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 Post subject: Re: What's A Successful Season?
PostPosted: Tue Jul 02, 2013 2:55 pm 
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PirateParrot wrote:
Why wouldn't your expectations change? The pirates get an open window for a much smaller time than other teams. THE WINDOW IS WIDE OPEN...RIGHT NOW! Sure a bunch of us had low expectations to start. That's the great part of fandom...when that team you live and die with surprises you. Heck, 82-80 would mean a third second half collapse in a row. Ending the losing streak would be great, but it would still leave a bitter taste in my mouth. This team may not make the playoffs, but they should be in it right to the end.

Some of you say they are ahead of schedule. Who made that schedule? We've heard five year plan after five year plan. This team looks ready now. When a few more young guns get here it just means they will be MORE ready.

I'm ready for playoff baseball...this season! That will mark a successful end to this season.

I'm fine with that interpretation. Then we need a RF upgrade.


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 Post subject: Re: What's A Successful Season?
PostPosted: Tue Jul 02, 2013 3:06 pm 
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StarlingArcher wrote:
I think there's a difference between hoping for the playoffs and setting the playoffs as the bar by which we judge a season's success.

I'm not saying I'm not hoping for the playoffs. Just that I'm not raising my bar to make that the standard based on one half of a season.

If they break .500 and don't make the playoffs, I won't bitch a bit because that's a big step in the right direction given the composition of the team. That, to me, is a success.



The question is being asked today? A record of 82-80 would require a collapse for a third straight year and there is no way I would consider that a success or even progress. I'm not just hoping for the playoffs, at this point I expect it. If they play .500 for the second half close to .500 and miss playoffs I'd still consider the season a success. My standard isn't playoffs or bust, but we've passed the point where 82-80 is good.
Has my bar for what I consider a successful season changed since the start of the year? Of course it has. (Although I did put down $50 at 50-1 to win WS). I think this team is still finding its way and will be be a better team the 2nd half, even if the record doesn't reflect it.


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 Post subject: Re: What's A Successful Season?
PostPosted: Tue Jul 02, 2013 4:19 pm 
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I expect that our hitting will get better but that our pitching and our luck will get worse.


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 Post subject: Re: What's A Successful Season?
PostPosted: Tue Jul 02, 2013 4:36 pm 
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I'll make the argument that the pitching will suffer some regression in the second half. If the team ERA is 3.75 in the second half (which I think is a more than reasonable assumption) they will give up approximately 304 runs in the second half. I also think it's reasonable to assume that the offensive production will remain constant so I'll state my second half assumption for the offense as being 320 runs scored.

This would put the Pirates' pythagorean W-L at 43-38 for the second half.

Therefore I would be somewhat disappointed with anything less than 94-68.

In reality though, a winning season of any sort would be huge for the Pirates.


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 Post subject: Re: What's A Successful Season?
PostPosted: Tue Jul 02, 2013 4:43 pm 
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Even going back 6 or 7 years ago, I have always argued that .500 should never be the goal. Being in contention for a playoff spot should be the measure of success. Who cares if you are .500 if you are 20 games plus back?

I will consider this season the be successful if we are still battling for a playoff spot make it or not come mid-September. If the Steelers, PSU, WVU and Pitt are playing football and people are still watching baseball then it have been a very successful season.


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 Post subject: Re: What's A Successful Season?
PostPosted: Tue Jul 02, 2013 6:07 pm 
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MoTownWV wrote:
Even going back 6 or 7 years ago, I have always argued that .500 should never be the goal. Being in contention for a playoff spot should be the measure of success. Who cares if you are .500 if you are 20 games plus back?

I will consider this season the be successful if we are still battling for a playoff spot make it or not come mid-September. If the Steelers, PSU, WVU and Pitt are playing football and people are still watching baseball then it have been a very successful season.

You are right, .500 baseball is not a success. That's mediocre.

However, if the Pirates make the playoffs this year and say, lose in the first round, 3 or 4 or 5 years from now, no one except perhaps devoted Buccos fans and Pittsburgh residents will ever remember.

We're talking about our legacy here, and folks, we are legacy bad right now. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have won a Super Bowl, but they are one of 18 teams to pulled that off. That doesn't register with even casual sports fans. Those guys do, though, remember that the Buccaneers started off 0-26. We possess a dubious record, and I had friends crawling out of the woodwork (granted I live in Orioles territory) to remind me that the team with the second longest streak of losing seasons in major American professional sports had broken their streak. We may not be on par with the Sox before 2004 or the Indians or Chicago's lovable losers, but we own a piece of sports infamy. And as a casual, yet devoted, fan of the Buccos, I want it gone more than I want a playoff this season.


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 Post subject: Re: What's A Successful Season?
PostPosted: Tue Jul 02, 2013 6:24 pm 
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MoTownWV wrote:
Who cares if you are .500 if you are 20 games plus back?


Well, me, for one. Lots of other people too, I'm sure.

A 20 year losing streak is an awful thing to have to carry around on your back.

Hey maybe we'll win the World Series this year and that would be wonderful. But you better believe I will celebrate when we record that 82nd victory, regardless of any other details.


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 Post subject: Re: What's A Successful Season?
PostPosted: Tue Jul 02, 2013 6:49 pm 
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Well this discussion has veered in a few different directions...

To try and summarize all points:

1. There is a BIG difference between a 'successful season' and '[changing] expectations' (and/or 'what is a successful season?' and 'why shouldn't your expectations change?')
2. As obvious by the thought of quickly changing them, expectations can dangerous things.
3. Expectations are fairly useless when one has hindsight and/or perspective (more on this in a bit).
4. To answer OP, any and every win above 81 will fulfill 'successful season'. The closer the Bucs come to 'WS Champs' the closer I will be to 'unbridaled joy'.

Per bullet 3 above:

This thread has pertinent talk about the 2009 and 2010 Bucs.

Consider how one or a few events could have changed the course of what has just happened. Not too get too 'Butterfly Effect!' on yous guys, but... if the Bucs don't trade Bay, or if they play a little better in 09/10 (or 11) or if any number of small events happen, current reality as we know it might not exist.

So, in grand perspective, what is cracking 81 and/or winning a WS worth?

All things considered, 2009 and 2010 will have been 'worth it' if it leads to success in 2012 and beyond; it's a more than fair trade off that most supporters of 'the Plan' have been willing to take. We didn't know that back in 2009-10. We believed and hoped for it, but we didn't know it.

So all this talk about 'expecting' whatever now seems equally futile. Expectations have been shattered a lot just these past 3-4 years, heck---just these past 3-4 months! So why should we continue to make them knowing they change so constantly (and inconsistently)?

81, 87, 100 wins... so longs as the Bucs end up on the right side of .500 it will be better than what we've gone through for 20 years. It's not as if breaking .500 is a be-all/end-all. The Bucs will continue to try and do everything possible to get better and, if recent history is any indication, they will succeed.

Overall, and as things come, just take what's given.

This is not to say that the Bucs shouldn't try and 'seize the day', but we shouldn't suddenly become 'all or nothing fans' after a mere four days of being #1 in MLB.

The first half of the season has been a resounding success. So long as fans continue to support the Bucs and enjoy what could be fruitful times that's what will make this and further seasons successful.

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Last edited by NSMaster56 on Tue Jul 02, 2013 6:53 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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 Post subject: Re: What's A Successful Season?
PostPosted: Tue Jul 02, 2013 6:50 pm 
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Scoobiedoo wrote:
Jump on the bandwagon with me.


Been on since 2008! ;) :D

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 Post subject: Re: What's A Successful Season?
PostPosted: Tue Jul 02, 2013 6:57 pm 
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One thing not mentioned yet is momentum. Man are we rolling! So, while I 'm not expecting 100 wins, the clubhouse attitude should do some good the rest of the way. They gotta believe. I know I do. Sure some key injuries to SP or bullpen guys could really slow us down or tired arms as we go down the stretch. Barring those considerations I think we are headed for at least 500 the second half which would put us at least at 92 wins and playoffs.

With the start we've had I would now be disappointed not to make it to the post season.

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 Post subject: Re: What's A Successful Season?
PostPosted: Tue Jul 02, 2013 9:59 pm 
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MoTownWV wrote:
Even going back 6 or 7 years ago, I have always argued that .500 should never be the goal. Being in contention for a playoff spot should be the measure of success. Who cares if you are .500 if you are 20 games plus back?

I will consider this season the be successful if we are still battling for a playoff spot make it or not come mid-September. If the Steelers, PSU, WVU and Pitt are playing football and people are still watching baseball then it have been a very successful season.

i have to agree... getting the 20-year monkey off our back would sure be nice but, honestly, finishing 2 games above .500 (or even at .500) doesn't strike me as a successful season, and i don't think many in the pirates organization would consider it a success either. the thing is, teams finish above .500 all of the time, it's not a lofty goal, and just because the pirates have defied all odds by not surpassing the .500 mark in 20 years straight, not even by accident, it doesn't mean that a whisker above .500 should be considered a successful year. anyway, this will all be moot when the dust finally settles on the 2013 season - not only will the pirates finish comfortably above .500, they're also gonna make the post season! go bucs!

here's a look at have fared over the past 20 seasons in terms of winning/losing records - also included is each team's max losing streak during this stretch. fwiw, the league average losing streak is 6 years while the mean average is 4 years.

Image


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 Post subject: Re: What's A Successful Season?
PostPosted: Tue Jul 02, 2013 10:30 pm 
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tprothro wrote:
so what would you consider to be a successful season for the 2013 pirates?

1. would finishing above .500 for the first time in 20 years be enough?
2. how about not winning the division, but making the postseason as the wild card team, but not making it past the first round?
3. how about winning the division, but not winning the pennant?
4. or are you an all or nothing type of fan, i.e. anything short of winning the world series can't be considered a successful season?

me? if the bucs make the postseason, whether it's as the division winner or a wild card team, that's enough for me in terms of considering it a successful season. of course doing more than that would be awfully sweet.

Contention for a playoff spot deep into September. That's my answer every year.

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 Post subject: Re: What's A Successful Season?
PostPosted: Tue Jul 02, 2013 10:35 pm 
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PirateParrot wrote:
Why wouldn't your expectations change? The pirates get an open window for a much smaller time than other teams. THE WINDOW IS WIDE OPEN...RIGHT NOW! Sure a bunch of us had low expectations to start. That's the great part of fandom...when that team you live and die with surprises you. Heck, 82-80 would mean a third second half collapse in a row. Ending the losing streak would be great, but it would still leave a bitter taste in my mouth. This team may not make the playoffs, but they should be in it right to the end.

Some of you say they are ahead of schedule. Who made that schedule? We've heard five year plan after five year plan. This team looks ready now. When a few more young guns get here it just means they will be MORE ready.

I'm ready for playoff baseball...this season! That will mark a successful end to this season.

I've noticed over the last couple of seasons is that the folks who had the lowest expectations for the Bucs in April tend to have the highest expectations by mid season. Not trying to be snarky or anything with that, by the way. It's just kind of funny the way that things work out. I predicted 86 wins (unless I'm mis-remembering), and I'll still be happy if they win 87.

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 Post subject: Re: What's A Successful Season?
PostPosted: Tue Jul 02, 2013 10:38 pm 
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Certainly finishing over 500 would be successful. But looks like we are looking at higher things which is a plus.


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 Post subject: Re: What's A Successful Season?
PostPosted: Tue Jul 02, 2013 10:47 pm 
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sisyphus wrote:
PirateParrot wrote:
Why wouldn't your expectations change? The pirates get an open window for a much smaller time than other teams. THE WINDOW IS WIDE OPEN...RIGHT NOW! Sure a bunch of us had low expectations to start. That's the great part of fandom...when that team you live and die with surprises you. Heck, 82-80 would mean a third second half collapse in a row. Ending the losing streak would be great, but it would still leave a bitter taste in my mouth. This team may not make the playoffs, but they should be in it right to the end.

Some of you say they are ahead of schedule. Who made that schedule? We've heard five year plan after five year plan. This team looks ready now. When a few more young guns get here it just means they will be MORE ready.

I'm ready for playoff baseball...this season! That will mark a successful end to this season.

I've noticed over the last couple of seasons is that the folks who had the lowest expectations for the Bucs in April tend to have the highest expectations by mid season. Not trying to be snarky or anything with that, by the way. It's just kind of funny the way that things work out. I predicted 86 wins (unless I'm mis-remembering), and I'll still be happy if they win 87.

I had lower expectations because the pitching staff worried me greatly, plus I wasn't a big believer in Martin(gladly very wrong). I don't always have low expectations, although 20 years Can do that to you. But I think it is natural and fair to change expectations as a season goes along. I'm just glad my expectations are being adjusted upward!


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