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 Post subject: Stanton and farm system
PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2013 2:41 pm 
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After looking at all the discussion of a potential blockbuster trade for Stanton, all I can say is this.

Cole is untouchable. No one else should be. Since what most of us consider the core (Cutch, Walker, Pedro) arrived around 2010, every off season and trading deadline we are always talking about "We can't give up" or "________ is too valuable for the future," and the results have been.......

a mediocre half season of Marte in which he showed lots of promise, but also that he has a lot of learning to do at the Major League level and.......uh.....

a few homegrown relievers that made the club amidst the D'arneaus, Pressleys and other Quad A mediocrities.

So that's the result of our vaunted NH build farm system.

I say, go for it. Put Stanton and Cutch in the same outfield for the next three plus seasons and let's contend now. We've been talking about the future and our vaunted system for way too long. And now we're already talking about 74 wins this year and pushing the future back yet another time.


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 Post subject: Re: Stanton and farm system
PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2013 2:47 pm 
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Detroit gave up 5 players to receive Migel Cabrea and none of which I know have done much to this point. Might not take as much as we think to land him.


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 Post subject: Re: Stanton and farm system
PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2013 2:56 pm 
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It'll take Cole, I'm afraid.


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 Post subject: Re: Stanton and farm system
PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2013 2:58 pm 
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The problem with trading the farm system lies in your last sentence in my humble opinion.

"I say, go for it. Put Stanton and Cutch in the same outfield for the next three plus seasons and let's contend now. We've been talking about the future and our vaunted system for way too long. And now we're already talking about 74 wins this year and pushing the future back yet another time."

If we are only going to win 74 games next year, adding Stanton isn't going to put it us contention or even break the streak. He is incredible, don't get me wrong. Maybe he could go ballistic and hit 65 bombs and put up 12 WAR and put us in playoff contention. More likely, he puts up 5-7 WAR and we almost reach .500 again.

Now, I'm not saying don't make an offer for Stanton, but I think you have to include 3 other untouchables. Stanton would be a Pirate through 2016. That would give us 4 years with him. Since factual evidence indicates Stanton wouldn't be the sole difference between 75 wins and a playoff berth, he's going to need help. Cole is a start, but I'd want more. Taillon will start next year in AA and fingers crossed finish it in AAA or with a September call-up. He should be ready to go full time mid-2014. Hanson - who we really need to fill in and be the best SS we've had in decades - and Polanco can be ready by 2015 if the Pirates push them, giving them 2 years with Stanton. In the outfield, you'd have Cutch and Stanton, so that makes Polanco or Marte expendable. I include them in the trade. I then offer pretty much everyone else to get Stanton.

Polanco/Marte, Heredia, Kingham, Barnes, Locke, Tabata, and Jose Osuna or something like that. I'm not sure if it would get the trade done, but it's a fair offer - the Marlins would have to give 2 or 3 or more organizational minor leaguers to balance out the numbers. We would certainly be in contention sometime between 2013-2016 and if we get lucky on Hanson, Cole, and Taillon and the one we keep between Polanco/Marte, 2015 and 2016 could field potential championship teams. The major downside would be the farm system would be decimated. Looking ahead, that could hypothetically be fixed by trading McCutchen after the 2016 season. The Pirates could even go full firesale mode and trade Cole and say Marte if he's still around, guys with 2 or 3 years left on their contract instead of 4 or 5. Plus, the Pirates would get most likely two extra draft picks from Stanton and Alvarez leaving after the 2016 season.

It would create a vacuum in the farm system and most likely force a firesale. Then we could try and reload and contend in 2020 or so. The other option is to stay put, rely on a Cutch/Polanco/Marte lineup in a few years with Tabata, Presley, Snider, and Barnes as backup. Let Cole, Taillon, and Heredia shore up the rotation. Hanson take over at SS. Look to make a trade for a Stanton-esque player before the 2015 season instead of the 2013 season. I'm not sure who'd that would be, but the surrounding cast behind that player at McCutchen would be plenty stronger in a window of 2015-2018. That would be my preference.


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 Post subject: Re: Stanton and farm system
PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2013 3:00 pm 
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IMOKRU wrote:
Detroit gave up 5 players to receive Migel Cabrea and none of which I know have done much to this point. Might not take as much as we think to land him.


They were elite prospects, they just didn't pan out. The Red Sox traded Hanley Ramirez for Josh Beckett. The Braves gave up a freakin haul for Mark Teixeira. It can go both ways.


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 Post subject: Re: Stanton and farm system
PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2013 3:00 pm 
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McCutchenistheTruth wrote:
The problem with trading the farm system lies in your last sentence in my humble opinion.

"I say, go for it. Put Stanton and Cutch in the same outfield for the next three plus seasons and let's contend now. We've been talking about the future and our vaunted system for way too long. And now we're already talking about 74 wins this year and pushing the future back yet another time."

If we are only going to win 74 games next year, adding Stanton isn't going to put it us contention or even break the streak. He is incredible, don't get me wrong. Maybe he could go ballistic and hit 65 bombs and put up 12 WAR and put us in playoff contention. More likely, he puts up 5-7 WAR and we almost reach .500 again.

Now, I'm not saying don't make an offer for Stanton, but I think you have to include 3 other untouchables. Stanton would be a Pirate through 2016. That would give us 4 years with him. Since factual evidence indicates Stanton wouldn't be the sole difference between 75 wins and a playoff berth, he's going to need help. Cole is a start, but I'd want more. Taillon will start next year in AA and fingers crossed finish it in AAA or with a September call-up. He should be ready to go full time mid-2014. Hanson - who we really need to fill in and be the best SS we've had in decades - and Polanco can be ready by 2015 if the Pirates push them, giving them 2 years with Stanton. In the outfield, you'd have Cutch and Stanton, so that makes Polanco or Marte expendable. I include them in the trade. I then offer pretty much everyone else to get Stanton.

Polanco/Marte, Heredia, Kingham, Barnes, Locke, Tabata, and Jose Osuna or something like that. I'm not sure if it would get the trade done, but it's a fair offer - the Marlins would have to give 2 or 3 or more organizational minor leaguers to balance out the numbers. We would certainly be in contention sometime between 2013-2016 and if we get lucky on Hanson, Cole, and Taillon and the one we keep between Polanco/Marte, 2015 and 2016 could field potential championship teams. The major downside would be the farm system would be decimated. Looking ahead, that could hypothetically be fixed by trading McCutchen after the 2016 season. The Pirates could even go full firesale mode and trade Cole and say Marte if he's still around, guys with 2 or 3 years left on their contract instead of 4 or 5. Plus, the Pirates would get most likely two extra draft picks from Stanton and Alvarez leaving after the 2016 season.

It would create a vacuum in the farm system and most likely force a firesale. Then we could try and reload and contend in 2020 or so. The other option is to stay put, rely on a Cutch/Polanco/Marte lineup in a few years with Tabata, Presley, Snider, and Barnes as backup. Let Cole, Taillon, and Heredia shore up the rotation. Hanson take over at SS. Look to make a trade for a Stanton-esque player before the 2015 season instead of the 2013 season. I'm not sure who'd that would be, but the surrounding cast behind that player at McCutchen would be plenty stronger in a window of 2015-2018. That would be my preference.


You can throw in Josh Bell into the offer to the Marlins. Forgot about him.


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 Post subject: Re: Stanton and farm system
PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2013 3:28 pm 
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IMOKRU wrote:
Detroit gave up 5 players to receive Migel Cabrea and none of which I know have done much to this point. Might not take as much as we think to land him.


Posts like this are why this board could use a 'THANKS' function.

Well said.

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 Post subject: Re: Stanton and farm system
PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2013 3:30 pm 
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McCutchenistheTruth wrote:
The problem with trading the farm system lies in your last sentence in my humble opinion.

"I say, go for it. Put Stanton and Cutch in the same outfield for the next three plus seasons and let's contend now. We've been talking about the future and our vaunted system for way too long. And now we're already talking about 74 wins this year and pushing the future back yet another time."

If we are only going to win 74 games next year, adding Stanton isn't going to put it us contention or even break the streak. He is incredible, don't get me wrong. Maybe he could go ballistic and hit 65 bombs and put up 12 WAR and put us in playoff contention. More likely, he puts up 5-7 WAR and we almost reach .500 again.

Now, I'm not saying don't make an offer for Stanton, but I think you have to include 3 other untouchables. Stanton would be a Pirate through 2016. That would give us 4 years with him. Since factual evidence indicates Stanton wouldn't be the sole difference between 75 wins and a playoff berth, he's going to need help. Cole is a start, but I'd want more. Taillon will start next year in AA and fingers crossed finish it in AAA or with a September call-up. He should be ready to go full time mid-2014. Hanson - who we really need to fill in and be the best SS we've had in decades - and Polanco can be ready by 2015 if the Pirates push them, giving them 2 years with Stanton. In the outfield, you'd have Cutch and Stanton, so that makes Polanco or Marte expendable. I include them in the trade. I then offer pretty much everyone else to get Stanton.

Polanco/Marte, Heredia, Kingham, Barnes, Locke, Tabata, and Jose Osuna or something like that. I'm not sure if it would get the trade done, but it's a fair offer - the Marlins would have to give 2 or 3 or more organizational minor leaguers to balance out the numbers. We would certainly be in contention sometime between 2013-2016 and if we get lucky on Hanson, Cole, and Taillon and the one we keep between Polanco/Marte, 2015 and 2016 could field potential championship teams. The major downside would be the farm system would be decimated. Looking ahead, that could hypothetically be fixed by trading McCutchen after the 2016 season. The Pirates could even go full firesale mode and trade Cole and say Marte if he's still around, guys with 2 or 3 years left on their contract instead of 4 or 5. Plus, the Pirates would get most likely two extra draft picks from Stanton and Alvarez leaving after the 2016 season.

It would create a vacuum in the farm system and most likely force a firesale. Then we could try and reload and contend in 2020 or so. The other option is to stay put, rely on a Cutch/Polanco/Marte lineup in a few years with Tabata, Presley, Snider, and Barnes as backup. Let Cole, Taillon, and Heredia shore up the rotation. Hanson take over at SS. Look to make a trade for a Stanton-esque player before the 2015 season instead of the 2013 season. I'm not sure who'd that would be, but the surrounding cast behind that player at McCutchen would be plenty stronger in a window of 2015-2018. That would be my preference.



So once again, all these can't miss prospects are so valuable we suck again this year and maybe we can be a contender after almost 30 years under .500. in 2020.

Sorry after the steaming pile of excrement we were served in the last two months of last year, and then every single person responsible remaining employed, we deserve something more. Take a chance. I am not looking forward to another 2009. My patience is almost gone.


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 Post subject: Re: Stanton and farm system
PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2013 3:33 pm 
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IMOKRU wrote:
Detroit gave up 5 players to receive Migel Cabrea and none of which I know have done much to this point. Might not take as much as we think to land him.

Cabrera had 2 years of control left when the Marlins traded him. Stanton has 4 such years left. Cabrera was also slated to make over $10M in arbitration the following year. Stanton is likely expected to make just over $500k. The value of Stanton to the Marlins right now is much greater than the value Cabrera had to the Marlins at the time of his trade. Plus, regardless of where they are now, Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller were considered prized prospects at the time. I would not expect Stanton to go cheaply, if he goes at all.

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 Post subject: Re: Stanton and farm system
PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2013 3:33 pm 
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McCutchenistheTruth wrote:
The Red Sox traded Hanley Ramirez for Josh Beckett.


Actually, they traded Hanley and Anibal Sanchez (and two more guys who didn't pan out) for Beckett and Mike Lowell (and Guillermo Mota)... and then won another WS.

You're right citing the Tex trade and others, but this is the Marlins we're talking about.

They once traded Mike Piazza for Preston Wilson and Ed Yarnall.

Their FO makes the DL era look like 90's-00's Steinbrenner by comparison.

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 Post subject: Re: Stanton and farm system
PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2013 3:39 pm 
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WWTBD

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 Post subject: Re: Stanton and farm system
PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2013 3:51 pm 
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J.D. wrote:
So once again, all these can't miss prospects are so valuable we suck again this year and maybe we can be a contender after almost 30 years under .500. in 2020.

Sorry after the steaming pile of excrement we were served in the last two months of last year, and then every single person responsible remaining employed, we deserve something more. Take a chance. I am not looking forward to another 2009. My patience is almost gone.

You're missing the point of Truth's post: trading for Stanton will not make the Pirates a winner by itself. Stanton is very good, but he's not a world-beater. The Pirates will still need more good players, and those good players are likely to come from the Pirates' farm system. If you give up the entire farm for Stanton, there will be no one else to help the Pirates win for a very long time, outside of some below-average veteran free agents in the mold of Sean Casey and Kevin Correia. Trading the entire farm for Stanton would be a Pyrrhic victory.

I'm happy to consider trading for Stanton, but offering any 2 of Cole, Taillon and Heredia would be a mistake. As good as Stanton is, there is one thing he cannot do: pitch. And we will still need pitchers for when AJ Burnett and Wandy Rodriguez inevitably leave.

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 Post subject: Re: Stanton and farm system
PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2013 4:12 pm 
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Willton wrote:
You're missing the point of Truth's post: trading for Stanton will not make the Pirates a winner by itself. Stanton is very good, but he's not a world-beater. The Pirates will still need more good players, and those good players are likely to come from the Pirates' farm system. If you give up the entire farm for Stanton, there will be no one else to help the Pirates win for a very long time, outside of some below-average veteran free agents in the mold of Sean Casey and Kevin Correia. Trading the entire farm for Stanton would be a Pyrrhic victory.



Despite all the evidence to the contrary on the farm system? Lincoln? Maholm? Going back to Van Ben Schotten and Bullington?

And on your free agent thing? Yeah, at some point in the future Nutting will have to pony up cash for a real free agent, which as we all know, will never happen. I bet if one looked back at the history of this board in its current inception, we would see a bunch of post saying, "Gee, when we get near to being a contender, then Nutting will spend some money. Why, by golly, it may be as early as 2010.......11.......12.....13...................

Overvaluing prospects and never spending for a real free agent. You and Truth are right Wilton. I guess we should just wait until 2020.


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 Post subject: Re: Stanton and farm system
PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2013 5:03 pm 
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J.D. wrote:
McCutchenistheTruth wrote:
The problem with trading the farm system lies in your last sentence in my humble opinion.

"I say, go for it. Put Stanton and Cutch in the same outfield for the next three plus seasons and let's contend now. We've been talking about the future and our vaunted system for way too long. And now we're already talking about 74 wins this year and pushing the future back yet another time."

If we are only going to win 74 games next year, adding Stanton isn't going to put it us contention or even break the streak. He is incredible, don't get me wrong. Maybe he could go ballistic and hit 65 bombs and put up 12 WAR and put us in playoff contention. More likely, he puts up 5-7 WAR and we almost reach .500 again.

Now, I'm not saying don't make an offer for Stanton, but I think you have to include 3 other untouchables. Stanton would be a Pirate through 2016. That would give us 4 years with him. Since factual evidence indicates Stanton wouldn't be the sole difference between 75 wins and a playoff berth, he's going to need help. Cole is a start, but I'd want more. Taillon will start next year in AA and fingers crossed finish it in AAA or with a September call-up. He should be ready to go full time mid-2014. Hanson - who we really need to fill in and be the best SS we've had in decades - and Polanco can be ready by 2015 if the Pirates push them, giving them 2 years with Stanton. In the outfield, you'd have Cutch and Stanton, so that makes Polanco or Marte expendable. I include them in the trade. I then offer pretty much everyone else to get Stanton.

Polanco/Marte, Heredia, Kingham, Barnes, Locke, Tabata, and Jose Osuna or something like that. I'm not sure if it would get the trade done, but it's a fair offer - the Marlins would have to give 2 or 3 or more organizational minor leaguers to balance out the numbers. We would certainly be in contention sometime between 2013-2016 and if we get lucky on Hanson, Cole, and Taillon and the one we keep between Polanco/Marte, 2015 and 2016 could field potential championship teams. The major downside would be the farm system would be decimated. Looking ahead, that could hypothetically be fixed by trading McCutchen after the 2016 season. The Pirates could even go full firesale mode and trade Cole and say Marte if he's still around, guys with 2 or 3 years left on their contract instead of 4 or 5. Plus, the Pirates would get most likely two extra draft picks from Stanton and Alvarez leaving after the 2016 season.

It would create a vacuum in the farm system and most likely force a firesale. Then we could try and reload and contend in 2020 or so. The other option is to stay put, rely on a Cutch/Polanco/Marte lineup in a few years with Tabata, Presley, Snider, and Barnes as backup. Let Cole, Taillon, and Heredia shore up the rotation. Hanson take over at SS. Look to make a trade for a Stanton-esque player before the 2015 season instead of the 2013 season. I'm not sure who'd that would be, but the surrounding cast behind that player at McCutchen would be plenty stronger in a window of 2015-2018. That would be my preference.



So once again, all these can't miss prospects are so valuable we suck again this year and maybe we can be a contender after almost 30 years under .500. in 2020.

Sorry after the steaming pile of excrement we were served in the last two months of last year, and then every single person responsible remaining employed, we deserve something more. Take a chance. I am not looking forward to another 2009. My patience is almost gone.


No. Did you read? I said trade for Stanton, but try and keep Cole, Taillon, and Hanson. I'd prefer us to make a big move in a few years rather than now though because the supporting cast will be better heading into the 2015 season than the 2013 season. Gone will be Wandy, Burnett, Martin, Barmes, and Liriano, but Cole, Taillon, Sanchez, Hanson, Polanco, and Irwin should easily replace them and be much better. I'm all for an all-in strategy, I just think now is one or two years too early to execute it unless you can trade guys from the lower minors.


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 Post subject: Re: Stanton and farm system
PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2013 6:27 pm 
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J.D. wrote:
Willton wrote:
You're missing the point of Truth's post: trading for Stanton will not make the Pirates a winner by itself. Stanton is very good, but he's not a world-beater. The Pirates will still need more good players, and those good players are likely to come from the Pirates' farm system. If you give up the entire farm for Stanton, there will be no one else to help the Pirates win for a very long time, outside of some below-average veteran free agents in the mold of Sean Casey and Kevin Correia. Trading the entire farm for Stanton would be a Pyrrhic victory.

Despite all the evidence to the contrary on the farm system? Lincoln? Maholm? Going back to Van Ben Schotten and Bullington?

What evidence do you have that is "to the contrary on the farm system"? What similarities do you draw between Cole and Taillon on the one hand, and Lincoln, Maholm, JVB and Bullington on the other? How are they in any way similar, outside of being pitchers that at one point pitched in the Pirates' farm system? Or are you just reacting emotionally to years of mismanagement by prior front offices?

J.D. wrote:
And on your free agent thing? Yeah, at some point in the future Nutting will have to pony up cash for a real free agent, which as we all know, will never happen. I bet if one looked back at the history of this board in its current inception, we would see a bunch of post saying, "Gee, when we get near to being a contender, then Nutting will spend some money. Why, by golly, it may be as early as 2010.......11.......12.....13...................

"As we all know"? What do we all know? How could we possibly know that Nutting will never pony up the cash for "a real free agent" when we near contention? When have the Pirates last approached contention in the last 12 years? The truth is that you have no goddamn clue what the Pirates would do once they approach contention. Your cynical guessing is merely that: guessing.

If Nutting is willing to extend a rich contract extension to McCutchen, approve trades for expensive players like AJ Burnett and Wandy Rodriguez, and offer a $17M 2-year contract to Russell Martin, then perhaps the "Nutting is Cheap" meme lacks merit. However, the fact that the Pirates reside in a small market is inescapable, and they likely do not have the resources to convince the likes of Prince Fielder or CC Sabathia to play in Pittsburgh over a larger market. Barring a change in MLB's economics or a migration of wealth from the coasts to the Rust Belt, that's a reality that you are just going to have to accept.

J.D. wrote:
Overvaluing prospects and never spending for a real free agent. You and Truth are right Wilton. I guess we should just wait until 2020.

As opposed to your method, which apparently includes blowing your load on one or two players and hoping that doing so will put the Pirates in contention? The 2012 Marlins tried that. The Mariners and Mets did it for years. It doesn't work.

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 Post subject: Re: Stanton and farm system
PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2013 8:40 pm 
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Willton wrote:
As opposed to your method, which apparently includes blowing your load on one or two players and hoping that doing so will put the Pirates in contention? The 2012 Marlins tried that. The Mariners and Mets did it for years. It doesn't work.


This is true, but a few things...

The M's and Mets often traded for older players or players not on truly 'elite' status (Erik Bedard is not Zach Grienke).

Touche on the Marlins, but they broke the bank; the Pirates would be trading lotto tickets for a cheap All-Star/MVP candidate.

Lastly and most importantly, aren't the Bucs in position to trade from the deep-ish farm system the have?

Years of picking in the top-5 has replenished their system to respectability. Paying over slot also helped the system thrive faster. They have two first rounders this year.

Of their young arms, it stands to reason that one or two will go dud, right? So why not trade a few (NOT Cole) along with some other prospects who might not fit in their long-term plan (specifically OFers) for a 'sure thing' like Stanton.

I agree that Stanton is unlikely to be moved until he hits arb. and that Taillon/Marte may very well become productive-to-All-Star ML'ers, but if there were ever a time to try and make a splash, this would be it, right?

I believe that you are right about the best long-term strategy for winning is building from the ground up. However, when the opportunity arises to even pursue an elite talent like Stanton, it seems foolish to not attempt to try.

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 Post subject: Re: Stanton and farm system
PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2013 8:55 pm 
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I actually would like to see Cole and Taillon reach the majors as buccos and witness their dominance as pirates. Now I'd like to see Stanton a pirate as well but wouldn't give up those two aforementioned horses to get him here. They will be special major league pitchers. I haven't given up on Bell and believe even though young and battling an early injury that he'll move through the system quickly. He's very talented and a switch hitter. He understands how to handle himself at the plate. All in all don't put yourself in position to sell the farm for one great player when you need so much more.


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 Post subject: Re: Stanton and farm system
PostPosted: Fri Jan 04, 2013 12:25 pm 
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I wouldn't trade Cole or Bell, but I would damn sure deal Taillon, Marte and two or three "lesser" prospects for Stanton...


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 Post subject: Re: Stanton and farm system
PostPosted: Fri Jan 04, 2013 12:29 pm 
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Let me rephrase what I said above...I would deal Cole or Bell (not together) and if Cole or Bell is in the deal, the deal has far fewer players in it...


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 Post subject: Re: Stanton and farm system
PostPosted: Fri Jan 04, 2013 2:55 pm 
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House of Poe wrote:
I wouldn't trade Cole or Bell, but I would damn sure deal Taillon, Marte and two or three "lesser" prospects for Stanton...


I'm curious. Why Taillon but not Bell? I know you clarified below, but it seems you value Bell more than Taillon. At this point, Taillon is the far superior prospect, closer to the majors (ready to help sooner, which we could use), and Bell's position is much much deeper (we have 6 billion outfielders and outfield prospects for 3 spots compared to less good pitching prospects for 5 spots).

I'm not advocating Taillon should be untouchable, but the idea of keeping Bell over Taillon, even if you factor in the fact that Taillon would be worth more in a trade (and would hypothetically require the inclusion of less from the Pirates to complete the deal), strikes me as strange.


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