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 Post subject: Gerrit Cole - IP and endurance
PostPosted: Mon Jul 01, 2013 11:03 am 
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With Wandy going down and Cole staying in the rotation . . . I have two questions:
(1) Are they going to put a cap on Cole's innings pitched? I know that NH says "no" but . . .
(2) If they don't shut him down, does his endurance become something to watch?

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 Post subject: Re: Gerrit Cole - IP and endurance
PostPosted: Mon Jul 01, 2013 11:41 am 
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On (1), they have to. You can't let a 22-year-old franchise pitcher throw 200+ innings the year after he totalled 132 innings. You can't do that. He'll need to be managed, skip three or four starts, and try to be ready for September and (hopefully) October.

As to (2), you always have to watch a young pitcher's endurance during a six-month season. That's another reason I hope the Pirates treat Cole in much the same way the Cardinals are treating Michael Wacha. The Cards are sending Wacha, who threw about 134 innings last season, back to AAA to skip a few starts so that he can help them down the stretch.


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 Post subject: Re: Gerrit Cole - IP and endurance
PostPosted: Mon Jul 01, 2013 12:02 pm 
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I've posited this a couple of times.

Look the former Cleveland FO type to treat Cole like the Indians treated a rookie CC Sabathia. His innings won't be monitored, but his pitch counts will. If they do it this way, they'll be able to get starts out of Cole through the playoffs while not overstressing his pitch count for the year.

Really, I see it as coming down to getting continued effective bullpen help in August and after September call up. Possibly another solid Crumpton start or two, and if Wandy is out for a while, a trade for another Wandy this year.

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: Gerrit Cole - IP and endurance
PostPosted: Mon Jul 01, 2013 12:10 pm 
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It's worth pointing out that Hurdle said a couple of weeks ago that pitch counts for all starters is now out the window ...

Quote:
My approach in terms of pitches, actually we were having a conversation today, I’m not paying attention to the number of pitches anymore, the rest of the year, for anybody. I’m serious. Just so you know.

I want to make sure we have nobody looking at the rear view mirror at 95 pitches thinking “I’ll only got so many left.” That’s out the window. Gerritt’s in that group as well. I mean, just pitch. If you want to have a goal. Some of us men need goals. Pitch seven full innings and we’ll figure it out after that what our next step is. That’s where we’re going.


Obviously, we'll see how that plays out.


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 Post subject: Re: Gerrit Cole - IP and endurance
PostPosted: Mon Jul 01, 2013 12:45 pm 
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ZelieMike wrote:
Look the former Cleveland FO type to treat Cole like the Indians treated a rookie CC Sabathia. His innings won't be monitored, but his pitch counts will. If they do it this way, they'll be able to get starts out of Cole through the playoffs while not overstressing his pitch count for the year.




Sabathia's pitch counts as a rookie were very high - 186 IP's with a high K rate and a very high BB rate. Likely equivalent pitch counts to finesse pitchers with 225+ innings. I hope they don't intend to give him a workload anywhere close to that of CC as a rookie.


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 Post subject: Re: Gerrit Cole - IP and endurance
PostPosted: Mon Jul 01, 2013 12:48 pm 
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Ya know, maybe Cole is a horse, a freak of nature, a Nolan, a Roger, and maybe he wont need to be monitored. The guy is solid. I'm sure he'll relay if he's getting tired. The boy ain't no prima donna.


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 Post subject: Re: Gerrit Cole - IP and endurance
PostPosted: Mon Jul 01, 2013 12:49 pm 
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Didn't Cleveland similarly run Fausto Carmona into the ground one post season?


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 Post subject: Re: Gerrit Cole - IP and endurance
PostPosted: Mon Jul 01, 2013 1:36 pm 
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Ken wrote:
ZelieMike wrote:
Look the former Cleveland FO type to treat Cole like the Indians treated a rookie CC Sabathia. His innings won't be monitored, but his pitch counts will. If they do it this way, they'll be able to get starts out of Cole through the playoffs while not overstressing his pitch count for the year.




Sabathia's pitch counts as a rookie were very high - 186 IP's with a high K rate and a very high BB rate. Likely equivalent pitch counts to finesse pitchers with 225+ innings. I hope they don't intend to give him a workload anywhere close to that of CC as a rookie.


No, Sabathia's workload was monitored as pitches per game, so that he could pitch into September, with obviously, no side effects the next year.

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: Gerrit Cole - IP and endurance
PostPosted: Mon Jul 01, 2013 2:30 pm 
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I don't believe the Pirates aren't monitoring pitch counts or innings, despite what anyone says.

And I definitely don't consider Cole any kind of exception that doesn't need to be monitored. His arm is a treasure that needs to be guarded accordingly.

Halladay and Verlander were a couple of pitchers who were considered exceptions. They pitched more innings and higher pitch counts than anyone else.

How's that working out this year?


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 Post subject: Re: Gerrit Cole - IP and endurance
PostPosted: Mon Jul 01, 2013 2:59 pm 
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In fairness, Verlander and Halladay are 30 and 36 respectively. They're more examples of why you don't give pitchers huge contracts than how to use them. The Pirates don't need to worry about if Cole starts breaking down in his 30's because ideally he isn't here at that age. You're taking a huge gamble on a guy still producing at that point in his career, regardless of how he was handled previously. The body is going to naturally start to decline and 8-14 years of wear and tear is a ton no matter how the innings and pitches are distributed.

Still think he must be managed this year, if only to avoid arm issues in the next 6 years.

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 Post subject: Re: Gerrit Cole - IP and endurance
PostPosted: Mon Jul 01, 2013 3:18 pm 
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StarlingArcher wrote:
In fairness, Verlander and Halladay are 30 and 36 respectively. They're more examples of why you don't give pitchers huge contracts than how to use them. The Pirates don't need to worry about if Cole starts breaking down in his 30's because ideally he isn't here at that age. You're taking a huge gamble on a guy still producing at that point in his career, regardless of how he was handled previously. The body is going to naturally start to decline and 8-14 years of wear and tear is a ton no matter how the innings and pitches are distributed.

Still think he must be managed this year, if only to avoid arm issues in the next 6 years.


Halladay missed a lot of time in 2004 when he was 27 because of 2 straight years of pitching 230 plus innings...

Quote:
Halladay has encountered shoulder problems before, most notably while with the Toronto Blue Jays in 2004 when he spent two stints on the disabled list and was limited to 21 starts and 133 innings after throwing a career-high 266 innings in going 22-7 and winning his first Cy Young Award the season before.


http://www.sportingnews.com/mlb/story/2 ... e-shoulder

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 Post subject: Re: Gerrit Cole - IP and endurance
PostPosted: Mon Jul 01, 2013 3:24 pm 
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Maybe not the greatest examples but still you have to be careful with your most valuable assets.

With the way our bullpen is going, I'm perfectly happy with 6 out of the starter. 7 is a bonus. I don't even want him out there after 7 unless its an exceptional night.


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 Post subject: Re: Gerrit Cole - IP and endurance
PostPosted: Mon Jul 01, 2013 3:31 pm 
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Yeah but I think you'll have nagging stuff with any pitcher at some point in time no matter how you handle them. I'm expecting a DL stint for Cole at some point in the next year or two. You just can't ruin them. Halladay was definitely not ruined, which is the key. Right now he seems to be headed for the glue factory...and I think that's more because of age than anything that happened 7-8 years ago. 36 is 36....that's pretty old for a pitcher.

Johan Santana, IMO, was a guy who was ruined. He's been pretty much a walking injury for several years. Granted, it happened at age 30 but at least Doc and Verlander can pitch.

I think as long as they pitch him smartly enough to keep the arm relatively healthy for the next 5-6 years, they should be good. Maybe cap him around 175 tops, which would be slightly aggressive but hopefully not catastrophic.

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 Post subject: Re: Gerrit Cole - IP and endurance
PostPosted: Tue Jul 02, 2013 9:52 pm 
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ZelieMike wrote:
I've posited this a couple of times.

Look the former Cleveland FO type to treat Cole like the Indians treated a rookie CC Sabathia. His innings won't be monitored, but his pitch counts will. If they do it this way, they'll be able to get starts out of Cole through the playoffs while not overstressing his pitch count for the year.

Really, I see it as coming down to getting continued effective bullpen help in August and after September call up. Possibly another solid Crumpton start or two, and if Wandy is out for a while, a trade for another Wandy this year.

ZM

I think you hit the nail on the head with that one.

Works out well, since Cole can't get anybody out on his third time through the lineup anyway.

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 Post subject: Re: Gerrit Cole - IP and endurance
PostPosted: Tue Jul 02, 2013 9:53 pm 
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buccosfan77 wrote:
Ya know, maybe Cole is a horse, a freak of nature, a Nolan, a Roger, and maybe he wont need to be monitored. The guy is solid. I'm sure he'll relay if he's getting tired. The boy ain't no prima donna.

Maybe you're right.

And maybe his arm falls off. How much are you willing to risk?

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 Post subject: Re: Gerrit Cole - IP and endurance
PostPosted: Tue Jul 02, 2013 10:02 pm 
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ZelieMike wrote:
Ken wrote:
ZelieMike wrote:
Look the former Cleveland FO type to treat Cole like the Indians treated a rookie CC Sabathia. His innings won't be monitored, but his pitch counts will. If they do it this way, they'll be able to get starts out of Cole through the playoffs while not overstressing his pitch count for the year.




Sabathia's pitch counts as a rookie were very high - 186 IP's with a high K rate and a very high BB rate. Likely equivalent pitch counts to finesse pitchers with 225+ innings. I hope they don't intend to give him a workload anywhere close to that of CC as a rookie.


No, Sabathia's workload was monitored as pitches per game, so that he could pitch into September, with obviously, no side effects the next year.

ZM


The facts don't exactly support your position.

Mr. Sabathia threw more than 101 pitches in 17 of his 33 starts in his rookie year. If they were monitoring pitches per game, perhaps the person in charge of monitoring those pitch counts fell asleep in the dugout?

However, he threw 146 innings in the minors in 2000, and 180 in his rookie year, a difference of 34 innings (less than a 25% increase).

Using similar guidelines, Cole should throw about 160 innings this year. Basically, he has about 70 innings left.


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 Post subject: Re: Gerrit Cole - IP and endurance
PostPosted: Tue Jul 02, 2013 10:23 pm 
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No, BBF, no.

My point was that they monitored the increase in pitches, not innings. And, your data support this. I don't care if he threw 100 pitches in his rookie year, because it was part of his ramp up from the MiLB. My point is that pitches are the better metric to monitor.

Of course it will be different with Cole, or any other pitcher. Cole pitches to contact and registers about 85 per game. You build off of that, as you build off of Sabathia's MiLB numbers.

You can get Cole to pitch for you most of this year, without overly stressing him if you follow his pitch count rather than a raw "innings pitched' number.

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: Gerrit Cole - IP and endurance
PostPosted: Wed Jul 03, 2013 11:53 am 
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buccosfan77 wrote:
Ya know, maybe Cole is a horse, a freak of nature, a Nolan, a Roger, and maybe he wont need to be monitored. The guy is solid. I'm sure he'll relay if he's getting tired. The boy ain't no prima donna.

Betting your organization's future on a "maybe he's a freak of nature" notion is about the most reckless thing the Pirates can do.

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