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 Post subject: For You Math Folk -- ZiPS Projections for the 2013 Bucs
PostPosted: Mon Jan 14, 2013 11:57 am 
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http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.ph ... h-pirates/

Interesting. I hope A.J. Burnett doesn't regress like that, and I'm also hoping that somebody besides Cutch posts a .330+ OBP.


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 Post subject: Re: For You Math Folk -- ZiPS Projections for the 2013 Bucs
PostPosted: Mon Jan 14, 2013 12:24 pm 
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J_C_Steel wrote:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2013-zips-projections-pittsburgh-pirates/

Interesting. I hope A.J. Burnett doesn't regress like that, and I'm also hoping that somebody besides Cutch posts a .330+ OBP.


ZiPS is heavily regressed for all teams. Its more accurate on the whole than trying to guess who will maintain and who will dropoff. That said, check any other team and you will see conservative projections as well. Its actually encouraging that ZiPS has the Bucs with 5 hitters posting more than 2.0 WAR, that would be the first time in a long time for us. Also keep in mind that ZiPS really likes Liriano in our park with a WAR projection around 2.

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 Post subject: Re: For You Math Folk -- ZiPS Projections for the 2013 Bucs
PostPosted: Mon Jan 14, 2013 2:48 pm 
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FYI ZiPS would have Marcum at an ERA+ of 111 as a Pirate. If he's healthy that would be an excellent potential outcome.

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 Post subject: Re: For You Math Folk -- ZiPS Projections for the 2013 Bucs
PostPosted: Mon Jan 14, 2013 4:26 pm 
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Barrys Dopers wrote:
If he's healthy ...

Same is true for Liriano.

But he's not. Neither is Marcum, as far as I am concerned.


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 Post subject: Re: For You Math Folk -- ZiPS Projections for the 2013 Bucs
PostPosted: Mon Jan 14, 2013 4:38 pm 
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Bucfan wrote:
Barrys Dopers wrote:
If he's healthy ...

Same is true for Liriano.

But he's not. Neither is Marcum, as far as I am concerned.


I agree, neither guy is or they would already be signed. The question is which one will be healthy by early March.

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 Post subject: Re: For You Math Folk -- ZiPS Projections for the 2013 Bucs
PostPosted: Mon Jan 14, 2013 4:48 pm 
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Barrys Dopers wrote:
I agree, neither guy is or they would already be signed. The question is which one will be healthy by early March.

Good question. Impossible at this juncture to comment as to Liriano, since we have basically no information as to Liriano's injury.


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 Post subject: Re: For You Math Folk -- ZiPS Projections for the 2013 Bucs
PostPosted: Mon Jan 14, 2013 4:51 pm 
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The pitching projections are pretty awful for the Pirates, though. If they hold, I don't see more than 75 wins.


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 Post subject: Re: For You Math Folk -- ZiPS Projections for the 2013 Bucs
PostPosted: Mon Jan 14, 2013 5:00 pm 
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J_C_Steel wrote:
The pitching projections are pretty awful for the Pirates, though. If they hold, I don't see more than 75 wins.


Yeah, Dan doesn't guess at IP so the Bucs could get lucky with health and do alright or Cole could come up like a house'afire in June. I'd like to see the intervals to see how lucky we would need to get. As is he has us right around 75 wins, I think its fairly easy to see a path to 83 or so without being too starry eyed.

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 Post subject: Re: For You Math Folk -- ZiPS Projections for the 2013 Bucs
PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 10:44 am 
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Weird that they have Alvarez at a .302 BABIP and only a .235 average altogether. Wasn't his BABIP quite low last season?

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 Post subject: Re: For You Math Folk -- ZiPS Projections for the 2013 Bucs
PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 11:32 am 
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SUPERCHARGED APE wrote:
Weird that they have Alvarez at a .302 BABIP and only a .235 average altogether. Wasn't his BABIP quite low last season?


His babip was .308 in 2012, .341 in 2010. I expect Pedro to have a decent babip because when he hits it, he hits it hard. Its the 30% K rate that kills his batting average projection. He really has to get that down to 27% or so to take the next step.

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 Post subject: Re: For You Math Folk -- ZiPS Projections for the 2013 Bucs
PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 11:33 am 
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Barrys Dopers wrote:
SUPERCHARGED APE wrote:
Weird that they have Alvarez at a .302 BABIP and only a .235 average altogether. Wasn't his BABIP quite low last season?


His babip was .308 in 2012, .341 in 2010. I expect Pedro to have a decent babip because when he hits it, he hits it hard. Its the 30% K rate that kills his batting average projection. He really has to get that down to 27% or so to take the next step.



Ok. I didn't know he got it up to .308 last year. That makes sense now.

And yeah, he's pretty much Pedro Cust if he doesn't cut down on the Ks.

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 Post subject: Re: For You Math Folk -- ZiPS Projections for the 2013 Bucs
PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 2:44 pm 
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Barrys Dopers wrote:
SUPERCHARGED APE wrote:
Weird that they have Alvarez at a .302 BABIP and only a .235 average altogether. Wasn't his BABIP quite low last season?


His babip was .308 in 2012, .341 in 2010. I expect Pedro to have a decent babip because when he hits it, he hits it hard. Its the 30% K rate that kills his batting average projection. He really has to get that down to 27% or so to take the next step.

That or increase his walk rate to well over 10%.

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 Post subject: Re: For You Math Folk -- ZiPS Projections for the 2013 Bucs
PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 3:20 pm 
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Willton wrote:
Barrys Dopers wrote:
SUPERCHARGED APE wrote:
Weird that they have Alvarez at a .302 BABIP and only a .235 average altogether. Wasn't his BABIP quite low last season?


His babip was .308 in 2012, .341 in 2010. I expect Pedro to have a decent babip because when he hits it, he hits it hard. Its the 30% K rate that kills his batting average projection. He really has to get that down to 27% or so to take the next step.

That or increase his walk rate to well over 10%.


Pravda.

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 Post subject: Re: For You Math Folk -- ZiPS Projections for the 2013 Bucs
PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 8:02 pm 
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Bucfan wrote:
Barrys Dopers wrote:
I agree, neither guy is or they would already be signed. The question is which one will be healthy by early March.

Good question. Impossible at this juncture to comment as to Liriano, since we have basically no information as to Liriano's injury.

I heard today that he has a broken right arm.

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 Post subject: Re: For You Math Folk -- ZiPS Projections for the 2013 Bucs
PostPosted: Wed Jan 16, 2013 11:04 am 
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sisyphus wrote:
Bucfan wrote:
Barrys Dopers wrote:
I agree, neither guy is or they would already be signed. The question is which one will be healthy by early March.

Good question. Impossible at this juncture to comment as to Liriano, since we have basically no information as to Liriano's injury.

I heard today that he has a broken right arm.



A broken right arm in January (unless it's like, broken like Bo Jackson's hip was or something) doesn't really seem like it would be a big deal to a veteran left-handed pitcher, but then again I don't know that much.

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 Post subject: Re: For You Math Folk -- ZiPS Projections for the 2013 Bucs
PostPosted: Wed Jan 16, 2013 11:36 am 
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If Liriano can throw off of a mound by the end of February, then there's little risk. Hopefully, the Bucs' medical staff can take a look and Liriano can be brought into the fold. At least then the Pirates would have some SP depth:

A.J.
Wandy
J-Mac
Karstens
Liriano
K-McP / Locke
Cole (around July or so)

That's eight starters (three rookies). That could end up being OK.


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 Post subject: Re: For You Math Folk -- ZiPS Projections for the 2013 Bucs
PostPosted: Wed Jan 16, 2013 11:46 am 
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J_C_Steel wrote:
If Liriano can throw off of a mound by the end of February, then there's little risk. Hopefully, the Bucs' medical staff can take a look and Liriano can be brought into the fold. At least then the Pirates would have some SP depth:

A.J.
Wandy
J-Mac
Karstens
Liriano
K-McP / Locke
Cole (around July or so)

That's eight starters (three rookies). That could end up being OK.


Also Zips likes Phil Irwin much more than expected, plus Zach Stewart and Andy Oliver will likely get looks as SP again. The depth sounds good with one of Marcum/Liriano on board.

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 Post subject: Re: For You Math Folk -- ZiPS Projections for the 2013 Bucs
PostPosted: Wed Jan 16, 2013 12:14 pm 
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Barrys Dopers wrote:
J_C_Steel wrote:
If Liriano can throw off of a mound by the end of February, then there's little risk. Hopefully, the Bucs' medical staff can take a look and Liriano can be brought into the fold. At least then the Pirates would have some SP depth:

A.J.
Wandy
J-Mac
Karstens
Liriano
K-McP / Locke
Cole (around July or so)

That's eight starters (three rookies). That could end up being OK.


Also Zips likes Phil Irwin much more than expected, plus Zach Stewart and Andy Oliver will likely get looks as SP again. The depth sounds good with one of Marcum/Liriano on board.

I'd be more interested in seeing what PECOTA says about our team.

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 Post subject: Re: For You Math Folk -- ZiPS Projections for the 2013 Bucs
PostPosted: Wed Jan 16, 2013 12:28 pm 
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I see Irwin/Stewart/Oliver as "insert in case of injury" options. The real pitchers with potential to shine, in my view, are the eight I listed. Come 2014, the Pirates are likely swapping A.J. and Karstens for Cole and Taillon. That'll be an interesting year...


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 Post subject: Re: For You Math Folk -- ZiPS Projections for the 2013 Bucs
PostPosted: Wed Jan 16, 2013 8:51 pm 
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J_C_Steel wrote:
If Liriano can throw off of a mound by the end of February, then there's little risk. Hopefully, the Bucs' medical staff can take a look and Liriano can be brought into the fold. At least then the Pirates would have some SP depth:

A.J.
Wandy
J-Mac
Karstens
Liriano
K-McP / Locke
Cole (around July or so)

That's eight starters (three rookies). That could end up being OK.

Throw Morton into the mix for mid-season as well. Obviously, they think he's going to be ready and contribute.


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