like Bay but is it just possible that someone has snuck up on you and placed Rose Colored Glasses on you while you were sleeping?

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 Post subject: Re: Interesting numbers
PostPosted: Tue May 13, 2008 11:07 pm 
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Substitute2 wrote:
Some of what you say makes sense.
But... Bay is Protecting Nady? That's a stretch considering Bay bats ahead od Nady always and is not hitting as well. If anything, Nady is helping Bay get better pitches.

That assertion is in stark contrast to the number of walks Bay has recorded. I have serious doubts that Bay would be walking as much as he does if he truly was seeing better pitches to hit as a result of Nady hitting behind him.

Substitute2 wrote:
ZM ... I know you like Bay but is it just possible that someone has snuck up on you and placed Rose Colored Glasses on you while you were sleeping?

ZM does see through black and gold glasses, but he's not wrong in asserting that Bay is an excellent hitter. I don't believe in the theory of hitter protection, but assuming it's true, I would think that ZM is correct in saying that protection is a 2-way street: a hitter can "protect" the hitter behind him in the order.

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 Post subject: Re: Interesting numbers
PostPosted: Wed May 14, 2008 9:27 am 
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ZelieMike wrote:
Argentum wrote:

Look, this is one of those instances in life where I'd love to be proven wrong. I have nothing against Nady, it's not personal, I just don't see him becoming something that he has never been. When the dust settles he'll end up where he always does, below average for his postition. I'm basing this on close to 1700 ABs. ..


Here is the problem I have with this. You are trying to predict forward his production based on a career that is differant than now. One could also argue that his best two years, last and this so far, coincide with an actual chance to play regularily. And, this year he's playing healthy to last year.

Will he sustain those numbers. Most likely no. Will he "crash" back to career numbers? I don't think so. In addition to proving he can play every day, he is getting some protection this year from Bay and Doumit, and even LaRoche these days.

ZM

I don't think that his OPS at the end of the season will match his career OPS. But I don't think that it's unreasonable to predict that his numbers from this point in the season on will be very close to his career OPS. It's possible that he's established new norms, but, at his age, it isn't the way to bet, especially given that astronomical BABIP.

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 Post subject: Re: Interesting numbers
PostPosted: Wed May 14, 2008 10:57 am 
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Ok, I have to ask. What the hell is BABIP? Is it something you get on your shirt while you're holding a baby?


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 Post subject: Re: Interesting numbers
PostPosted: Wed May 14, 2008 1:06 pm 
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Ralphie wrote:
Ok, I have to ask. What the hell is BABIP? Is it something you get on your shirt while you're holding a baby?


It's a Sabrmetrics acronym that stands for Batting Average on Balls In Play.

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 Post subject: Re: Interesting numbers
PostPosted: Wed May 14, 2008 1:20 pm 
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Bob in Boston wrote:
Ralphie wrote:
Ok, I have to ask. What the hell is BABIP? Is it something you get on your shirt while you're holding a baby?

It's an acronym that stands for Batting Average for Balls In Play.

From FireJoeMorgan.com:
Quote:
BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play)
Exactly what it sounds like -- a player's batting average on the balls he puts into play. BABIP doesn't include strikeouts or home runs because those balls aren't in play. Make sense? This stat is helpful to show the effect of luck on a player's batting average. For instance, if two weeks into the season, Yuniesky Betancourt is hitting .573 and John Kruk is proclaiming him the next Honus Wagner, you can calmly point to the fact that his BABIP is an astronomical .494 (along with the two facts that it's two weeks into the season and John Kruk has never been right about anything). One way to calculate BABIP is (H - HR) / (AB - HR - SO + SF).

This stat can also be applied to pitchers. There's a guy named Voros McCracken who was, a few years ago, literally like living in his mom’s basement, and he was noodling around with a computer and he discovered something that made people freak out in re: pitchers, which is: pitchers can’t really control much of what happens when a ball is put into play. In other words, pitchers can basically control their Ks, BBs, and HR, but even the best pitchers in the world cannot really control how many hits they give up year-to-year. One year Greg Maddux will give up a ton of hits, the next year very few, the year after a ton again. It’s counterintuitive, but true. ... This is why the pitchers who are really good over a long period of time are guys who are good at the few things they can control: they strike a lot of guys out, don’t walk very many people, and give up few HR.

What does this all mean? Well, if your favorite pitcher gets off to a terrible start, but he is striking out roughly the same number of guys per 9 innings that he has in the past, and he’s walking about the same number of guys he usually has, and he’s giving up HR at the same rate he usually has, but he’s allowing a BABIP of like .390, do not despair – he has gotten a little bit unlucky, probably, since the league is not going to have a .390 BA overall for the whole year. His BABIP will probably regress a little over time, and his ERA will “magically” go down. And then Kevin Kennedy will attribute the decrease in ERA to “getting his confidence back” or something, and you will smile knowingly.

FJM's explanation fails to mention that BABIP is also affected by team fielding defense, as a ball only falls in for a hit if the fielding defense cannot turn it into an out. However, the basic gist of BABIP is there.

FJM is not the most authoritative website on sabermetrics, but they are the most entertaining one. ;)

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 Post subject: Re: Interesting numbers
PostPosted: Wed May 14, 2008 1:51 pm 
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Bay's a tremendous hitter. He has 14 RBI's so far and only 7 have been himself on his home runs. More guys like him and we wouldn't score any runs.

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 Post subject: Re: Interesting numbers
PostPosted: Wed May 14, 2008 2:06 pm 
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Willton wrote:
From FireJoeMorgan.com:
One year Greg Maddux will give up a ton of hits, the next year very few, the year after a ton again. It’s counterintuitive, but true. ... This is why the pitchers who are really good over a long period of time are guys who are good at the few things they can control: they strike a lot of guys out, don’t walk very many people, and give up few HR.


Heard a fun story about Maddux last Friday. Leo Mazzone, his pitching coach with the Braves, was being interviewed on ESPN Radio and he recounted a situation one day when Maddux was in his prime. But he'd gotten himself into a jam in a close game, and Bobby Cox went out to the mound to confer with him. Mazzone said Cox wanted to know whether Maddux was getting tired and wanted to be relieved. If not, Cox was prepared to recommend intentionally walking the next batter to set up a force at any base. A couple of minutes later, Cox returned to the dugout and said to Mazzone, "You're not gonna believe this. He told me, 'No, I'll get him to pop out to third.'"

And he did on the next pitch, Mazzone said -- by burying it inside in a spot where the only thing the hitter could do was to lift it in the air to the left side of the infield.

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