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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan reportedly going to Red Sox
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 8:30 pm 
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IA Pirate wrote:
Barrys Dopers wrote:
Grilli is clearly better than Joel as a pitcher.


Wait...what?!?


Please provide any argument that Joel Hanrahan is better than Jason Grilli. Grilli K's more, BB's less, and is harder to hit.

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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan reportedly going to Red Sox
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 9:24 pm 
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Barrys Dopers wrote:
Please provide any argument that Joel Hanrahan is better than Jason Grilli. Grilli K's more, BB's less, and is harder to hit.


You have got to be kidding me. First, Grilli was recently cut by the Phillies. Last season alone the ERA's were 2.72 and 2.91, respectively. Hammer was 36 of 40 in save opportunities while Grilli was 2 for 5. I respect your viewpoint on many things but this is just plain silly.

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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan reportedly going to Red Sox
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 9:39 pm 
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IA Pirate wrote:
Barrys Dopers wrote:
Please provide any argument that Joel Hanrahan is better than Jason Grilli. Grilli K's more, BB's less, and is harder to hit.


You have got to be kidding me. First, Grilli was recently cut by the Phillies. Last season alone the ERA's were 2.72 and 2.91, respectively. Hammer was 36 of 40 in save opportunities while Grilli was 2 for 5. I respect your viewpoint on many things but this is just plain silly.


:lol:

Yikes.


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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan reportedly going to Red Sox
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 10:54 pm 
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Adding this in quickly, sorry if posted elsewhere:

http://www.overthemonster.com/2012/12/2 ... ox-pirates

Quote:
Joel Hanrahan and Mark Melancon had very different seasons in 2012. But there are reasons to believe they will not be so far apart in 2013, and that the Red Sox just gave up Jerry Sands and two years of team control for nothing.

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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan reportedly going to Red Sox
PostPosted: Sat Dec 29, 2012 2:16 am 
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Okay...so Grilli is a better pitcher than Hanrahan and it's tougher to pitch in the 8th inning than it is to get the final three outs of a game...gotcha.
Excuse me bartender...I'll have whatever these guys are drinking please...


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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan reportedly going to Red Sox
PostPosted: Sat Dec 29, 2012 11:04 am 
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IA Pirate wrote:
Barrys Dopers wrote:
Please provide any argument that Joel Hanrahan is better than Jason Grilli. Grilli K's more, BB's less, and is harder to hit.


You have got to be kidding me. First, Grilli was recently cut by the Phillies. Last season alone the ERA's were 2.72 and 2.91, respectively. Hammer was 36 of 40 in save opportunities while Grilli was 2 for 5. I respect your viewpoint on many things but this is just plain silly.


Come on IA, you couldn't have watched many games in 2012 if you think Joel was better than Grilli. I don't even need every stat in the book that shows I'm correct.

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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan reportedly going to Red Sox
PostPosted: Sat Dec 29, 2012 12:50 pm 
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Barrys Dopers wrote:
IA Pirate wrote:
Barrys Dopers wrote:
Please provide any argument that Joel Hanrahan is better than Jason Grilli. Grilli K's more, BB's less, and is harder to hit.


You have got to be kidding me. First, Grilli was recently cut by the Phillies. Last season alone the ERA's were 2.72 and 2.91, respectively. Hammer was 36 of 40 in save opportunities while Grilli was 2 for 5. I respect your viewpoint on many things but this is just plain silly.


Come on IA, you couldn't have watched many games in 2012 if you think Joel was better than Grilli. I don't even need every stat in the book that shows I'm correct.

Dopers, you are taking a small sample, in this case 1 season, and making a blanket statement that Grilli is better than Hammer. As IA pointed out, Grilli was on the trash heap just a couple seasons ago.

Look at Grilli's career...my God he was average on his best day before coming to Pittsburgh. He never had a strikeout rate even CLOSE to what he did last year in Pittsburgh. And everyone is complaining about the HR's with Hammer. He gave up 8. GRILLI GAVE UP 7! The only difference in the two was the walk rate. Hanrahan had one above average year in Washington, before flaming out there. Since coming to Pittsburgh, Hanrahan was DARN good...dominant for large stretches. The walks and HR's will always be something he has to watch out for. And I'm not saying he is going to go to Boston and dominate. I don't think anyone can say for sure. And as a Pirate fan I hope Grilli saves 45 games and K's 125 guys this year. But again, nobody can predict for sure how he will do.

I find it funny that most people here are assuming Hammer goes in the tank, and that Melancon will bounce back and Grilli will have a great season(hopefully without the late season fade by the way). Of the 3, Hammer is the one with the best track record, yet everyone is trying to spin it the other way. But your argument is ridiculous. Looking at body of work, Hammer is clearly a better pitcher. And even last year there wasn't the huge discrepancy that you(and others) make it out to be.


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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan reportedly going to Red Sox
PostPosted: Sat Dec 29, 2012 2:50 pm 
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House of Poe wrote:
Okay...so Grilli is a better pitcher than Hanrahan and it's tougher to pitch in the 8th inning than it is to get the final three outs of a game...gotcha.
Excuse me bartender...I'll have whatever these guys are drinking please...

Feel free to point out the post which states it's tougher to pitch in the 8th than in the 9th.

It's always a lot easier to post a snarky reply when you get to make up what the other guy says.

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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan reportedly going to Red Sox
PostPosted: Sat Dec 29, 2012 3:06 pm 
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PirateParrot wrote:
Look at Grilli's career...my God he was average on his best day before coming to Pittsburgh.


There's a glass half empty/full dilemma concerning Grilli's career.

On one hand you look at it and say, 'six different teams in ten big-league years... what's wrong with him?'

Then on the other you have to say, 'Well, he's hung around this long and convinced six different teams he's useful, so... he must be doing something(s) right!' :D

PirateParrot wrote:
I find it funny that most people here are assuming Hammer goes in the tank, and that Melancon will bounce back and Grilli will have a great season.


It is a classic case of homer bias. Still, it's not totally illogical and we Pirate fans need all the optimism we can get! :D

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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan reportedly going to Red Sox
PostPosted: Sat Dec 29, 2012 4:58 pm 
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PirateParrot wrote:
Barrys Dopers wrote:

Come on IA, you couldn't have watched many games in 2012 if you think Joel was better than Grilli. I don't even need every stat in the book that shows I'm correct.

Dopers, you are taking a small sample, in this case 1 season, and making a blanket statement that Grilli is better than Hammer. As IA pointed out, Grilli was on the trash heap just a couple seasons ago.

Look at Grilli's career...my God he was average on his best day before coming to Pittsburgh. He never had a strikeout rate even CLOSE to what he did last year in Pittsburgh. And everyone is complaining about the HR's with Hammer. He gave up 8. GRILLI GAVE UP 7! The only difference in the two was the walk rate. Hanrahan had one above average year in Washington, before flaming out there. Since coming to Pittsburgh, Hanrahan was DARN good...dominant for large stretches. The walks and HR's will always be something he has to watch out for. And I'm not saying he is going to go to Boston and dominate. I don't think anyone can say for sure. And as a Pirate fan I hope Grilli saves 45 games and K's 125 guys this year. But again, nobody can predict for sure how he will do.

I find it funny that most people here are assuming Hammer goes in the tank, and that Melancon will bounce back and Grilli will have a great season(hopefully without the late season fade by the way). Of the 3, Hammer is the one with the best track record, yet everyone is trying to spin it the other way. But your argument is ridiculous. Looking at body of work, Hammer is clearly a better pitcher. And even last year there wasn't the huge discrepancy that you(and others) make it out to be.


PP, I could care less what they have done in the past. I didn't say Grilli was better than Joel over his career. I am interested in who they are now and Joel is a guy who walks a ton and gives up lots of flyballs, actually he has been that guy his entire career except for 2011. Hanrahan got by in 2012 on a really low babip against of .225 (his career norm is .306). Look at Joel's stats and tell me 2011 doesn't look like a fluke. He threw harder, K'd way less and had almost no walks or HR against.

Judging Grilli on his early days before he improved his fastball is silly. He has been the same dominant guy for two years and he K's more batters and doesn't walk 4-5 per 9IP like Joel. Grilli was great last year with a normal babip against of .309. Even Bill James projects Grilli better than Joel. BTW the gap last year was cavernous Grilli FIP was 2.80, Joel's was 4.45.

The beauty of this is that we will see who is better soon enough.

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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan reportedly going to Red Sox
PostPosted: Sat Dec 29, 2012 6:11 pm 
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Hanrahan is a good pitcher, and successful in his role as closer. I would wager that he regresses some next year, but if he reduces his BB rate to below 4 per 9 IP, he will do just fine.

The simple fact of the matter is that the best player involved in the trade was Hanrahan. However, the 2nd best player was Melancon, the 3rd best was Sands, and the 4th best was probably Pimental based purely on ceiling and potential.

The Pirates get a very serviceable RP'er who deals in the mid-90's with a superior ground ball rate, a power-hitter with a plus walk rate, and a young starting pitcher in the minors who deals in the mid to upper-90's with a plus change BECAUSE Hanrahan is good.


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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan reportedly going to Red Sox
PostPosted: Sat Dec 29, 2012 9:42 pm 
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Barrys Dopers wrote:
PirateParrot wrote:
Barrys Dopers wrote:

Come on IA, you couldn't have watched many games in 2012 if you think Joel was better than Grilli. I don't even need every stat in the book that shows I'm correct.

Dopers, you are taking a small sample, in this case 1 season, and making a blanket statement that Grilli is better than Hammer. As IA pointed out, Grilli was on the trash heap just a couple seasons ago.

Look at Grilli's career...my God he was average on his best day before coming to Pittsburgh. He never had a strikeout rate even CLOSE to what he did last year in Pittsburgh. And everyone is complaining about the HR's with Hammer. He gave up 8. GRILLI GAVE UP 7! The only difference in the two was the walk rate. Hanrahan had one above average year in Washington, before flaming out there. Since coming to Pittsburgh, Hanrahan was DARN good...dominant for large stretches. The walks and HR's will always be something he has to watch out for. And I'm not saying he is going to go to Boston and dominate. I don't think anyone can say for sure. And as a Pirate fan I hope Grilli saves 45 games and K's 125 guys this year. But again, nobody can predict for sure how he will do.

I find it funny that most people here are assuming Hammer goes in the tank, and that Melancon will bounce back and Grilli will have a great season(hopefully without the late season fade by the way). Of the 3, Hammer is the one with the best track record, yet everyone is trying to spin it the other way. But your argument is ridiculous. Looking at body of work, Hammer is clearly a better pitcher. And even last year there wasn't the huge discrepancy that you(and others) make it out to be.


PP, I could care less what they have done in the past. I didn't say Grilli was better than Joel over his career. I am interested in who they are now and Joel is a guy who walks a ton and gives up lots of flyballs, actually he has been that guy his entire career except for 2011. Hanrahan got by in 2012 on a really low babip against of .225 (his career norm is .306). Look at Joel's stats and tell me 2011 doesn't look like a fluke. He threw harder, K'd way less and had almost no walks or HR against.

Judging Grilli on his early days before he improved his fastball is silly. He has been the same dominant guy for two years and he K's more batters and doesn't walk 4-5 per 9IP like Joel. Grilli was great last year with a normal babip against of .309. Even Bill James projects Grilli better than Joel. BTW the gap last year was cavernous Grilli FIP was 2.80, Joel's was 4.45.

The beauty of this is that we will see who is better soon enough.


It's more than the fact that Grilli hasn't been that good until the very recent past- he's also on the wrong side of 35. How likely is his improved fastball going to hold up for the next year? Two years? That's the gamble.

I don't have a problem with Grilli and Melancon in the pen and no Hammer. That's why I was a proponent of trading Joel in the first place. But there is a decent chance we see quite a bit of regression from Grilli, regardless of what FIP might predict.

The thing is, I think Joel is a candidate to get lit up in the AL East.


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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan reportedly going to Red Sox
PostPosted: Mon Dec 31, 2012 1:15 am 
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IA Pirate wrote:
Barrys Dopers wrote:
Please provide any argument that Joel Hanrahan is better than Jason Grilli. Grilli K's more, BB's less, and is harder to hit.


You have got to be kidding me. First, Grilli was recently cut by the Phillies. Last season alone the ERA's were 2.72 and 2.91, respectively. Hammer was 36 of 40 in save opportunities while Grilli was 2 for 5. I respect your viewpoint on many things but this is just plain silly.

Grilli was cut by the Phillies two years ago. He has since pitched lights out baseball for the Pirates, particularly last year when he averaged 13 Ks per 9 innings and had 4 Ks for ever walk he issued. Is it so unbelievable to think that Grilli is not the same pitcher he was when he was cut by the Phillies?

Regarding the respective ERAs and Save percentages of Hanrahan and Grilli, all of that is circumstantial. First, Grilli was only given 5 opportunities to record saves last season (three of which were really blown "hold" opportunities, since they were blown in the 8th); had Grilli been given more, he may have matched or surpassed Hanrahan's 90% success rate. Second, every save opportunity Grilli had were in games where he was protecting a one run lead, whereas a healthy fraction of the games Hanrahan saved involved 2-3 run leads. In addition, Hanrahan had at least 3 saved games in which he gave up at least one run. Third, Hanrahan's ERA is bolstered by a defense that played very well behind him (Defensive Efficiency of .770 behind Hanrahan), whereas the defense did not play as well behind Grilli (Defensive Efficiency of .686 behind Grilli).

If you want a fair comparison between Hammer and Grilli, focus on the things for which they are solely responsible: strikeouts, walks, flyballs v. groundballs, and innings pitched. Grilli and Hanrahan had pretty even IP and GB/FB rates, but Grilli struck out more and walked fewer batters than Hanrahan did. To say that Hammer, despite underperforming Grilli in these categories, was the better of the two based on such circumstantial evidence is suspect, to say the least.

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Last edited by Willton on Mon Dec 31, 2012 1:36 am, edited 2 times in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan reportedly going to Red Sox
PostPosted: Mon Dec 31, 2012 1:32 am 
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PirateParrot wrote:
Barrys Dopers wrote:
Come on IA, you couldn't have watched many games in 2012 if you think Joel was better than Grilli. I don't even need every stat in the book that shows I'm correct.

Dopers, you are taking a small sample, in this case 1 season, and making a blanket statement that Grilli is better than Hammer. As IA pointed out, Grilli was on the trash heap just a couple seasons ago.

Look at Grilli's career...my God he was average on his best day before coming to Pittsburgh. He never had a strikeout rate even CLOSE to what he did last year in Pittsburgh. And everyone is complaining about the HR's with Hammer. He gave up 8. GRILLI GAVE UP 7! The only difference in the two was the walk rate. Hanrahan had one above average year in Washington, before flaming out there. Since coming to Pittsburgh, Hanrahan was DARN good...dominant for large stretches. The walks and HR's will always be something he has to watch out for. And I'm not saying he is going to go to Boston and dominate. I don't think anyone can say for sure. And as a Pirate fan I hope Grilli saves 45 games and K's 125 guys this year. But again, nobody can predict for sure how he will do.

You seem to forget the circumstances that enabled the Pirates to acquire Hammer. Take a look at Hammer's body of work in Washington. Is that indicative of a dominant closer?

If you only want to focus on the good work Hanrahan provided in Pittsburgh, then I suggest you extend Grilli the same courtesy. He's been lights out since arriving in Pittsburgh. It's not fair to look at Grilli's entire career and compare that to a small slice of Hanrahan's career.

No one can predict how either player will pitch with certainty. By your own logic, Hanrahan could blow up and turn into the mediocre pitcher he was in Washington. The question lies in who is more likely to pitch better than the other. And considering that Grilli outperformed Hanrahan last year, I'd say it's fair to bet that Grilli will outperform Hanrahan next year too.

PirateParrot wrote:
I find it funny that most people here are assuming Hammer goes in the tank, and that Melancon will bounce back and Grilli will have a great season(hopefully without the late season fade by the way). Of the 3, Hammer is the one with the best track record, yet everyone is trying to spin it the other way. But your argument is ridiculous. Looking at body of work, Hammer is clearly a better pitcher. And even last year there wasn't the huge discrepancy that you(and others) make it out to be.

A pitcher's entire body of work will not necessarily indicate how the pitcher will pitch next season; it is more reasonable to base expectations on a pitcher's more recent work. Yes, Hammer has had the better career thus far, but recently Grilli has become the better pitcher by any fair measurement.

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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan reportedly going to Red Sox
PostPosted: Tue Jan 01, 2013 1:48 pm 
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Grilli did not finish up so well last season. I wish him the best but am not real confident. When the Buccos went south during the 2nd half of 2112, he had a hand in the demise.... 8-) 8-) 8-)


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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan reportedly going to Red Sox
PostPosted: Wed Jan 02, 2013 8:42 pm 
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Az Bucco fan wrote:
Grilli did not finish up so well last season. I wish him the best but am not real confident. When the Buccos went south during the 2nd half of 2112, he had a hand in the demise.... 8-) 8-) 8-)


23 or 25 players had a hand in the demise. The only 2 players that had a significant better 2nd half last year were Jones and Barmes.


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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan reportedly going to Red Sox
PostPosted: Wed Jan 02, 2013 10:01 pm 
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True story..... 8-) 8-)


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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan reportedly going to Red Sox
PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2013 2:38 am 
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Az Bucco fan wrote:
Grilli did not finish up so well last season. I wish him the best but am not real confident. When the Buccos went south during the 2nd half of 2112, he had a hand in the demise.... 8-) 8-) 8-)

AZ-- great to see you post again. I was dissappointed when you announced your leaving last fall and very glad to see you back posting again. Truth told, I also have lost some interest in the board as things have changed but while I don't post as often, I do read and can say that you have warmed my winter-- thanks for returning.

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