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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan reportedly going to Red Sox
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 2:52 pm 
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None of those guys mentioned are remotely close to Hanrahan's talent and u know that...at least I hope u know that...


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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan reportedly going to Red Sox
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 2:56 pm 
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Grilli was very effective in the eight inning last year. He is mature and appears to be very determined. I expect him to be able to handle the pressure of performing in the ninth.

Hanrahan I could see going either way. He seemed to be on the verge of a meltdown last year. The pressure of pitching in Boston may send him over the edge, or he may get over his nervousness and perform very well. He certainly has the stuff to do that.


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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan reportedly going to Red Sox
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 3:03 pm 
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House of Poe wrote:
None of those guys mentioned are remotely close to Hanrahan's talent and u know that...at least I hope u know that...

Oh, I know that. That's why I'm not cavalierly throwing around the "proven closer" label. I'm judging Hanrahan based on his performance in the areas over which he has control: strikeouts, walks, and groundball/flyball ratio, all of which is tidily wrapped up in the FIP and xFIP (i.e., Fielder Independent Pitching and Expected Fielder Independent Pitching) statistics. In other words, I'm judging Hanrahan based on past performance as a predictor of future performance, and his past performance that indicates that his 2011 was the anomaly and his 2012 was extremely lucky. He's a good reliever, but not so good as to warrant a $7M salary or a higher return than the Pirates received via trade.

If you are as high on Hanrahan as you appear to be, perhaps you should tout Hanrahan based on his actual ability and not because he is a "proven closer." Being a "proven closer" means jack squat, as I indicated upthread.

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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan reportedly going to Red Sox
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 3:22 pm 
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There's a big difference between getting outs in the 7th or 8th innings and getting the last three outs...just like there's more on the line in a September game than there is in a game in May...
Do me a favor and tell me if any of those came remotely close to Hanrahan's save %... also, this is Joel's free agent year and he will want to get paid a ton of benjaimin's...another reason for a bounce back year...
I'm enjoying the debate....and I am grudgingly learning a little...


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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan reportedly going to Red Sox
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 4:06 pm 
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House of Poe wrote:
There's a big difference between getting outs in the 7th or 8th innings and getting the last three outs...just like there's more on the line in a September game than there is in a game in May...
Do me a favor and tell me if any of those came remotely close to Hanrahan's save %... also, this is Joel's free agent year and he will want to get paid a ton of benjaimin's...another reason for a bounce back year...
I'm enjoying the debate....and I am grudgingly learning a little...

Courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com
Code:
"Proven Closer"  Year  Team  Save%

Shingo Takatsu   2005   CHW   95%
Shawn Chacon     2004   COL   80%
Billy Koch       1999   TOR   89%
Billy Koch       2000   TOR   87%
Billy Koch       2001   TOR   82%
Billy Koch       2002   OAK   88%
Dan Kolb         2003   MIL   91%
Dan Kolb         2004   MIL   89%
Todd Jones       1997   DET   86%
Todd Jones       1998   DET   88%
Todd Jones       1999   DET   86%
Todd Jones       2000   DET   91%
Todd Jones       2005   FLA   89%
Todd Jones       2006   DET   86%

Joel Hanrahan    2011   PIT   91%
Joel Hanrahan    2012   PIT   90%


Admittedly, I should exclude Shawn Chacon because everybody and their brother knew he was bad. In addition, I will note that Todd Jones was very good for the Marlins in 2006. But there you have it.

Feel free to draw your own conclusions. My conclusion: saves and save percentage are not an accurate reflection of a relief pitcher's ability to prevent runs in the final inning of a game.

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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan reportedly going to Red Sox
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 6:37 pm 
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House of Poe wrote:
There are no numbers in exsistence that quantify the psychological difference between getting three outs in the middle of a game and getting the final three outs of a game.
Nobody can say with factual basis that Grilli will be able to replace Hanrahan as a closer because nobody knows how he's going to handle the role.
As far as Hanrahan's performance last year, he left his pitches up at times and was erratic control wise, but he still got it done. Is this a trend? No because anybody can have an off year...he might have been hurt or he might have had off the field problems...nobody knows...

There was no difference before some sportswriter invented the save statistic, and for a couple of decades afterwards.

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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan reportedly going to Red Sox
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 6:42 pm 
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House of Poe wrote:
There's a big difference between getting outs in the 7th or 8th innings and getting the last three outs...just like there's more on the line in a September game than there is in a game in May...

I call bullshit. In many games last year Grilli faced tougher hitters in the eighth than Hanrahan saw in the ninth. If you are suggesting that the same hitter is better in the ninth inning of close games than at any other time, bring on your evidence.

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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan reportedly going to Red Sox
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 7:04 pm 
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sisyphus wrote:
House of Poe wrote:
There's a big difference between getting outs in the 7th or 8th innings and getting the last three outs...just like there's more on the line in a September game than there is in a game in May...

I call bullshit. In many games last year Grilli faced tougher hitters in the eighth than Hanrahan saw in the ninth. If you are suggesting that the same hitter is better in the ninth inning of close games than at any other time, bring on your evidence.


His point does not relate to the hitters faced by the pitcher, but rather the pressure felt by the pitcher attempting to close out the game.

I know it irks the saber crowd, but the truth is that baseball players are people. And different people react to pressure differently. Some people maintain their level of performance in the face of extreme pressure. Some coaches, like Mike Tomlin, call this have a "slow heartbeat." Other people get a little tight, grip the ball a bit harder, and struggle to maintain their normal level of performance in key pressurized moments.

It's possible that Grilli will try to throw a little harder when he's protecting a 1-run lead in the ninth inning of a game before a full house at PNC Park. We don't know. I saw him struggle a bit in a closing situation at PNC last year against Kansas City. It's not bullshit; it's a possibility. What some people call "proven closers" at least have a track record of performing under that level of pressure. There's some value in that, even if it's limited and not as important as overall performance.


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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan reportedly going to Red Sox
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 7:25 pm 
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J_C_Steel wrote:
sisyphus wrote:
House of Poe wrote:
There's a big difference between getting outs in the 7th or 8th innings and getting the last three outs...just like there's more on the line in a September game than there is in a game in May...

I call bullshit. In many games last year Grilli faced tougher hitters in the eighth than Hanrahan saw in the ninth. If you are suggesting that the same hitter is better in the ninth inning of close games than at any other time, bring on your evidence.


His point does not relate to the hitters faced by the pitcher, but rather the pressure felt by the pitcher attempting to close out the game.

I know it irks the saber crowd, but the truth is that baseball players are people. And different people react to pressure differently. Some people maintain their level of performance in the face of extreme pressure. Some coaches, like Mike Tomlin, call this have a "slow heartbeat." Other people get a little tight, grip the ball a bit harder, and struggle to maintain their normal level of performance in key pressurized moments.

It's possible that Grilli will try to throw a little harder when he's protecting a 1-run lead in the ninth inning of a game before a full house at PNC Park. We don't know. I saw him struggle a bit in a closing situation at PNC last year against Kansas City. It's not bullshit; it's a possibility. What some people call "proven closers" at least have a track record of performing under that level of pressure. There's some value in that, even if it's limited and not as important as overall performance.


Come on JC, its tougher to come in with runners on base and get outs to prevent a run than it is to start a inning with no one on base. The 9th inning mental game might have some small effect, but Joel had no proven ability prior to 2011 when he got his shot. Melancon has proven ability in the 9th while Grilli is clearly better than Joel as a pitcher.

Its funny that anyone outside of Pittsburgh who isn't applying emotion to this thinks the Bucs at worst made an even trade. Many, including some in Boston think we will win handily.

Its the same thing we saw with Russell Martin, any outside person saw the top FA catcher with a good contract. Around town we attach 20 years of failure to the move. Someone asked Dave Cameron why teh Pittsburgh local press didn't like the move and his reply was spot on "bitterness".

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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan reportedly going to Red Sox
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 7:35 pm 
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Barrys Dopers wrote:
Grilli is clearly better than Joel as a pitcher.


Wait...what?!?

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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan reportedly going to Red Sox
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 8:30 pm 
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IA Pirate wrote:
Barrys Dopers wrote:
Grilli is clearly better than Joel as a pitcher.


Wait...what?!?


Please provide any argument that Joel Hanrahan is better than Jason Grilli. Grilli K's more, BB's less, and is harder to hit.

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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan reportedly going to Red Sox
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 9:24 pm 
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Barrys Dopers wrote:
Please provide any argument that Joel Hanrahan is better than Jason Grilli. Grilli K's more, BB's less, and is harder to hit.


You have got to be kidding me. First, Grilli was recently cut by the Phillies. Last season alone the ERA's were 2.72 and 2.91, respectively. Hammer was 36 of 40 in save opportunities while Grilli was 2 for 5. I respect your viewpoint on many things but this is just plain silly.

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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan reportedly going to Red Sox
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 9:39 pm 
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IA Pirate wrote:
Barrys Dopers wrote:
Please provide any argument that Joel Hanrahan is better than Jason Grilli. Grilli K's more, BB's less, and is harder to hit.


You have got to be kidding me. First, Grilli was recently cut by the Phillies. Last season alone the ERA's were 2.72 and 2.91, respectively. Hammer was 36 of 40 in save opportunities while Grilli was 2 for 5. I respect your viewpoint on many things but this is just plain silly.


:lol:

Yikes.


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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan reportedly going to Red Sox
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 10:54 pm 
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Adding this in quickly, sorry if posted elsewhere:

http://www.overthemonster.com/2012/12/2 ... ox-pirates

Quote:
Joel Hanrahan and Mark Melancon had very different seasons in 2012. But there are reasons to believe they will not be so far apart in 2013, and that the Red Sox just gave up Jerry Sands and two years of team control for nothing.

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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan reportedly going to Red Sox
PostPosted: Sat Dec 29, 2012 2:16 am 
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Okay...so Grilli is a better pitcher than Hanrahan and it's tougher to pitch in the 8th inning than it is to get the final three outs of a game...gotcha.
Excuse me bartender...I'll have whatever these guys are drinking please...


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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan reportedly going to Red Sox
PostPosted: Sat Dec 29, 2012 11:04 am 
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IA Pirate wrote:
Barrys Dopers wrote:
Please provide any argument that Joel Hanrahan is better than Jason Grilli. Grilli K's more, BB's less, and is harder to hit.


You have got to be kidding me. First, Grilli was recently cut by the Phillies. Last season alone the ERA's were 2.72 and 2.91, respectively. Hammer was 36 of 40 in save opportunities while Grilli was 2 for 5. I respect your viewpoint on many things but this is just plain silly.


Come on IA, you couldn't have watched many games in 2012 if you think Joel was better than Grilli. I don't even need every stat in the book that shows I'm correct.

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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan reportedly going to Red Sox
PostPosted: Sat Dec 29, 2012 12:50 pm 
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Barrys Dopers wrote:
IA Pirate wrote:
Barrys Dopers wrote:
Please provide any argument that Joel Hanrahan is better than Jason Grilli. Grilli K's more, BB's less, and is harder to hit.


You have got to be kidding me. First, Grilli was recently cut by the Phillies. Last season alone the ERA's were 2.72 and 2.91, respectively. Hammer was 36 of 40 in save opportunities while Grilli was 2 for 5. I respect your viewpoint on many things but this is just plain silly.


Come on IA, you couldn't have watched many games in 2012 if you think Joel was better than Grilli. I don't even need every stat in the book that shows I'm correct.

Dopers, you are taking a small sample, in this case 1 season, and making a blanket statement that Grilli is better than Hammer. As IA pointed out, Grilli was on the trash heap just a couple seasons ago.

Look at Grilli's career...my God he was average on his best day before coming to Pittsburgh. He never had a strikeout rate even CLOSE to what he did last year in Pittsburgh. And everyone is complaining about the HR's with Hammer. He gave up 8. GRILLI GAVE UP 7! The only difference in the two was the walk rate. Hanrahan had one above average year in Washington, before flaming out there. Since coming to Pittsburgh, Hanrahan was DARN good...dominant for large stretches. The walks and HR's will always be something he has to watch out for. And I'm not saying he is going to go to Boston and dominate. I don't think anyone can say for sure. And as a Pirate fan I hope Grilli saves 45 games and K's 125 guys this year. But again, nobody can predict for sure how he will do.

I find it funny that most people here are assuming Hammer goes in the tank, and that Melancon will bounce back and Grilli will have a great season(hopefully without the late season fade by the way). Of the 3, Hammer is the one with the best track record, yet everyone is trying to spin it the other way. But your argument is ridiculous. Looking at body of work, Hammer is clearly a better pitcher. And even last year there wasn't the huge discrepancy that you(and others) make it out to be.


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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan reportedly going to Red Sox
PostPosted: Sat Dec 29, 2012 2:50 pm 
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House of Poe wrote:
Okay...so Grilli is a better pitcher than Hanrahan and it's tougher to pitch in the 8th inning than it is to get the final three outs of a game...gotcha.
Excuse me bartender...I'll have whatever these guys are drinking please...

Feel free to point out the post which states it's tougher to pitch in the 8th than in the 9th.

It's always a lot easier to post a snarky reply when you get to make up what the other guy says.

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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan reportedly going to Red Sox
PostPosted: Sat Dec 29, 2012 3:06 pm 
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PirateParrot wrote:
Look at Grilli's career...my God he was average on his best day before coming to Pittsburgh.


There's a glass half empty/full dilemma concerning Grilli's career.

On one hand you look at it and say, 'six different teams in ten big-league years... what's wrong with him?'

Then on the other you have to say, 'Well, he's hung around this long and convinced six different teams he's useful, so... he must be doing something(s) right!' :D

PirateParrot wrote:
I find it funny that most people here are assuming Hammer goes in the tank, and that Melancon will bounce back and Grilli will have a great season.


It is a classic case of homer bias. Still, it's not totally illogical and we Pirate fans need all the optimism we can get! :D

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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan reportedly going to Red Sox
PostPosted: Sat Dec 29, 2012 4:58 pm 
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PirateParrot wrote:
Barrys Dopers wrote:

Come on IA, you couldn't have watched many games in 2012 if you think Joel was better than Grilli. I don't even need every stat in the book that shows I'm correct.

Dopers, you are taking a small sample, in this case 1 season, and making a blanket statement that Grilli is better than Hammer. As IA pointed out, Grilli was on the trash heap just a couple seasons ago.

Look at Grilli's career...my God he was average on his best day before coming to Pittsburgh. He never had a strikeout rate even CLOSE to what he did last year in Pittsburgh. And everyone is complaining about the HR's with Hammer. He gave up 8. GRILLI GAVE UP 7! The only difference in the two was the walk rate. Hanrahan had one above average year in Washington, before flaming out there. Since coming to Pittsburgh, Hanrahan was DARN good...dominant for large stretches. The walks and HR's will always be something he has to watch out for. And I'm not saying he is going to go to Boston and dominate. I don't think anyone can say for sure. And as a Pirate fan I hope Grilli saves 45 games and K's 125 guys this year. But again, nobody can predict for sure how he will do.

I find it funny that most people here are assuming Hammer goes in the tank, and that Melancon will bounce back and Grilli will have a great season(hopefully without the late season fade by the way). Of the 3, Hammer is the one with the best track record, yet everyone is trying to spin it the other way. But your argument is ridiculous. Looking at body of work, Hammer is clearly a better pitcher. And even last year there wasn't the huge discrepancy that you(and others) make it out to be.


PP, I could care less what they have done in the past. I didn't say Grilli was better than Joel over his career. I am interested in who they are now and Joel is a guy who walks a ton and gives up lots of flyballs, actually he has been that guy his entire career except for 2011. Hanrahan got by in 2012 on a really low babip against of .225 (his career norm is .306). Look at Joel's stats and tell me 2011 doesn't look like a fluke. He threw harder, K'd way less and had almost no walks or HR against.

Judging Grilli on his early days before he improved his fastball is silly. He has been the same dominant guy for two years and he K's more batters and doesn't walk 4-5 per 9IP like Joel. Grilli was great last year with a normal babip against of .309. Even Bill James projects Grilli better than Joel. BTW the gap last year was cavernous Grilli FIP was 2.80, Joel's was 4.45.

The beauty of this is that we will see who is better soon enough.

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