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 Post subject: Pedro Alvarez
PostPosted: Sun Apr 07, 2013 7:13 pm 
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Forgot how much fun it is to watch him walk to the plate, take strikes, swing at balls and then walk back to the bench. He has no clue right now. None. Nada. Zip. Absolutely brutal.

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 Post subject: Re: Pedro Alvarez
PostPosted: Sun Apr 07, 2013 7:32 pm 
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agree on pedro. i think last year i offended the pedro lovers on this board. He's not all the hype.


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 Post subject: Re: Pedro Alvarez
PostPosted: Sun Apr 07, 2013 7:39 pm 
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Obviously his problem is pitch recognition. Way late on fastballs, most of the time he wont pull the trigger probably because he can't. The pitches he thinks he can get out in front of he swings at but doesn't realize their offspeed till the last second thus he can't lay off.

I think if I recall correctly these were the issues he had at the development level.


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 Post subject: Re: Pedro Alvarez
PostPosted: Sun Apr 07, 2013 11:41 pm 
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But it's early.

He's young.

He still hit 30 HRs last season.

Every power hitter strikes out a ton.

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 Post subject: Re: Pedro Alvarez
PostPosted: Sun Apr 07, 2013 11:56 pm 
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Every time I think we should cut and run on Pedro, one name comes to mind, Jose Bautista. Although he never looked so lost as Pedro at the plate.


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 Post subject: Re: Pedro Alvarez
PostPosted: Mon Apr 08, 2013 4:46 am 
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beerhunter wrote:
Every time I think we should cut and run on Pedro, one name comes to mind, Jose Bautista. Although he never looked so lost as Pedro at the plate.

Welcome to the boards! Hope you'll stick around...


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 Post subject: Re: Pedro Alvarez
PostPosted: Mon Apr 08, 2013 8:56 am 
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Thank you, glad to be here with other Pirate fans. I've been a lurker for quite awhile, figured it was time to actually contribute.


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 Post subject: Re: Pedro Alvarez
PostPosted: Mon Apr 08, 2013 9:54 am 
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beerhunter wrote:
Every time I think we should cut and run on Pedro, one name comes to mind, Jose Bautista. Although he never looked so lost as Pedro at the plate.


Yeah but for as "lost" as he looks, when he's hitting he doesn't look that way at all. So it's not like he's some hopeless failed prospect or something, he CAN hit. He's just horribly inconsistent. It's 5 games with a .950 OPS or it's 5 games of hitting .083 with 12 K's. It seems like the start to his seasons always has to be this way.

I still think he's going to have his true breakout season(s) either this year, or within the next two.


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 Post subject: Re: Pedro Alvarez
PostPosted: Mon Apr 08, 2013 10:20 am 
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Clevelandsux wrote:
agree on pedro. i think last year i offended the pedro lovers on this board. He's not all the hype.


You also said that Tabata has no patience because he got up 3-0 and then took two strikes, so who knows what you are talking about.

Is anyone here arguing that Alvarez is going to justify his early hype and become a perennial all-star? Anyone?

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 Post subject: Re: Pedro Alvarez
PostPosted: Mon Apr 08, 2013 10:21 am 
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beerhunter wrote:
Every time I think we should cut and run on Pedro, one name comes to mind, Jose Bautista. Although he never looked so lost as Pedro at the plate.



I don't see that happening. If he turns into a middling player, I think he'll be a middling player here through his age 30 season.

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 Post subject: Re: Pedro Alvarez
PostPosted: Mon Apr 08, 2013 1:14 pm 
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He was a bit better than "middling" last season, his first legit MLB season. And he has Bautista kind of power. He'll probably never turn into that, but if he can be a Ryan Howard type then I'm sure we'll all be happy with him. The guy most definitely has the power and skills to hit 50 HR's in a season, it's just a matter of him putting it together.


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 Post subject: Re: Pedro Alvarez
PostPosted: Mon Apr 08, 2013 1:35 pm 
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He needs to recognize the pitch earlier out of the hand. When he starts doing that he'll be on base a lot more due to base on balls. Pitchers respect his power. He'll also be able to lay off down and away. Drive the ball where its pitched. He has more power to opposite field as anyone who's ever played the game and he doesn't utilize it.

Does this reply make sense to anyone or am I just ignorant?


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 Post subject: Re: Pedro Alvarez
PostPosted: Mon Apr 08, 2013 1:35 pm 
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Leway512 wrote:
He was a bit better than "middling" last season, his first legit MLB season. And he has Bautista kind of power. He'll probably never turn into that, but if he can be a Ryan Howard type then I'm sure we'll all be happy with him. The guy most definitely has the power and skills to hit 50 HR's in a season, it's just a matter of him putting it together.



I'm with you on that, and middling was maybe a poor choice of words, but I think my point stands that if he never reaches his potential, he'll be never reaching it here for the Buccos until he's 30.

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 Post subject: Re: Pedro Alvarez
PostPosted: Mon Apr 08, 2013 1:36 pm 
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Leway512 wrote:
He was a bit better than "middling" last season, his first legit MLB season. And he has Bautista kind of power. He'll probably never turn into that, but if he can be a Ryan Howard type then I'm sure we'll all be happy with him. The guy most definitely has the power and skills to hit 50 HR's in a season, it's just a matter of him putting it together.


In BP he hit one completely out of Dodger stadium this weekend. No one doubts the power, but Brad Eldred had that power too. Contact rate has to increase and his K rate must drop some. 45.5% K's right now with 0 BB, that is a terrible 6 games.

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 Post subject: Re: Pedro Alvarez
PostPosted: Mon Apr 08, 2013 1:37 pm 
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buccosfan77 wrote:
He needs to recognize the pitch earlier out of the hand. When he starts doing that he'll be on base a lot more due to base on balls. Pitchers respect his power. He'll also be able to lay off down and away. Drive the ball where its pitched. He has more power to opposite field as anyone who's ever played the game and he doesn't utilize it.

Does this reply make sense to anyone or am I just ignorant?



Maybe, I'm not a baseball expert or anything like some guys here - more of just an interested fan at this point. But yeah, those sliders made him look foolish yesterday. In the first series against the Cubs, he was fouling pitches off and just missing breaking balls and having generally good-looking at-bats, but yesterday and Saturday were just awful displays.

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 Post subject: Re: Pedro Alvarez
PostPosted: Mon Apr 08, 2013 1:43 pm 
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Leway512 wrote:
The guy most definitely has the power and skills to hit 50 HR's in a season, it's just a matter of him putting it together.


"Power" (or strength) to hit 50 HRs in a season? I wholeheartedly agree.

"Skills" to hit 50 HRs in a season? I'm really dubious at this point. The guy has some holes in his swing that MLB pitching has done a good job of exploiting. He's been described as having a relatively long swing and, for that reason, it is my opinion that he will never have a good eye at the plate. He may have to rely upon guesswork (and it may be a very "educated" guess based upon a particular pitcher's strengths and tendencies) in particular situations and hope that his guess is right. When he guesses right, he can crush it. If he's wrong, he's awful. That doesn't bode particularly well for consistent production.

At this particular juncture, I'd rather see Josh Harrison at the plate against a lefty than Pedro. I write that with no joy or viciousness. Nothing would make me happier than to see Pedro tearing up the league. I'm just not seeing it. Can't recall another player that can look so "on" at times and then go stretches where he looks like a Pony League player playing against professionals. It has to be killing him on the inside.

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 Post subject: Re: Pedro Alvarez
PostPosted: Mon Apr 08, 2013 1:53 pm 
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Barrys Dopers wrote:
Leway512 wrote:
He was a bit better than "middling" last season, his first legit MLB season. And he has Bautista kind of power. He'll probably never turn into that, but if he can be a Ryan Howard type then I'm sure we'll all be happy with him. The guy most definitely has the power and skills to hit 50 HR's in a season, it's just a matter of him putting it together.


In BP he hit one completely out of Dodger stadium this weekend. No one doubts the power, but Brad Eldred had that power too. Contact rate has to increase and his K rate must drop some. 45.5% K's right now with 0 BB, that is a terrible 6 games.


Yeah, but what gives me hope is that the Brad Eldred's of the world would have never hit 30 HR's in their first full MLB season, or ever. Pedro did. When he's locked in, he looks so good, all of the complaints about his pitch recognition, taking pitches, etc, they all go away and he just kills the ball. When you watch him during his hot streaks, it's so hard to believe he's the same guy you mentioned with the 45.5% K's with 0 BB's.

It's what makes him such a frustrating player to watch.

Quote:
"Skills" to hit 50 HRs in a season? I'm really dubious at this point. The guy has some holes in his swing that MLB pitching has done a good job of exploiting. He's been described as having a relatively long swing and, for that reason, it is my opinion that he will never have a good eye at the plate. He may have to rely upon guesswork (and it may be a very "educated" guess based upon a particular pitcher's strengths and tendencies) in particular situations and hope that his guess is right. When he guesses right, he can crush it. If he's wrong, he's awful. That doesn't bode particularly well for consistent production.


He's hit off of some very good pitchers. People make excuses against him whenever he is hitting the ball like "He just hits mistakes, he can't catch up to fastballs, he can't hit outside pitches, he can't go the other way, he was just beating up AAAA pitchers in September, etc.." yet he disproved a lot of that last season. So that's why I said he has the skills, because I absolutely believe he does. When it comes to power hitters, or any hitter really, there's going to be a lot of guess work going on. Power hitters just struggle to react the way the smaller guys do.


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 Post subject: Re: Pedro Alvarez
PostPosted: Mon Apr 08, 2013 4:03 pm 
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To get Pedro out, all you have to do is throw breaking balls down and away off the plate. He does not have the pitch recognition to lay off.... :roll: :roll: :roll:


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 Post subject: Re: Pedro Alvarez
PostPosted: Mon Apr 08, 2013 4:04 pm 
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Leway512 wrote:
When it comes to power hitters, or any hitter really, there's going to be a lot of guess work going on. Power hitters just struggle to react the way the smaller guys do.


Hitters with compact, fast swings have more time to read and react to pitches. Alvarez doesn't have that luxury. Consequently, although hitters always "guess" based upon scouting and tendencies, some hitters are relegated to guessing more because of that limitation. My personal theory - mind you, I haven't done a full blown statistical analysis - on why it appears that Alvarez takes a lot of first pitches is because he is hoping for a Ball One count. Like most hitters, he will be better when the count is in his favor. My thought is that he will be markedly better simply because he'll do more damage when he can better predict what's coming his way and why he is so damn awful when he is either 0-2 or 1-2 in the count. Slider down and in . . . he's done. He needs to start that swing before being able to recognize whether its a slider or a fastball.

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 Post subject: Re: Pedro Alvarez
PostPosted: Mon Apr 08, 2013 5:21 pm 
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No. 9 wrote:
Leway512 wrote:
When it comes to power hitters, or any hitter really, there's going to be a lot of guess work going on. Power hitters just struggle to react the way the smaller guys do.


Hitters with compact, fast swings have more time to read and react to pitches. Alvarez doesn't have that luxury. Consequently, although hitters always "guess" based upon scouting and tendencies, some hitters are relegated to guessing more because of that limitation. My personal theory - mind you, I haven't done a full blown statistical analysis - on why it appears that Alvarez takes a lot of first pitches is because he is hoping for a Ball One count. Like most hitters, he will be better when the count is in his favor. My thought is that he will be markedly better simply because he'll do more damage when he can better predict what's coming his way and why he is so damn awful when he is either 0-2 or 1-2 in the count. Slider down and in . . . he's done. He needs to start that swing before being able to recognize whether its a slider or a fastball.


I think his major problem is not catching up to even average fastballs when he is in these funks. You'll see guys get 89mph right past him. Even if he's guessing, just guess fastball and crush it, but he tends to get smoked way too much on the straight stuff.

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