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 Post subject: Re: Who's your pirates MVP so far?
PostPosted: Sun Jun 30, 2013 10:22 pm 
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Az Bucco fan wrote:
Today it was Russell Martin......can I change it at a whim??? ;) ;)

Yes ... yes, you can.

P.S. Mine is Tony Watson. No idea why some were talking about "adding" a left-handed reliever to go with Wilson.

Watson is filthy.


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 Post subject: Re: Who's your pirates MVP so far?
PostPosted: Sun Jun 30, 2013 11:48 pm 
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Watson is a big rangy lefty with a wicked angle. Bullpen has been outstanding...to state the obvious... :P :P :P


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 Post subject: Re: Who's your pirates MVP so far?
PostPosted: Mon Jul 01, 2013 2:25 pm 
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I think the biggest change has been behind the plate, so the single most important addition would be Martin. And he's got some pop. So, I'll go with Martin as MVP at the half way point.

And I'll go with Mercer as my second choice, not so much for his play, but because coupled with Martin, our bottom third of the lineup is not so much of a disaster anymore. We still strike out too much, but we no longer have automatic outs in the lineup. And that's what Martin and Mercer (and Cole too, even) have given us. So with Pedro uneven (still) and Marte cooled off and McCutchen still not at 2012 levels, we're still able to win a lot of games, at any spot in the lineup and in any inning.


Last edited by val on Mon Jul 01, 2013 3:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Who's your pirates MVP so far?
PostPosted: Mon Jul 01, 2013 2:44 pm 
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Cutch. Tops on the team in WAR with a 4.0, and fourth among all NL position players:

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/ ... asontype/2

He hasn't been as good with the bat as he was in 2012, but he's been better in the field (0.9 dWAR) and on the bases (16/4 SB/CS) so far in 2013.


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 Post subject: Re: Who's your pirates MVP so far?
PostPosted: Mon Jul 01, 2013 3:03 pm 
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Animal wrote:
The MOST amazing there here...nobody has said our BEST player, Cutch! (and rightly so!)
Just wait till he gets it going every day!


Yes, he's still undoubtedly this team's cornerstone. In a poll of best player, he's my pick and it isn't close. And I think Locke and Liriano have had great years for the staff.

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 Post subject: Re: Who's your pirates MVP so far?
PostPosted: Mon Jul 01, 2013 3:10 pm 
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The lack of McCutchen votes is more of a testament that for the first time during his tenure with the Pirates, there are quality pieces succeeding around him than of his own play.


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 Post subject: Re: Who's your pirates MVP so far?
PostPosted: Mon Jul 01, 2013 4:10 pm 
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TheShark wrote:
The lack of McCutchen votes is more of a testament that for the first time during his tenure with the Pirates, there are quality pieces succeeding around him than of his own play.


Amen. I don't think anybody has lost faith in Cutch or thinks any less of him. It's just how amazing so many other players have been for us! And fun!

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 Post subject: Re: Who's your pirates MVP so far?
PostPosted: Mon Jul 01, 2013 5:01 pm 
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This is a really tough question to answer, and that is a very good thing, IMO.

Here's why - if 1 or 2 players are "carrying" the team, than a slump or injury kills the team.

If the team has 7 or 10 guys competing for MVP, then it is a better team.

My team MVP is Martin. Watching him catch the ball so quietly, and control the opposition's running game, and hit well, and do everything asked of him for such a tough position leads me to give him the nod over McCutchen, Marte, Alvarez, Burnett, Grilli, Melancon, Locke and Liriano.


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 Post subject: Re: Who's your pirates MVP so far?
PostPosted: Tue Jul 02, 2013 2:01 am 
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I say Pedro, but so many other guys have contributed soooo much such as Martin, AJ, Locke, Liriano, Grilli, Cutch, Marte.
The Pirates have had multiple mvps = wins

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 Post subject: Re: Who's your pirates MVP so far?
PostPosted: Tue Jul 02, 2013 9:06 am 
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although nit a player, gotta give it up for searage...


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 Post subject: Re: Who's your pirates MVP so far?
PostPosted: Tue Jul 02, 2013 10:48 am 
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Well, Billy Ripken on the MLB channel just put his vote in for Jason Grilli...but not just as the Pirates MVP but for all of the NL! I appreciate the praise for our boys but wow! A closer as MVP?


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 Post subject: Re: Who's your pirates MVP so far?
PostPosted: Tue Jul 02, 2013 11:06 am 
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I still can't believe Cutch isn't getting a ton of love for being on pace for a ridiculous 8.0 WAR season. He's been a bit quieter this year in terms of home runs, but that's an MVP-caliber number.


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 Post subject: Re: Who's your pirates MVP so far?
PostPosted: Tue Jul 02, 2013 11:53 am 
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J_C_Steel wrote:
I still can't believe Cutch isn't getting a ton of love for being on pace for a ridiculous 8.0 WAR season. He's been a bit quieter this year in terms of home runs, but that's an MVP-caliber number.


That's now how WAR works. You can't project that the WAR of a player halfway through the season is going to double in the second half like you can for the pace of HRs a player is going to hit. His career year last year, for example, he put up a 6.8 WAR. Putting up a 8.0 would be something Miguel Cabrera has never even done, and McCutchen certainly isn't " on pace" for it.


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 Post subject: Re: Who's your pirates MVP so far?
PostPosted: Tue Jul 02, 2013 11:55 am 
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TheShark wrote:
J_C_Steel wrote:
I still can't believe Cutch isn't getting a ton of love for being on pace for a ridiculous 8.0 WAR season. He's been a bit quieter this year in terms of home runs, but that's an MVP-caliber number.


That's now how WAR works. You can't project that the WAR of a player halfway through the season is going to double in the second half like you can for the pace of HRs a player is going to hit. His career year last year, for example, he put up a 6.8 WAR. Putting up a 8.0 would be something Miguel Cabrera has never even done, and McCutchen certainly isn't " on pace" for it.


Hold on. Maybe I'm dumb, but please tell me how this doesn't work.

Cutch put up a 4.0 WAR in 81 games so far this season. If he plays at exactly the same level over the next 81 games, wouldn't he post another 4.0 WAR? And wouldn't that add up to 8.0?

And last year, he had a 7.0 WAR according to BA/ESPN (7.5 oWAR and -0.5 dWAR).


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 Post subject: Re: Who's your pirates MVP so far?
PostPosted: Tue Jul 02, 2013 12:14 pm 
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I think the biggest thing to remember is that WAR isn't good for comparing players across positions, due to the positional aspect of the stat.

For instance, Cutch being an 8.0 WAR and a guy like Matt Carpenter being a 9.0 WAR (hypothetically) wouldn't mean Carpenter is better. Carpenter is a 2B, which has extremely low standards positionally and is reflected in the positional adjustment.

It wouldn't surprise me if Cutch winds up being an 8.0 WAR even though Cabrera has never reached that level, because 3B has significantly higher standards than CF when it comes to hitting. A replacement level 3B is going to outhit a guy like Denard Span (.682 OPS and a 0.7 oWAR....to illustrate how low the positional standards are) and Ben Revere, for example. So Cutch is far and away better than a replacement CF at the dish and solid in the field to not be too impacted by the defensive aspect relative to the hitting.

I think Cutch would wind up about an 8 WAR if he keep a it up, but we've seen him have 2nd half swoons at the plate and on the bases so I wouldn't guarantee it.

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 Post subject: Re: Who's your pirates MVP so far?
PostPosted: Tue Jul 02, 2013 1:01 pm 
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J_C_Steel wrote:
Cutch put up a 4.0 WAR in 81 games so far this season. If he plays at exactly the same level over the next 81 games, wouldn't he post another 4.0 WAR? And wouldn't that add up to 8.0?


My 6.8 WAR figure last year comes from Fangraphs data, where they currently have McCutchen at 3.5

My post wasn't purely academic, just a personal view, but I wouldn't make statements like that a player is projected to double his WAR halfway through the season due to it being so contextual. I was probably being a bit harsh say he isn't on pace to reach that type of number, I just don't think he will. With McCutchen specifically one of the reasons is what SA touched on in to really improve he'd need to do the reverse of what he has done the last few years with his second half batting trends. Of course he did rebound in the final month last year and perhaps it isn't really fair to hold that against him any longer, but I would hope if the rest of the offense significantly regresses in the second half we wouldn't see a repeat of 2011 where he visibly (and ultimately statistically) shows he was trying to do too much to compensate. Positionally, last year there Bourn was really the only challenger of McCutchen and Trout's ridiculous rookie season, it does tend to look the same this year if we anticipate serious regression from Carlos Gomez (this also made me realize how much Shin-Soo Choo has fallen since his blistering hot April/May ... wow.


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 Post subject: Re: Who's your pirates MVP so far?
PostPosted: Tue Jul 02, 2013 1:18 pm 
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Cutch has the look of a player who will bust out sometime in the coming months. He is just hitting too many balls, too hard for too long now, not to.

How's about them "to's".

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: Who's your pirates MVP so far?
PostPosted: Tue Jul 02, 2013 1:30 pm 
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ZelieMike wrote:
Cutch has the look of a player who will bust out sometime in the coming months. He is just hitting too many balls, too hard for too long now, not to.

ZM

I think so, too. McCutchen's outs the past 6 weeks have been hit harder than most base hits against the Pirates' staff. He hits so many screaming line drive outs that this stuff HAS to even out.


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 Post subject: Re: Who's your pirates MVP so far?
PostPosted: Tue Jul 02, 2013 6:43 pm 
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I agree that his recent past has shown hard hit balls and that will show over the season. But two things:
1. expectations for him are very high. He has not lived up to last season at the plate.
2. He seems to be swinging at a lot of bad pitches and has too often gone down on k's. Not only has his HR production gone down but so has his RBI numbers.

He's still cutch and by far the most necessary player on the team but not the MVP for the first half.

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 Post subject: Re: Who's your pirates MVP so far?
PostPosted: Tue Jul 02, 2013 7:05 pm 
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MVP: (Co-MVP) Russell Martin and Starling Marte

Biggest Surprise: Jeff Locke

Biggest Disappointment: Garrett Jones

Best/Defining Moment of the Season: When AJ and Wandy went down with injuries and Cole got called up. This team could have really folded but they stayed the course and Cole delivered as promised for 4 starts. I think it really showed what this team is all about this year.


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