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 Post subject: Re: Felix Hernandez
PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2013 8:51 pm 
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Barrys Dopers wrote:
sisyphus wrote:
Barrys Dopers wrote:
There are not a "whole lot" of King Felix. He was pitching in the majors at age 19 with a 2.67 era, that's Doc Gooden and virtually no one else in the last 30 years.

Note the eventual fate of Gooden's right elbow.

That said, Felix's arm didn't take the early abuse that Gooden's did. Maybe he'll stay healthy.


Gooden regressed before the arm injury, his K rate plummeted immediately to the 7.50 range where we has merely a very good pitcher for 10 years. I think the nostrils were a bigger issue for him. Point taken, any pitcher is healthy until they are not.

I"ve seen a lot of pitchers start to falter before an injury crops up. I have a theory that they are injured for quite some time before the pain becomes too severe to keep pitching. Just a theory, mind you. I don't have any kind of evidence to back it up apart from observation over a lot of seasons.

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 Post subject: Re: Felix Hernandez
PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2013 8:55 pm 
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NSMaster56 wrote:
Lots of good points and questions.

First things first: isn't the obvious King Felix comparison Fernando Valenzuela?

Secondly and more 'intangibly', the M's HAD to sign Felix. Much like the post-Bonds Bucs, M's fans have been alienated and betrayed since the Randy trade. Seriously, many fans are at their wits end with the M's. Granted, the M's had a fair option on Felix the next two years ($40 M, ~$20 M/season), but it was likely he would want out if they didn't lock him up ASAP (as he could command more $ from LA/NY/etc. and/or they could offer a better 'winning atmosphere'). Considering their recent FA/trade misses (Hamilton & Upton), this at least sends a message to fans and players alike: we're serious about changing... we WILL do what it takes to win.

Lastly and also 'intangibly', while there is certain risk when signing a player even as great as King Felix to a deal of this size one must ask themself: how often does a player of his caliber come along? And, if they don't break down like others have, what's a player of that caliber worth?

Most teams wait 30/40/50 years for a player like Felix to land on their team, so when you get one it's hard to pass up the opportunity to keep them around. If you're going to spend insane amounts of money on one player, it might as well be a phenom like Felix. It's absolutely worth the risk.

The last time the Pirates just "had" to sign a guy, his name was Jason Kendall.

Any time a team starts to think that it just has to sign a guy, they're about to make a big mistake.

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 Post subject: Re: Felix Hernandez
PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2013 8:59 pm 
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Barrys Dopers wrote:
NSMaster56 wrote:
Lots of good points and questions.

First things first: isn't the obvious King Felix comparison Fernando Valenzuela?

Secondly and more 'intangibly', the M's HAD to sign Felix. Much like the post-Bonds Bucs, M's fans have been alienated and betrayed since the Randy trade. Seriously, many fans are at their wits end with the M's. Granted, the M's had a fair option on Felix the next two years ($40 M, ~$20 M/season), but it was likely he would want out if they didn't lock him up ASAP (as he could command more $ from LA/NY/etc. and/or they could offer a better 'winning atmosphere'). Considering their recent FA/trade misses (Hamilton & Upton), this at least sends a message to fans and players alike: we're serious about changing... we WILL do what it takes to win.

Lastly and also 'intangibly', while there is certain risk when signing a player even as great as King Felix to a deal of this size one must ask themself: how often does a player of his caliber come along? And, if they don't break down like others have, what's a player of that caliber worth?

Most teams wait 30/40/50 years for a player like Felix to land on their team, so when you get one it's hard to pass up the opportunity to keep them around. If you're going to spend insane amounts of money on one player, it might as well be a phenom like Felix. It's absolutely worth the risk.


Great comp too NS! They better hope it doesn't prove to be accurate. Fernando was awesome up until age 26 then was never the same. Of course he threw 250+ innings for 6 straight years maxing out at 285.

Fernando racked up a season of 285 innings at age 21, the first of six consecutive seasons in which he exceeded Felix's career high. I haven't seen too many pitchers so abused at an early age as Fernando was.

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 Post subject: Re: Felix Hernandez
PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2013 10:08 pm 
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sisyphus wrote:
The last time the Pirates just "had" to sign a guy, his name was Jason Kendall.

Any time a team starts to think that it just has to sign a guy, they're about to make a big mistake.


Actually, I (and quite a few others) argued just last year that the Pirates "had to" sign Andrew McCutchen to a long-term extension. That certainly wasn't a mistake.


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 Post subject: Re: Felix Hernandez
PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2013 10:39 pm 
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donburgh wrote:
But what are the chances that Felix will put up that kind of WAR?


That's the $25 M question.

So long as he stays healthy it's not unreasonable to believe that a young pitcher approaching his prime with Felix's skills can hit 4-ish+ WAR for the duration of his contract [extension] (into his 30's).

He'll probably have to 'reinvent' his technique(s) as he loses MPH on some of his pitches and/or to prevent injury, but unless his arm does blow out or he get 'Steve Blass disease' he should earn most of that contract.

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 Post subject: Re: Felix Hernandez
PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2013 10:46 pm 
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sisyphus wrote:
The last time the Pirates just "had" to sign a guy, his name was Jason Kendall.

Any time a team starts to think that it just has to sign a guy, they're about to make a big mistake.


Comparing Kendall to Felix is flawed though, for many and obvious reasons.

The M's and Felix situation is more like the Bucs not retaining Bonds.

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 Post subject: Re: Felix Hernandez
PostPosted: Tue Feb 12, 2013 9:26 pm 
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J_C_Steel wrote:
sisyphus wrote:
The last time the Pirates just "had" to sign a guy, his name was Jason Kendall.

Any time a team starts to think that it just has to sign a guy, they're about to make a big mistake.


Actually, I (and quite a few others) argued just last year that the Pirates "had to" sign Andrew McCutchen to a long-term extension. That certainly wasn't a mistake.

I'm speaking more along the lines of teams having to sign guys to placate the fan base. Also, it's senseless to commit big money long term to anyone if the team has little or no chance of contending in that time.

You really don't have to resign anyone at all. You need to either resign a guy or find a way to replace his production.

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