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 Post subject: Great DIPS theory talk
PostPosted: Thu Mar 14, 2013 12:53 pm 
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The core of sabermetric analysis of pitchers from year to year is the concept that pitchers have little control over what happens when the ball is hit once you take away home runs. This is how stats like FIP were created and shown to be far more predictive of future ERA than current ERA itself. Like any theory, there are problems that don't make the numbers invalid, but create outliers like Jered Weaver and Matt Cain who always perform better than expected or guys like Ricky Nolasco who do worse.

This talk was given at the Sloan Analytics convention and found two very interesting things that may improve our ability to project pitcher performance. One is that pitchers appear to have control over inducing popups. A popup is essentially a strike out because its almost always an out and runners don't advance. The second thing is that some pitchers can consistently get batters to miss pitches in the strike zone more often than other pitchers. Thus, more of the batted balls against them are outside of the zone and thus harder to hit. The author incorporates these two concepts into current DIPS theory and dramatically improves projection accuracy.

Its an interesting talk in transcript form for those into this stuff.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.ph ... -they-are/

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 Post subject: Re: Great DIPS theory talk
PostPosted: Thu Mar 14, 2013 2:56 pm 
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Joined: Thu Feb 23, 2012 1:30 pm
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Location: Naples, FL
Just clicked over to this blog after I finished reading that.

I've been looking at this stuff to formulate a fantasy strategy over the last week or so. I'm glad JC_Steel got me into it because it's much more enjoyable than fantasy football (which I still enjoy a great deal).

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