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 Post subject: How 'bout Giancarlo Stanton??
PostPosted: Tue Jun 25, 2013 4:46 pm 
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Could we put together a package that would entice the Marlins?

What would you trade to get him? Would you send them Taillon? I would.

Thoughts?

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 Post subject: Re: How 'bout Giancarlo Stanton??
PostPosted: Tue Jun 25, 2013 4:50 pm 
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Its gonna take a shitload and the Marlins are setting it up nicely by saying Stanton is off the market. Oh they'll trade him, what ya got? Whoever gets Stanton is going to have their system raped. Pants on the ground style.


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 Post subject: Re: How 'bout Giancarlo Stanton??
PostPosted: Tue Jun 25, 2013 5:06 pm 
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UPPMB - ESPN: Pirates need to trade for Stanton


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 Post subject: Re: How 'bout Giancarlo Stanton??
PostPosted: Tue Jun 25, 2013 5:11 pm 
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Animal wrote:
Could we put together a package that would entice the Marlins?

What would you trade to get him? Would you send them Taillon? I would.

Thoughts?


There was a lengthy discussion on this a few days ago that, to save you the pages of dialogue, pretty much came down to nobody would really want to trade for him, but I'd do it in a heartbeat.

It was a pretty large majority in favor of standing pat, though.

I think the proposed package, which was really just an example of player values it would take to get it done, was Taillon, Polanco, Tony Sanchez, and another throw-in pitcher but nobody major. Hefty package to be sure, and Taillon/Polanco is probably pretty set as what it'd take at the top unless they absolutely love somebody else we don't know about. Sanchez could probably be negotiated though.

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 Post subject: Re: How 'bout Giancarlo Stanton??
PostPosted: Tue Jun 25, 2013 5:50 pm 
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Animal wrote:
Could we put together a package that would entice the Marlins?

What would you trade to get him? Would you send them Taillon? I would.

Thoughts?


Are you serious? Do you know how many times this has been addressed already?


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 Post subject: Re: How 'bout Giancarlo Stanton??
PostPosted: Tue Jun 25, 2013 5:57 pm 
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I addressed this in my "Off-Day Musings, Part II" thread:

viewtopic.php?f=1&t=11168

* I purposely avoided the whole "maybe the Pirates should trade for Giancarlo Stanton" thread on purpose, but I'll make one comment here. Stanton is 23 years old and on track to be not just a perennial All-Star and generational power hitter, but a Hall of Famer. In an outfield of Marte-Cutch-Stanton, he'd be the youngest player. If the Pirates could trade for him and sign him to an extension capturing up to and including his age 29 season, they'd be improving the big-league product through that time period. I'm not saying the PBC should make the trade. I understand all of the potential downsides to it (injury concerns, trading away a potential ace pitcher, Polanco's upside, etc.). I'm just saying that it would be a bold, all-in type of move designed to win a championship soon. And, of course, Pittsburgh Penguins GM Ray Shero made those types of moves this year and the Penguins got swept by the Boston Bruins in the Eastern Conference Finals. No guarantees in life or sports, folks.


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 Post subject: Re: How 'bout Giancarlo Stanton??
PostPosted: Tue Jun 25, 2013 6:00 pm 
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Sorry...have not had a whole lot of time to check out the board, and totally missed this discussion.

But I would give up Taillon for Stanton yesterday!

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 Post subject: Re: How 'bout Giancarlo Stanton??
PostPosted: Tue Jun 25, 2013 7:12 pm 
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Animal wrote:
Sorry...have not had a whole lot of time to check out the board, and totally missed this discussion.

But I would give up Taillon for Stanton yesterday!


If the trade was merely Taillon for Stanton, yeah do that six months ago.

Once you start tossing in GP, TS and a fourth piece... yeah, no.

Until someone does a dollars-per-win and WAR comparison analysis on the potential 'mega deal', all this talk is speculative.

'Going all in' or 'making a splash' in a trade doesn't get you championships or prolong your window.

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 Post subject: Re: How 'bout Giancarlo Stanton??
PostPosted: Tue Jun 25, 2013 7:20 pm 
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NSMaster56 wrote:
Animal wrote:
Sorry...have not had a whole lot of time to check out the board, and totally missed this discussion.

But I would give up Taillon for Stanton yesterday!


If the trade was merely Taillon for Stanton, yeah do that six months ago.

Once you start tossing in GP, TS and a fourth piece... yeah, no.

Until someone does a dollars-per-win and WAR comparison analysis on the potential 'mega deal', all this talk is speculative.

'Going all in' or 'making a splash' in a trade doesn't get you championships or prolong your window.


Tim Williams did it. It's based on a lot of assumptions, such as all of the prospects reaching their potential, Stanton only playing 120 games a year, the Pirates extending him, and not building on his 2012 season but it was all in the name of conservativism.

It's a relatively static formula, with 1 WAR worth about 3.3M in the open market and certain prospects assigned dollar values based on the typical bust rate at whatnot, so Schoenfield did pretty well with getting the pieces right and the deal is essentially a wash in terms wins for dollar value.

I just think going Stanton is less risky because he's already an All-Star caliber player, he's 23, and assuming that 4 prospects will all reach their ceiling is risky.

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 Post subject: Re: How 'bout Giancarlo Stanton??
PostPosted: Tue Jun 25, 2013 7:43 pm 
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StarlingArcher wrote:
NSMaster56 wrote:
Until someone does a dollars-per-win and WAR comparison analysis on the potential 'mega deal', all this talk is speculative.

'Going all in' or 'making a splash' in a trade doesn't get you championships or prolong your window.


Tim Williams did it. It's based on a lot of assumptions, such as all of the prospects reaching their potential, Stanton only playing 120 games a year, the Pirates extending him, and not building on his 2012 season but it was all in the name of conservativism.

It's a relatively static formula, with 1 WAR worth about 3.3M in the open market and certain prospects assigned dollar values based on the typical bust rate at whatnot, so Schoenfield did pretty well with getting the pieces right and the deal is essentially a wash in terms wins for dollar value.

I just think going Stanton is less risky because he's already an All-Star caliber player, he's 23, and assuming that 4 prospects will all reach their ceiling is risky.


Which link was that?

So Williams came to the conclusion that Taillon+GP+TS+Prospect X (assuming it's not Hansen?) is worth <= Stanton WAR (both season-by-season and/or over the duration of their respective deals)?

And what was the cost-analysis?

Six years of cheap control (four pre-arb) of Taillon/GP/TS seems like a waaaaaaaaay better investment for [a 'small market' team like] the Bucs. Especially if Stanton is only kept until the end of his arb years.

When you factor in that all three of those kids figure to replace aging/pricey vets and/or play tough-to-fill positions it really seems like the Bucs would be overpaying for a position they could fill internally for MUCH cheaper (while still maintaining similar production).

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 Post subject: Re: How 'bout Giancarlo Stanton??
PostPosted: Tue Jun 25, 2013 8:11 pm 
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NSMaster56 wrote:
Which link was that?

So Williams came to the conclusion that Taillon+GP+TS+Prospect X (assuming it's not Hansen?) is worth <= Stanton WAR (both season-by-season and/or over the duration of their respective deals)?

And what was the cost-analysis?

Six years of cheap control (four pre-arb) of Taillon/GP/TS seems like a waaaaaaaaay better investment for [a 'small market' team like] the Bucs. Especially if Stanton is only kept until the end of his arb years.

When you factor in that all three of those kids figure to replace aging/pricey vets and/or play tough-to-fill positions it really seems like the Bucs would be overpaying for a position they could fill internally for MUCH cheaper (while still maintaining similar production).


http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/06/polanco-taillon-could-get-giancarlo-stanton-why-the-pirates-should-do-it.html

Long link with a lot of clicking to see where the numbers come from, but a good read. And again, it's based on the fact that the Pirates should have more than enough open cap room to extend Stanton quickly if they so choose.

The main reason it's a wash is because Stanton is a) really, really, really, really, really good and b) really, really, really, really, really good. You're talking about a guy who they're conservatively projecting to be worth 30 million a year if he hits free agency, so even paying him more over the next 5-6 years than you would the 4 prospects yields relatively equal value because he's projected to be that much better.

Once the Pirates hit their window, the small market thing goes out the window. They need to keep payroll low when they're building because you can't risk getting yourself into bad contracts or unmovable guys. You need to try out as many young, controllable players as possible to build a capable base and then when you hit your window you fill in those holes with free agent signings and trades. They shouldn't get up to $100M, that's ridiculous, but no reason to not approach what Milwaukee did in their big years.

If the Pirates get and extend Stanton, they'd have Cutch and Stanton on the books, a bunch of league minimum guys and guys they go to arbitration with, and still money left to get free agent guys. Then, they flip the non-extended guys or get draft picks for them, promote the next wave of players, and still have Cutch and Stanton as their cornerstones.

It'd be a lot easier for the Pirates to get guys on the open market with WARs projected to be Polanco/Taillon level than to get a guy like Stanton. Stanton plus Sanchez fill-in plus Taillon fill-in puts you in a great position because of the extra value Stanton provides.

Edit: Also, no, the WAR isn't equal, Stanton is worth more....but the dollar value per WAR is equal because the prospects are cheaper and Stanton is more expensive....but he compensates with more of what you're paying for.

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 Post subject: Re: How 'bout Giancarlo Stanton??
PostPosted: Tue Jun 25, 2013 8:55 pm 
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StarlingArcher wrote:
It'd be a lot easier for the Pirates to get guys on the open market with WARs projected to be Polanco/Taillon level than to get a guy like Stanton. Stanton plus Sanchez fill-in plus Taillon fill-in puts you in a great position because of the extra value Stanton provides.


See, this is where perhaps some people are underestimating the value of 'replacement' players and/or over estimating the Pirates ability to acquire them.

Now, this is 'cherry picking', but considering age and ceilings of GP/Taillon/TS, here are...

Two RFss and two CFs with ~2.5 WAR in 2012:
Yoenis Cespedes
Norichika Aoki
Carlos Gomez
Dexter Fowler

Two SP's with ~2.5 WAR in 2012 (and who have maintained similar production in their careers):
James Shields
Trevor Cahill

C with ~1.0 WAR in 2012 (and who have maintained similar production in their careers):
Chris Ianetta

We all believe that Taillon/GP/TS have that, or better, kind of potential. The Marlins obviously would, too if they conisidered acquiring them for Stanton.

And considering the youth of the three key players in this hypothetical trade, it stands to reason that they would, like Gomez/Fowler (and others), improve upon that 2.5 WAR/season AVG. That is, they could range from 1.5-5 WAR themselves (as Shields, Cahill and others have).

Would you trade a Shields-like SP, a Aoki-like RF and an Ianetta-like C (plus a fourth 'throw in' prosect, even of Oliver's mold) for Stanton?

Isn't that what the Royals did to land Shields? And wasn't that trade 'questionable'?

So it's easy to say, 'the Bucs could pick up FA X to get 1.5+ WAR production', but how many of those players are readily available in any given year, how many sign cost-effective deals and/or how many do the Bucs have a legitimate shot of landing?

Now yes, I'm giving favorable projections for each of those three prospects and it's far from certain that any/all will pan out. However, if you're looking at the trade from the Marlins end you're certainly looking at it in those regards: Landing three cheap players with 2+WAR/year potential. And, just using the Erik Bedard trade for comparison due to the # of prospects involved, it only takes one of the four traded Pirates prospects turning into an Adam Jones to make their end of the deal 'a wash' (or worse).

If the Pirates had a history (or the proven ability) to land solid FA's in the 'guaranteed' 1+ to 3 WAR range (and if more teams weren't locking up younger players to extensions) it'd be easier to assume that the Pirates could replace what they trade away with ease.

Realistically, simply assuming that such young production---young being the key---will be 'readily available' (or 'replaceable') seems like a stretch.

Or, if the Bucs CAN replace the hypothetical production of Taillon and co. from within so easily and they CAN develop their own productive players, why give up players who you assume you CAN develop to trade for Stanton?

From a 'homer perspective', it seems that the Pirates can have both quantity and quality.

That's the pessimist/anti-Stanton POV anyways.

StarlingArcher wrote:
Edit: Also, no, the WAR isn't equal, Stanton is worth more....but the dollar value per WAR is equal because the prospects are cheaper and Stanton is more expensive....but he compensates with more of what you're paying for.


Hmm.

Thanks for the link. Must have overlooked it in the other thread.

That breakdown by Victor Wang is fascinating. One could spend a good deal of time on that alone.

The article makes a compelling case and certainly swayed me a little.

If they Bucs could follow the suggested deal, only swap out TS for another 'C-level' prospect, I'd be more in favor.

Kingham and others may very well replace Taillon and Bell and others may very well replace GP. However, the Pirates also giving up their catcher of the future seems like too steep a price to pay. Even for an elite player like Stanton.

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 Post subject: Re: How 'bout Giancarlo Stanton??
PostPosted: Tue Jun 25, 2013 10:54 pm 
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Yeah I think it's just a risk vs. reward thing and how you assess it.

I'm a bit more conservative and see a guy like Stanton, who has two 30 HR seasons under his belt already and is only 2 years older than Taillon and Polanco, and want the guarantee. But, maybe he blows out a knee, rips a hamstring, or something else happens.

So he has the injury risk and the lack of extension risk, and the prospects have the risk of never fulfilling the potential or taking a while to fulfill the potential and racking up all their surplus value by posting .5 WAR seasons while making league minimum. It's 6 of one, half dozen of the other....I just like the fact that Stanton is still prospect age and has proven he can do it at the MLB level. Seems safer, but that's just my perspective.

I said in another thread, not sure if you saw it, but if Stanton isn't this young, this talented, and this potentially cheap (if they extend him) I don't touch it. I'm usually all for hoarding prospects but he's one of the rare cases I'd go all out for and I don't think the Pirates should consider dealing their prospects for anybody this year who isn't named Stanton, Harper, Trout, or Profar. And like I said, I don't think they're going to drastically set this franchise back either way with whatever they may choose to do with Stanton.

I also wouldn't necessarily rule the Pirates out of getting solid free agents....I just don't think that's been their MO yet. Right now, the vast majority of their FA contracts have been 1-2 year contracts. And that's fine, they're trying to just patch up spots and time their window, but not optimal for getting the 2.0 WAR players who are in or near their prime that they'd need.

Obviously we'll see in the future how they do. But I think if they have a competitive team and are offering a 4-5 year type of deal to a player, they'd be in a better position to get him than they currently are. But that's more speculation than anything else because they haven't had that opportunity.

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 Post subject: Re: How 'bout Giancarlo Stanton??
PostPosted: Wed Jun 26, 2013 11:06 am 
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Animal wrote:
Sorry...have not had a whole lot of time to check out the board, and totally missed this discussion.

But I would give up Taillon for Stanton yesterday!


My apologies, obviously people had a lot more to say about this subject so why not another post.


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 Post subject: Re: How 'bout Giancarlo Stanton??
PostPosted: Wed Jun 26, 2013 11:28 am 
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I'm with No. 9. I want to make sure he doesn't pop up on any HGH lists coming out.

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: How 'bout Giancarlo Stanton??
PostPosted: Wed Jun 26, 2013 11:44 am 
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Another possibility...

Trevor Plouffe. The guy can play 3B, RF, LF, and SS (in a pinch). Here are his 2013 splits against LHP, followed by his career splits:

2013: .417/.462/.611
Career: .288/.352/.531

Yowza. He'd make an ideal platoon guy in both RF and 3B (for when Pedro cools down), and a solid bench piece.


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 Post subject: Re: How 'bout Giancarlo Stanton??
PostPosted: Wed Jun 26, 2013 1:22 pm 
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Quick note: Buster Olney had the Marlins' beat writer on his Baseball Tonight podcast and asked him the Marlins were likely to trade Stanton before the deadline this season. The beat writer said it was unlikely, but possible. He said the only guy the Marlins' front office appears to label untouchable is rookie pitcher Jose Fernandez. Olney and the writer came to the conclusion that Stanton is more likely to be traded at the winter meetings after this season, and Olney thinks the Texas Rangers may grab him.


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 Post subject: Re: How 'bout Giancarlo Stanton??
PostPosted: Wed Jun 26, 2013 2:49 pm 
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J_C_Steel wrote:
Another possibility...

Trevor Plouffe.

Met him, played "over the line" tournament against his team. Went to the same high school as son, and their baseball coach has for years run this over-the-line tournament (3 players per team) as a fundraiser.

Plouffe was a very gracious guy. He was having a good time.


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