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 Post subject: Re: June 26, 2013 Pirates (47-30) at Mariners (34-44)
PostPosted: Wed Jun 26, 2013 8:04 pm 
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ZelieMike wrote:
Its a point I've seen made a couple times now. That while we see these guys a lot, they really are not being overused or pushed beyond their limits, or at least a reasonable uptick for the year.


Thanks for noting, I wasn't really aware of the projections nor concerned about the overall usage, I just know that it was a talking point that was getting brought up at some point last month that pointed to the fact that we might see bullpen regression due to it.


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 Post subject: Re: June 26, 2013 Pirates (47-30) at Mariners (34-44)
PostPosted: Thu Jun 27, 2013 2:57 am 
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Ackley to me seems like a guy who could use a change of scenery. Too sweet a swing to dismiss.

Jordy was a big defensive blip on the screen today and I be the learns from it and in the long run it did not cost us a game..in fact he drove in the winning run..there is a learning curve..plus that damn shift was a factor on the one play.... :roll: :roll: :roll:


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 Post subject: Re: June 26, 2013 Pirates (47-30) at Mariners (34-44)
PostPosted: Thu Jun 27, 2013 3:15 am 
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Az Bucco fan wrote:
plus that damn shift was a factor on the one play.... :roll: :roll: :roll:

Az - I read on article somewhere, noting that the Rays' BABIP was significantly lower than league average over a span of five seasons - something like 25 points below league average. The reason? The shifts they use.

The Buccos have been using those shifts nearly as much as the Rays and their BABIP is low this year - very low.

The Rays and Pirates are leading the trend towards such shifts and will continue to benefit from them, I hope.


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 Post subject: Re: June 26, 2013 Pirates (47-30) at Mariners (34-44)
PostPosted: Thu Jun 27, 2013 9:52 am 
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What is ironic, is how much grief the Bucs got for introducing this concept a few years ago with their outfield shifts.

Looks like they were way ahead of the curve.

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: June 26, 2013 Pirates (47-30) at Mariners (34-44)
PostPosted: Thu Jun 27, 2013 1:59 pm 
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Bucfan wrote:
Az Bucco fan wrote:
plus that damn shift was a factor on the one play.... :roll: :roll: :roll:

Az - I read on article somewhere, noting that the Rays' BABIP was significantly lower than league average over a span of five seasons - something like 25 points below league average. The reason? The shifts they use.

The Buccos have been using those shifts nearly as much as the Rays and their BABIP is low this year - very low.

The Rays and Pirates are leading the trend towards such shifts and will continue to benefit from them, I hope.


Was reading a bunch of random stuff leading up to the draft and it was interesting how often the Rays and Pirates would be mentioned at or near the top of similar lists (such as the lists of most sabremetrically inclined teams and teams that draft most heavily based on tools).

And it kind of makes sense, the Pirates definitely have their types and don't stray too heavily from them. Pitchers they love either a) big stuff (or the potential for it) or b) big sinker/groundballers.

They've implemented the Rays plan about as well as you could reasonably expect so far, given their starting point. They've deviated from time to time, but Burnett, Wandy, Martin, and (so far) Liriano were certainly worth it. Plus, they have a bit more financial flexibility than the Rays anyway.

Sawchik or Santelli tweeted last week that they had the best defensive efficiency in baseball, and given the fact that the market inefficiency is currently in defense (case in point, Russell Martin) that's what you'd want to see.

They've got a nice combination right now of strikeout/groundball pitchers, a strong defense, and a ballpark that doesn't cough up cheap homeruns.

In retrospect, people were using Jeremy Hellickson as an example of why Jeff Locke wouldn't outperform his FIP.....maybe he could have been an example of how he can.

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 Post subject: Re: June 26, 2013 Pirates (47-30) at Mariners (34-44)
PostPosted: Thu Jun 27, 2013 2:16 pm 
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Let me clarify my opinion of the shift. I am not against it and it does seem to work.. What rankled me on that play was that there was confusion on who would cover the bag on the force out. Work the kinks out boys....and I am sure they did.... 8-) 8-) 8-)


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 Post subject: Re: June 26, 2013 Pirates (47-30) at Mariners (34-44)
PostPosted: Thu Jun 27, 2013 2:42 pm 
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Az Bucco fan wrote:
Let me clarify my opinion of the shift. I am not against it and it does seem to work.. What rankled me on that play was that there was confusion on who would cover the bag on the force out. Work the kinks out boys....and I am sure they did.... 8-) 8-) 8-)


That was a rookie mistake on Mercer's part, and one you have to live with as he settles down. What I like of what I've seen from him so far is the he seems to learn from his mistakes.

Starling, I think the organizational structure is probably more akin to the Indians than the Rays. Early John Hart/Shapiro Indians than anything. Which kinda makes sense seeing where most of the FO came from.

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: June 26, 2013 Pirates (47-30) at Mariners (34-44)
PostPosted: Thu Jun 27, 2013 3:02 pm 
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Az Bucco fan wrote:
Let me clarify my opinion of the shift. I am not against it and it does seem to work.. What rankled me on that play was that there was confusion on who would cover the bag on the force out. Work the kinks out boys....and I am sure they did.... 8-) 8-) 8-)


Mercer was definitely confused. Alvarez looked to be in an excellent position to take the throw from Sanchez. I don't have any idea why anyone, let alone a major leaguer, would think that someone in Mercer's position on that play would have the responsibility for covering second on a ground ball to the right side of the infield. You always have to have a clue where everyone on the field is positioned. Looked like Mercer assumed that Alvarez would have been playing his position normally or . . . worse . . . experienced vapor lock.

Mental mistake and eminently preventable.

But, as you note, I don't expect that we will see it again. Just glad that it did not result in a bigger inning for the Mariners and the Bucs' bats came through in crunch time.

And, to be fair to Mercer, he made at least one, if not two, very good defensive plays at SS during Tuesday night's game in Seattle.

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 Post subject: Re: June 26, 2013 Pirates (47-30) at Mariners (34-44)
PostPosted: Thu Jun 27, 2013 4:07 pm 
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I think they're similar to the Rays in the fact that they identify a certain type of prospect or player that they like, and hoard them. They have a system. And they are pretty much setting themselves up for maximum flexibility during the "window" years, much like the Rays. I don't think it's a coincidence that all of their veteran contracts are due to expire next year, when (if all goes well) Taillon is up with Cole. And the long-term contracts they DO have are extremely team friendly.

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 Post subject: Re: June 26, 2013 Pirates (47-30) at Mariners (34-44)
PostPosted: Thu Jun 27, 2013 8:52 pm 
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StarlingArcher wrote:
I think they're similar to the Rays in the fact that they identify a certain type of prospect or player that they like, and hoard them. They have a system. And they are pretty much setting themselves up for maximum flexibility during the "window" years, much like the Rays. I don't think it's a coincidence that all of their veteran contracts are due to expire next year, when (if all goes well) Taillon is up with Cole. And the long-term contracts they DO have are extremely team friendly.


This.

Well said.

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 Post subject: Re: June 26, 2013 Pirates (47-30) at Mariners (34-44)
PostPosted: Thu Jun 27, 2013 9:25 pm 
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StarlingArcher wrote:
I think they're similar to the Rays in the fact that they identify a certain type of prospect or player that they like, and hoard them. They have a system. And they are pretty much setting themselves up for maximum flexibility during the "window" years, much like the Rays. I don't think it's a coincidence that all of their veteran contracts are due to expire next year, when (if all goes well) Taillon is up with Cole. And the long-term contracts they DO have are extremely team friendly.

And yet, a certain contingent still demands that Huntington and Coonelly need to be fired, today.

I kid you not. Just go over to the Pirates' official site, and look at some of the dudes on their message board.

You want to know why Corsair, ZM, Az, and I have been HERE so long? That is one big reason why.

That, and the free pie.

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 Post subject: Re: June 26, 2013 Pirates (47-30) at Mariners (34-44)
PostPosted: Thu Jun 27, 2013 10:42 pm 
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Bucfan wrote:
And yet, a certain contingent still demands that Huntington and Coonelly need to be fired, today.

I kid you not. Just go over to the Pirates' official site, and look at some of the dudes on their message board.

You want to know why Corsair, ZM, Az, and I have been HERE so long? That is one big reason why.

That, and the free pie.

Image


Can't beat free pie.

And I really think the football mentality of the city kills the Pirates. Fans want instant gratification out of drafts and think the only piece of the franchise is the major league team. In football, you're pretty much guaranteed to see what, maybe 5 or 6 guys you draft wind up on the roster the next year? Steelers always seem to wind up with a random OL, DB, or LB they drafted in the 6-7 rounds on the roster. If you get 5 or 6 guys to the majors in baseball that's a very, very good draft and if a pick gets to the majors in 2 years that's absolutely flying through the system.

I think the 5-year plan also really skewed thoughts as well and made people believe that you should be able to turn a franchise around in 5 years. Now, there are definitely times that you can, but not with the system that this front office inherited in 2007 or the major league team they took over.

There are definitely people who question the execution of their plan, but unless you're expecting them to win almost every trade, hit on a disproportionate amount of draft picks who fly through the system, and get themselves into situations where they have bad contracts to aging veterans blocking young assets, they have quite literally gone by the book in terms of setting up the franchise to succeed over a very defined window. I left the scout.com site for much of the same reason you guys left the official site MB.

Here's an article that was actually posted earlier today about the system and how dire the situation was when they took over and why it's finally starting to get publicity. Awesome read, it was one of the better pieces I've read recently in terms of breaking things down economically (beyond "by golly, the Pirates can spend like Milwaukee in later years!") and in terms of the time it takes for guys to develop, break out, and gain recognition.

http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/06/first-pitch-why-does-the-pirates-farm-system-seem-different-this-year.html

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 Post subject: Re: June 26, 2013 Pirates (47-30) at Mariners (34-44)
PostPosted: Thu Jun 27, 2013 11:16 pm 
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A la mode?????? :P :P :P :P :P


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 Post subject: Re: June 26, 2013 Pirates (47-30) at Mariners (34-44)
PostPosted: Thu Jun 27, 2013 11:34 pm 
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StarlingArcher wrote:
Bucfan wrote:
And yet, a certain contingent still demands that Huntington and Coonelly need to be fired, today.

I kid you not. Just go over to the Pirates' official site, and look at some of the dudes on their message board.

You want to know why Corsair, ZM, Az, and I have been HERE so long? That is one big reason why.

That, and the free pie.

Image


Can't beat free pie.

And I really think the football mentality of the city kills the Pirates. Fans want instant gratification out of drafts and think the only piece of the franchise is the major league team. In football, you're pretty much guaranteed to see what, maybe 5 or 6 guys you draft wind up on the roster the next year? Steelers always seem to wind up with a random OL, DB, or LB they drafted in the 6-7 rounds on the roster. If you get 5 or 6 guys to the majors in baseball that's a very, very good draft and if a pick gets to the majors in 2 years that's absolutely flying through the system.

I think the 5-year plan also really skewed thoughts as well and made people believe that you should be able to turn a franchise around in 5 years. Now, there are definitely times that you can, but not with the system that this front office inherited in 2007 or the major league team they took over.

There are definitely people who question the execution of their plan, but unless you're expecting them to win almost every trade, hit on a disproportionate amount of draft picks who fly through the system, and get themselves into situations where they have bad contracts to aging veterans blocking young assets, they have quite literally gone by the book in terms of setting up the franchise to succeed over a very defined window. I left the scout.com site for much of the same reason you guys left the official site MB.

Here's an article that was actually posted earlier today about the system and how dire the situation was when they took over and why it's finally starting to get publicity. Awesome read, it was one of the better pieces I've read recently in terms of breaking things down economically (beyond "by golly, the Pirates can spend like Milwaukee in later years!") and in terms of the time it takes for guys to develop, break out, and gain recognition.

http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/06/first-pitch-why-does-the-pirates-farm-system-seem-different-this-year.html


That issue is multi-pronged:

1. MLB teams can draft players out of HS, and the learning curve from HS ball to pro is absurd (compared to other sports like basketball, soccer, and even football). These guys tend to "disappear" for 5 years, and a lot of the time end up popping up on teams that didn't even draft them.

2. Even for the college kids, the learning curve is high. But also, unlike in the NFL, where high 1st rounders are expected to play right away, low 1st rounders are expect to have some kind of significant impact at some point in season 1 or 2, and the rest sit on the bench for a couple years or play in a substitute role, MLB rookies are sent to the farm. That means NFL rookies are visible on the "big roster", not just to fans but to the local media as well. Meanwhile, the Pirates' rookies are in Florida or a couple hours away in West Virginia or Altoona.

3. While the NFL usually has several "immediate impact" players per draft (players who have big roles within their first 2 seasons), MLB's numbers are significantly lower, and that's mostly do that previously mentioned learning curve.

4. This city has been waiting for 21 years to see a playoff-caliber team, and for a long time they've been told "the players are in the system".


Last edited by RTJR on Thu Jun 27, 2013 11:40 pm, edited 4 times in total.

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 Post subject: Re: June 26, 2013 Pirates (47-30) at Mariners (34-44)
PostPosted: Thu Jun 27, 2013 11:35 pm 
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StarlingArcher wrote:
Bucfan wrote:
And yet, a certain contingent still demands that Huntington and Coonelly need to be fired, today.

I kid you not. Just go over to the Pirates' official site, and look at some of the dudes on their message board.

You want to know why Corsair, ZM, Az, and I have been HERE so long? That is one big reason why.

That, and the free pie.

Image


Can't beat free pie.

And I really think the football mentality of the city kills the Pirates. Fans want instant gratification out of drafts and think the only piece of the franchise is the major league team. In football, you're pretty much guaranteed to see what, maybe 5 or 6 guys you draft wind up on the roster the next year? Steelers always seem to wind up with a random OL, DB, or LB they drafted in the 6-7 rounds on the roster. If you get 5 or 6 guys to the majors in baseball that's a very, very good draft and if a pick gets to the majors in 2 years that's absolutely flying through the system.

I think the 5-year plan also really skewed thoughts as well and made people believe that you should be able to turn a franchise around in 5 years. Now, there are definitely times that you can, but not with the system that this front office inherited in 2007 or the major league team they took over.

There are definitely people who question the execution of their plan, but unless you're expecting them to win almost every trade, hit on a disproportionate amount of draft picks who fly through the system, and get themselves into situations where they have bad contracts to aging veterans blocking young assets, they have quite literally gone by the book in terms of setting up the franchise to succeed over a very defined window. I left the scout.com site for much of the same reason you guys left the official site MB.

Here's an article that was actually posted earlier today about the system and how dire the situation was when they took over and why it's finally starting to get publicity. Awesome read, it was one of the better pieces I've read recently in terms of breaking things down economically (beyond "by golly, the Pirates can spend like Milwaukee in later years!") and in terms of the time it takes for guys to develop, break out, and gain recognition.

http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/06/first-pitch-why-does-the-pirates-farm-system-seem-different-this-year.html


I don't think it really is about the football mentality of the city. The franchise has failed on an all-time historically terrible level. That's why everyone looks at everything they do with a skeptical eye. I think we're on the right path but there should be no ambiguity about why people question every move this team makes. It's really simple.


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 Post subject: Re: June 26, 2013 Pirates (47-30) at Mariners (34-44)
PostPosted: Thu Jun 27, 2013 11:40 pm 
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I think that's part of the problem though. People chalk up the Steelers' success to "oh it's the Steelers". Not "oh, it's Kevin Colbert".

You can't act like it's the team itself making decisions and that it's some linear, unchanging entity. You have to take each different regime as a new start. The Pirates franchise itself has nothing to do with successes or failures. It's all about the people behind it.

People say "it's been 20 years, why should we trust them?" when most of the people currently here have nothing to do with most of those 20 years.

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 Post subject: Re: June 26, 2013 Pirates (47-30) at Mariners (34-44)
PostPosted: Thu Jun 27, 2013 11:51 pm 
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I wouldn't say that's true. A lot of people were anxious of Dan handing over the reigns. Colbert has been there since 2000, first as the Director of Football Operations and then GM (which was more or less a job title change). There's definitely truth to the Steelers' FO not having many temporary parts over the years.


Last edited by RTJR on Thu Jun 27, 2013 11:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: June 26, 2013 Pirates (47-30) at Mariners (34-44)
PostPosted: Thu Jun 27, 2013 11:54 pm 
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StarlingArcher wrote:
I think that's part of the problem though. People chalk up the Steelers' success to "oh it's the Steelers". Not "oh, it's Kevin Colbert".

You can't act like it's the team itself making decisions and that it's some linear, unchanging entity. You have to take each different regime as a new start. The Pirates franchise itself has nothing to do with successes or failures. It's all about the people behind it.

People say "it's been 20 years, why should we trust them?" when most of the people currently here have nothing to do with most of those 20 years.


Kevin Colbert has taken a ton of heat lately for their lack of draft success. His overall record is good so he keeps going but make no mistake he has gotten criticized for his missteps. It isn't hard to understand that a historically inept team like the Bucs is going to get a microscope put on them until they prove otherwise. Who cares whose fault it is? When you take a front office position you fully understand that you're going to pay the price for sins of your predecessors. All part of that incredible compensation package that you get.


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 Post subject: Re: June 26, 2013 Pirates (47-30) at Mariners (34-44)
PostPosted: Fri Jun 28, 2013 12:17 am 
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That could be, I've been away from Pittsburgh for a few years but when I'd left there was a clear "the Pirates need to be run like the Steelers" mentality. This was before the Ziggy Hood/Cam Heyward drafts though. Was actually a bit after the Arizona Super Bowl win.

Just think it's tough to put an entire organization under a microscope when the main components of said organization are completely different. They're independent from each other and can't really be lumped together.

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 Post subject: Re: June 26, 2013 Pirates (47-30) at Mariners (34-44)
PostPosted: Fri Jun 28, 2013 6:23 am 
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StarlingArcher wrote:
That could be, I've been away from Pittsburgh for a few years but when I'd left there was a clear "the Pirates need to be run like the Steelers" mentality. This was before the Ziggy Hood/Cam Heyward drafts though. Was actually a bit after the Arizona Super Bowl win.

Just think it's tough to put an entire organization under a microscope when the main components of said organization are completely different. They're independent from each other and can't really be lumped together.



I agree wholeheartedly with your post above that suggests that most people have no clue how the MLB draft works. Mike Trout was more of a Tom Brady pick than a Calvin Johnson, and he went in the first round.

BUT, I have to say, if you look back on the Ziggy Hood draft and almost all of the players that went in the second round after him....there was almost nobody that turned out to be decent available. Unless you think they should have taken Ray Rice, but...so should about 25 other teams that picked before 2.58 in that draft.

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