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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan trade
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 10:23 am 
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Wilton, not one of your reasons had anything to do with sabremetrics. Pedro got tired after 100 pitches, u make sure he doesn't go over that number...common sense. Ortiz is a DH and the AL has the DH...Bellhorn was also a solid defensive player at a position that demands defense and he did get on base a ton...
Do u honestly think us old school guys don't know the importance of on-base% or slugging%? Those numbers have been around and we know their importance...the only two good stats to come from these stat geeks are OPS and WHIP and the OPS isn't used properly...the rest of your new age stats are crap that can be manipulated to make an ordinary player look like a dominant fantasy league stud...
For the record. The next time I hear some moron talk about a Punch and Judy hitters OPS, they're gonna get repeatedly punched in the throat...


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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan trade
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 11:07 am 
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House of Poe wrote:
Wilton, not one of your reasons had anything to do with sabremetrics. Pedro got tired after 100 pitches, u make sure he doesn't go over that number...common sense. Ortiz is a DH and the AL has the DH...Bellhorn was also a solid defensive player at a position that demands defense and he did get on base a ton...
Do u honestly think us old school guys don't know the importance of on-base% or slugging%? Those numbers have been around and we know their importance...the only two good stats to come from these stat geeks are OPS and WHIP and the OPS isn't used properly...the rest of your new age stats are crap that can be manipulated to make an ordinary player look like a dominant fantasy league stud...
For the record. The next time I hear some moron talk about a Punch and Judy hitters OPS, they're gonna get repeatedly punched in the throat...


Wow you nailed it, the whole purpose of the SABR is to make fantasy players look good :roll:

Put your head in the sand and ignore facts. What is the possible argument for ERA over xFIP? xFIP is proven to better predict future ERA. Its simple math, you graph previous year xFIP versus the next season's ERA then calculate the R value. You point out the obvious flaw in OPS (it treats obp and slg equally which is clearly wrong), that is the reason why wOBA and wRC+ are superior.

"We mock what we don't understand" - Austin Millbarge

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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan trade
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 11:09 am 
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Another take on the trade -
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.ph ... n-shuffle/

The argument that Joel was worse than Melancon the last two years.

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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan trade
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 11:11 am 
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Barrys Dopers wrote:
House of Poe wrote:
Wilton, not one of your reasons had anything to do with sabremetrics. Pedro got tired after 100 pitches, u make sure he doesn't go over that number...common sense. Ortiz is a DH and the AL has the DH...Bellhorn was also a solid defensive player at a position that demands defense and he did get on base a ton...
Do u honestly think us old school guys don't know the importance of on-base% or slugging%? Those numbers have been around and we know their importance...the only two good stats to come from these stat geeks are OPS and WHIP and the OPS isn't used properly...the rest of your new age stats are crap that can be manipulated to make an ordinary player look like a dominant fantasy league stud...
For the record. The next time I hear some moron talk about a Punch and Judy hitters OPS, they're gonna get repeatedly punched in the throat...


Wow you nailed it, the whole purpose of the SABR is to make fantasy players look good :roll:

Put your head in the sand and ignore facts. What is the possible argument for ERA over xFIP? xFIP is proven to better predict future ERA. Its simple math, you graph previous year xFIP versus the next season's ERA then calculate the R value. You point out the obvious flaw in OPS (it treats obp and slg equally which is clearly wrong), that is the reason why wOBA and wRC+ are superior.

"We mock what we don't understand" - Austin Millbarge

Don't bother, Barry's. Poe is the baseball equivalent of a Luddite.

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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan trade
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 11:36 am 
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You can't gauge future ERA's with a formula because nobody can see the other variables involved (the pitchers health, sudden loss or gain of velocity or movement, player gets dealt and has to pitch in a bandbox or canyon...)
All these numbers are for people who don't know how to instinctively look at a player and determine if he's any good. I don't need these numbers because I've been around the game long enough to know (with pretty good accuracy) who can play at the major league level and who can't...


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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan trade
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 12:56 pm 
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House of Poe wrote:
You can't gauge future ERA's with a formula because nobody can see the other variables involved (the pitchers health, sudden loss or gain of velocity or movement, player gets dealt and has to pitch in a bandbox or canyon...)
All these numbers are for people who don't know how to instinctively look at a player and determine if he's any good. I don't need these numbers because I've been around the game long enough to know (with pretty good accuracy) who can play at the major league level and who can't...

Really? Then why are you basing your analysis of this trade on numbers? You point to Sands' batting average and Hanrahan's saves and ERA in this discussion, and you presumably use Melancon's numbers to evaluate him because I find it very unlikely you watched Melancon pitch all of last season in Boston and the season before in Houston.

But if you are so damn good at evaluating players based on observation, then have at it. Please explain to us, based on your own observations, what it is about Hanrahan that makes him so special despite the fact that he walked over 5 batters every 9 innings and gave up 1.2 homeruns per 9 last year, which is ten times as many as he did the year before. Then please explain to us, based on your own observations, why Melancon, Sands, Pimentel, and DeJesus is not enough for Hanrahan and Holt. We'll wait.

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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan trade
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 1:46 pm 
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No problem Wilton...
First of all, despite Hanrahan's control problems and his tendency to leave his pitches up, he got the job done and the bottom line is it doesn't matter how bad it looked, he got it done...looking forward, Hanrahan will have to keep his pitches down and have better control or he will get abused in the better hitting AL.
I've already made my opinion known about the players involved in this deal but I'll do it again...I like Melancon because he throws hard and hits his spots...he did well in Houston, but struggled with the Yanks and Sox, leading me to believe he's more comfortable being away from the big stage...I think he'll do well taking Grilli's setup role... The other three players are a crapshoot. Sands could be a decent player, but I'm not betting on it...really good prospects don't get dealt twice in less than a year...I like his power, but he's another example of a AAAA player. DeJesus glove is major league ready, but he can't hit well enough to be an everyday player and while I would like to have him as a defensive replacement guy, the bench would have to be really good offensively to justify keeping him on the major league roster. Pimentel is a mess...he's gotten destroyed two straight years in a pitching friendly Eastern League...he might be better with a change of scenery, but he will have to go back to the Eastern League...He has the stuff to be a big leaguer, but he doesn't have the mentality...I doubt that he ever will...


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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan trade
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 1:57 pm 
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This is a case of the Pirates being the Pirates. Trade a guy for a bunch of spare AAAA parts, none of which are as good as the person traded. What is the problem with letting a guy reach free agency? I mean seriously, does it do any good to get a handful of players that are just OK? Are you telling me there won't be a slug of Melancon-type players ready for every MLB team to pick up next off season?

What the Pirates have been doing for years hasn't worked. There isn't a sane person out there that can argue this. Trade a good player at his walk year only to get crap in return. Hey Pirates...take a chance...get a great year out of a player and see what happens! You don't have to sign him for next season and you can get bullpen help in the off season.

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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan trade
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 2:09 pm 
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House of Poe wrote:
No problem Wilton...
First of all, despite Hanrahan's control problems and his tendency to leave his pitches up, he got the job done and the bottom line is it doesn't matter how bad it looked, he got it done...looking forward, Hanrahan will have to keep his pitches down and have better control or he will get abused in the better hitting AL.
I've already made my opinion known about the players involved in this deal but I'll do it again...I like Melancon because he throws hard and hits his spots...he did well in Houston, but struggled with the Yanks and Sox, leading me to believe he's more comfortable being away from the big stage...I think he'll do well taking Grilli's setup role... The other three players are a crapshoot. Sands could be a decent player, but I'm not betting on it...really good prospects don't get dealt twice in less than a year...I like his power, but he's another example of a AAAA player. DeJesus glove is major league ready, but he can't hit well enough to be an everyday player and while I would like to have him as a defensive replacement guy, the bench would have to be really good offensively to justify keeping him on the major league roster. Pimentel is a mess...he's gotten destroyed two straight years in a pitching friendly Eastern League...he might be better with a change of scenery, but he will have to go back to the Eastern League...He has the stuff to be a big leaguer, but he doesn't have the mentality...I doubt that he ever will...

Your "analysis" lacks the amount of detail I was hoping someone with your self-proclaimed ability would be able to provide. There are a slew of generalizations here about Hanrahan, Melancon and Sands that are begging for a more refined discussion. Your analysis looks like you just looked at the back of their baseball cards and inferred some generalized conclusions about their ability going forward.

You seem to admit that if Hanrahan pitches for Boston like he did for the Pirates in 2012, he is going to get lit up. So why are you so high on him? What makes you think that he will "keep his pitches down and have better control" next year? What makes you think that 2012 was the anomaly and not 2011?

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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan trade
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 2:35 pm 
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Not to mention the fact that there's an extra high draft pick involved if the player walks...this deal doesn't have a good future unless a lot of things fall into place...


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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan trade
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 2:45 pm 
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I will freely admit that Hanrahan will get pounded if he has another year like 2012 but I don't think he will because one year doesn't make it a trend and I think he has the mental toughness to play in a demanding town like Boston.
I don't need a five page dissertation on each player...either the guy can play in the bigs or he can't...I've offered my opinion and if I'm wrong, I'll be happy because that means the Bucs made a great deal...unfortunately, I'm not going to be way off base on this one...


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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan trade
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 2:48 pm 
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House of Poe wrote:
Not to mention the fact that there's an extra high draft pick involved if the player walks...this deal doesn't have a good future unless a lot of things fall into place...

That presumes that the Pirates would have offered Hanrahan a contract that was at least equal to the average of the 125 richest contracts in baseball, and that Hanrahan would have rejected such a deal. I find that to be rather farfetched. Either you are not completely aware of the new free agent compensation rules in the new CBA (see here), or you are being completely unrealistic as to what Hanrahan could get as a free agent in the 2013-2014 offseason.

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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan trade
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 2:54 pm 
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Depends on the length of the deal... I'm sure Hanrahan will be looking for a three year deal minimum...


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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan trade
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 6:01 pm 
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Several more blogs weigh in -

Two from the Sox side -
http://www.overthemonster.com/2012/12/2 ... ox-pirates

http://thebeanball.com/2012/12/27/new-b ... -a-closer/

One from our side -
http://raisethejollyroger.com/2012/12/h ... -complete/

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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan trade
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 6:50 pm 
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House of Poe wrote:
You can't gauge future ERA's with a formula because nobody can see the other variables involved (the pitchers health, sudden loss or gain of velocity or movement, player gets dealt and has to pitch in a bandbox or canyon...)
All these numbers are for people who don't know how to instinctively look at a player and determine if he's any good. I don't need these numbers because I've been around the game long enough to know (with pretty good accuracy) who can play at the major league level and who can't...

If those people who knew how to instinctively look at a player and determine if he's any good had a clue, Chad Hermanson would be wrapping up his HOF career right about now.

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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan trade
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 7:19 pm 
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House of Poe wrote:
Not to mention the fact that there's an extra high draft pick involved if the player walks...this deal doesn't have a good future unless a lot of things fall into place...


There is no draft pick for Joel, they would have had to offer $13 million to get one.

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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan trade
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 7:43 pm 
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sisyphus wrote:
If those people who knew how to instinctively look at a player and determine if he's any good had a clue, Chad Hermanson would be wrapping up his HOF career right about now.

He WOULD, except the cheap Nuttings wanted to keep him affordable and never gave him a chance.

Never mind that his career pre-dates Nutting, or that his actual production was woeful. I can STILL blame those cheap Nutting bastards.


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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan trade
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 7:47 pm 
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Barrys Dopers wrote:
House of Poe wrote:
Not to mention the fact that there's an extra high draft pick involved if the player walks...this deal doesn't have a good future unless a lot of things fall into place...


There is no draft pick for Joel, they would have had to offer $13 million to get one.


And he would have taken 13. Therefore we wouldn't have had the pick anyways.


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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan trade
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 7:49 pm 
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House of Poe wrote:
I will freely admit that Hanrahan will get pounded if he has another year like 2012 but I don't think he will because one year doesn't make it a trend and I think he has the mental toughness to play in a demanding town like Boston.
I don't need a five page dissertation on each player...either the guy can play in the bigs or he can't...I've offered my opinion and if I'm wrong, I'll be happy because that means the Bucs made a great deal...unfortunately, I'm not going to be way off base on this one...


Of course the real Joel could have been the 2007 - 2009, 2012 pitcher and 2010 and 2011 could have been the fluke years.


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