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 Post subject: Upton to Braves
PostPosted: Thu Jan 24, 2013 12:15 pm 
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Waiting for details.

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 Post subject: Re: Upton to Braves
PostPosted: Thu Jan 24, 2013 12:35 pm 
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I heard it is Upton and Chris Johnson to Atlanta...

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 Post subject: Re: Upton to Braves
PostPosted: Thu Jan 24, 2013 12:37 pm 
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Upton and Johnson to ATL for Randall Delgado, Martin Prado, and minor leaguers Ahmed, Spruill, and Drury.


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 Post subject: Re: Upton to Braves
PostPosted: Thu Jan 24, 2013 12:51 pm 
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Not the biggest prospects buff but that doesn't seem like too much.

Much less than what Seattle was offering, right?

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 Post subject: Re: Upton to Braves
PostPosted: Thu Jan 24, 2013 1:02 pm 
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EDIT: Reading up on it, and I didn't even realize that Martin Prado is a pretty good player.

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 Post subject: Re: Upton to Braves
PostPosted: Thu Jan 24, 2013 1:33 pm 
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Yeah not nearly the level prospects Seattle offered. Prado is a very good player, but he has 1 year left before free agency. Towers F'd this whole thing up and minimized Upton's value. They trade a MVP talent at age 26 for 1 year of a solid 3B and backend SP and three C prospects, yikes. I guess he thinks they are contenders this year, but SF and LA will be very tough.

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 Post subject: Re: Upton to Braves
PostPosted: Thu Jan 24, 2013 1:38 pm 
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If I were a d backs fan, I would be enraged. IF I were Martin Prado I would be really pissed. This is a terrible deal for the dbacks....JMHO... 8-) 8-) 8-)


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 Post subject: Re: Upton to Braves
PostPosted: Thu Jan 24, 2013 3:41 pm 
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Hard to believe they went from what Seattle offered to this.


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 Post subject: Re: Upton to Braves
PostPosted: Thu Jan 24, 2013 4:56 pm 
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Upton vetoed the Seattle deal and few teams are/were as desperate as them.

A steal for ATL.

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 Post subject: Re: Upton to Braves
PostPosted: Thu Jan 24, 2013 6:18 pm 
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So Towers has turned Justin Upton, Trevor Bauer, and Chris Young into one year of Prado, Gregorious, Pennington, and Delgado, plus a few spare parts. He even admitted that Kirk Gibson's requests for "gritty" players guided his moves. Not a good offseason in the desert.

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 Post subject: Re: Upton to Braves
PostPosted: Thu Jan 24, 2013 8:15 pm 
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I'm guessing that I'm going to end up all alone way out on the end of a broken limb here, but I really think that Arizona made a good deal. I'm on the record here many, many times pointing out that Upton can't hit outside of Arizona.

I'm going to look like an idiot, though, if the D'Backs don't extend Prado and Delgado doesn't become a useful member of their rotation.

I'm going to look even dumber if Upton starts to hit outside of Arizona. It could happen; he has great ability and is still very young.

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 Post subject: Re: Upton to Braves
PostPosted: Thu Jan 24, 2013 9:42 pm 
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Barrys Dopers wrote:
So Towers has turned Justin Upton, Trevor Bauer, and Chris Young into one year of Prado, Gregorious, Pennington, and Delgado, plus a few spare parts. He even admitted that Kirk Gibson's requests for "gritty" players guided his moves. Not a good offseason in the desert.


He's certainly no Walt Jocketty. :D

sisyphus wrote:
I'm guessing that I'm going to end up all alone way out on the end of a broken limb here, but I really think that Arizona made a good deal. I'm on the record here many, many times pointing out that Upton can't hit outside of Arizona.

I'm going to look like an idiot, though, if the D'Backs don't extend Prado and Delgado doesn't become a useful member of their rotation.

I'm going to look even dumber if Upton starts to hit outside of Arizona. It could happen; he has great ability and is still very young.


Do you think that the humid/hot air in ATL might help keep his numbers up (if the desert air was, in fact, a contributing factor to his stat lines)?

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 Post subject: Re: Upton to Braves
PostPosted: Thu Jan 24, 2013 9:50 pm 
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NSMaster56 wrote:
Barrys Dopers wrote:
So Towers has turned Justin Upton, Trevor Bauer, and Chris Young into one year of Prado, Gregorious, Pennington, and Delgado, plus a few spare parts. He even admitted that Kirk Gibson's requests for "gritty" players guided his moves. Not a good offseason in the desert.


He's certainly no Walt Jocketty. :D

sisyphus wrote:
I'm guessing that I'm going to end up all alone way out on the end of a broken limb here, but I really think that Arizona made a good deal. I'm on the record here many, many times pointing out that Upton can't hit outside of Arizona.

I'm going to look like an idiot, though, if the D'Backs don't extend Prado and Delgado doesn't become a useful member of their rotation.

I'm going to look even dumber if Upton starts to hit outside of Arizona. It could happen; he has great ability and is still very young.


Do you think that the humid/hot air in ATL might help keep his numbers up (if the desert air was, in fact, a contributing factor to his stat lines)?

I don't think the heat will help much. The humidity will be a big factor working against him, and the drop in elevation as well.

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 Post subject: Re: Upton to Braves
PostPosted: Fri Jan 25, 2013 12:01 pm 
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I was on that not hitting outside of Arizona thing as well but somebody linked here to a pretty convincing Fangraphs article that suggested that a lot of his road woes could be due to multiple road series in West Coast ballparks like Petco and Dodger Stadium (a phenomenon that also works against Rockies hitters).

Is there any way to see how he hits on the road outside of the division?

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 Post subject: Re: Upton to Braves
PostPosted: Fri Jan 25, 2013 1:17 pm 
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SUPERCHARGED APE wrote:
I was on that not hitting outside of Arizona thing as well but somebody linked here to a pretty convincing Fangraphs article that suggested that a lot of his road woes could be due to multiple road series in West Coast ballparks like Petco and Dodger Stadium (a phenomenon that also works against Rockies hitters).

Is there any way to see how he hits on the road outside of the division?

Yeah, I saw that article as well. However, his splits are too large to be explained away because 45% of his road games are against division foes, since that includes Colorado. Barely more than 1/3 of his road games are at Petco, San Francisco and Dodger Stadium.

Those stadiums have an effect, but not to the extent that 1/3 of the games would skew the findings so significantly.

Further, the data do not support the claim. Upton has a career OPS of .901 at Petco, which is higher than his career OPS at Coors Field (.787).

Combined for his career, Upton has posted the following against division foes on the road: 157-619, .254 BA, 37 2B's, 3 3B's, 25 HR's, 60 BB's, 154 K's, .254/.321/.444 slugging for a combined road OPS of .765.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/playe ... Career&t=b

That is actually slightly better than his combined career road OPS of .731.

So, no - playing a significant number of games at Petco, Dodger Stadium, AT&T, and Coors Field has not harmed Upton's career road OPS, and the data show actually that those games, combined, have helped his road OPS.

"Unfounded presumptions for $400, Alex."


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 Post subject: Re: Upton to Braves
PostPosted: Fri Jan 25, 2013 1:20 pm 
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SUPERCHARGED APE wrote:
I was on that not hitting outside of Arizona thing as well but somebody linked here to a pretty convincing Fangraphs article that suggested that a lot of his road woes could be due to multiple road series in West Coast ballparks like Petco and Dodger Stadium (a phenomenon that also works against Rockies hitters).

Is there any way to see how he hits on the road outside of the division?

Here's a breakdown of his hitting by ballpark. You are free to do the math that excludes NL-West ballparks, though we may run into small sample size problems at that point.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/playe ... =&t=b#site

I will note, however, that Upton makes most of his hay in good hitters ballparks (CIN, PHI, ATL) while doing comparatively poorly elsewhere. Also, I realize that Petco, Chavez Ravine and AT&T Park are difficult places to hit, but that doesn't justify the very poor showings Upton had in those ballparks. Matt Kemp, Chase Headly, and Buster Posey have figured out how to hit well in those parks; if Upton is as good as advertised, he should be able to do so as well.

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 Post subject: Re: Upton to Braves
PostPosted: Fri Jan 25, 2013 1:57 pm 
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Bucfan wrote:
SUPERCHARGED APE wrote:
I was on that not hitting outside of Arizona thing as well but somebody linked here to a pretty convincing Fangraphs article that suggested that a lot of his road woes could be due to multiple road series in West Coast ballparks like Petco and Dodger Stadium (a phenomenon that also works against Rockies hitters).

Is there any way to see how he hits on the road outside of the division?

Yeah, I saw that article as well. However, his splits are too large to be explained away because 45% of his road games are against division foes, since that includes Colorado. Barely more than 1/3 of his road games are at Petco, San Francisco and Dodger Stadium.

Those stadiums have an effect, but not to the extent that 1/3 of the games would skew the findings so significantly.

Further, the data do not support the claim. Upton has a career OPS of .901 at Petco, which is higher than his career OPS at Coors Field (.787).

Combined for his career, Upton has posted the following against division foes on the road: 157-619, .254 BA, 37 2B's, 3 3B's, 25 HR's, 60 BB's, 154 K's, .254/.321/.444 slugging for a combined road OPS of .765.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/playe ... Career&t=b

That is actually slightly better than his combined career road OPS of .731.

So, no - playing a significant number of games at Petco, Dodger Stadium, AT&T, and Coors Field has not harmed Upton's career road OPS, and the data show actually that those games, combined, have helped his road OPS.

"Unfounded presumptions for $400, Alex."


It is true that you just can't use home/road splits at face value to predict how a player does away from there. It doesn't hold up. Lots of players hit better at home than on the road so you have to adjust for the larger effect first before discounting the splits. There is also a sample size issue for a young player with his individual road splits. It is highly unlikely that Upton will hit like his road splits as a Brave, just like it was unlikely that James Loney would instantly become good away from Dodger Stadium.

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