Proud fans of a 128-year old tradition

It is currently Thu Oct 30, 2014 2:29 pm

All times are UTC - 4 hours [ DST ]




Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 39 posts ]  Go to page 1, 2  Next
Author Message
 Post subject: Re: Today's Bucco hypothetical SP's
PostPosted: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:02 pm 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Sat Apr 26, 2008 5:06 pm
Posts: 3397
Location: Westmoreland County Pennsylvania
I might get beat up over this statement, but I have very little confidence in JMac for next year. I thought he was the first big collapse of the Pirate season last year. In other words, he was the poster boy for the Pirate collpase. At least I viewed it as such.

_________________
Image...You can observe a lot by just watching. -Yogi Berra


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Today's Bucco hypothetical SP's
PostPosted: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:59 pm 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Sat Apr 26, 2008 6:10 pm
Posts: 2172
bassoondirector wrote:
I might get beat up over this statement, but I have very little confidence in JMac for next year. I thought he was the first big collapse of the Pirate season last year. In other words, he was the poster boy for the Pirate collpase. At least I viewed it as such.

It seemed like he got tired. Not sure if that is the case, or even part of what his problem was...just a thought I had watching him. I think he will find his way back, but your point is a good one. Like I said above, there are a ton of question marks for this pitching staff this year. Yet it seems like acquiring pitching hasn't been made a real strong priority. Time will tell, I guess...


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Today's Bucco hypothetical SP's
PostPosted: Sun Dec 09, 2012 12:40 am 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Sat Apr 26, 2008 6:44 pm
Posts: 10727
Barrys Dopers wrote:
You are correct, he had a skull fracture, but he is 100% now.

Good for him. I recalled that his injury was serious and the he did not return to pitch after getting hit.

I always root for pitchers who suffer getting hit in the face or head by a line drive back up the middle. It is one of many reasons that MLB can NEVER go to metal or composite bats - a pitcher would get killed.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Today's Bucco hypothetical SP's
PostPosted: Mon Dec 10, 2012 11:44 am 
Offline
 Profile

Joined: Mon Apr 28, 2008 10:46 am
Posts: 3656
Location: Economy, PA
bassoondirector wrote:
I might get beat up over this statement, but I have very little confidence in JMac for next year. I thought he was the first big collapse of the Pirate season last year. In other words, he was the poster boy for the Pirate collpase. At least I viewed it as such.


Don't worry, you won't get beat up. Nobody has confidence in JMac. He has never pitched effectively for a full season, so it is logical to expect more of the same.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Today's Bucco hypothetical SP's
PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 12:37 pm 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Mon Apr 06, 2009 5:46 pm
Posts: 5117
Location: Washington, DC
With Kevin Correia getting 2 years and $10 million from the Twins, the mistake the Pirates made in not retaining Jeff Karstens for $3.8 million or so becomes even more obvious.

Right now, the Pirates' rotation is pretty bad. It features A.J. Burnett and Wandy Rodriguez, both of whom are essentially #3 starters. After that, you have the spectacularly inconsistent James McDonald, followed by... Kyle McPherson and Jeff Locke. Looks like a 68-win team to me!

If the Pirates want to field even an AVERAGE rotation, they'll need to either (1) trade Hanrahan for a good to very good starting pitcher, which seems highly unlikely at this point, and/or (2) sign one or two of the top remaining free agent pitchers (Anibal Sanchez, Kyle Lohse, Shawn Marcum, Francisco Liriano).

It appears that Sanchez and Lohse are out of the Pirates' price range, so that leaves a slightly above-average starter like Marcum or a crazy inconsistent lefty like Liriano. This is not a good situation, folks. And part of it could have been relieved by simply hanging on to Karstens.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Today's Bucco hypothetical SP's
PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 2:40 pm 
Offline
User avatar
 WWW  Profile

Joined: Fri Jul 24, 2009 3:06 pm
Posts: 1394
Location: A Pond or Lake Near You
AJ might be a #3 starter in your book, but he sure pitched like an ace last year.

_________________
Kevin
Sensorcon


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Today's Bucco hypothetical SP's
PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 3:18 pm 
Offline
 Profile

Joined: Mon Apr 28, 2008 10:46 am
Posts: 3656
Location: Economy, PA
The Pirates need to start growing their own starting pitchers. They are never going to be truly competitive until they can do that.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Today's Bucco hypothetical SP's
PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 5:53 pm 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Mon Apr 06, 2009 5:46 pm
Posts: 5117
Location: Washington, DC
Rochester wrote:
AJ might be a #3 starter in your book, but he sure pitched like an ace last year.


He pitched like a solid #2 pitcher, that's for sure. But I wouldn't put a 3.51 ERA and 1.9 WAR at "ace" level.

What do you expect in 2013? I don't think anyone expects Burnett to be better than he was in 2012. That's why it's fairly safe to project him as a good #3 pitcher with, say, a 3.70 ERA and 1.5 WAR.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Today's Bucco hypothetical SP's
PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 6:51 pm 
Offline
User avatar
 WWW  Profile

Joined: Fri Jul 24, 2009 3:06 pm
Posts: 1394
Location: A Pond or Lake Near You
J_C_Steel wrote:
Rochester wrote:
AJ might be a #3 starter in your book, but he sure pitched like an ace last year.


He pitched like a solid #2 pitcher, that's for sure. But I wouldn't put a 3.51 ERA and 1.9 WAR at "ace" level.

What do you expect in 2013? I don't think anyone expects Burnett to be better than he was in 2012. That's why it's fairly safe to project him as a good #3 pitcher with, say, a 3.70 ERA and 1.5 WAR.


My expectation is that he maintains. He had a couple of real hack jobs that inflated that ERA quite a bit (although WAR is WAR). He also took 3 no hitters into the twilight innings. Maybe the problem is that my expectations of a staff ace have become low over the years :)

_________________
Kevin
Sensorcon


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Today's Bucco hypothetical SP's
PostPosted: Thu Dec 20, 2012 11:51 am 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2010 1:50 pm
Posts: 3879
Location: Glenshaw, PA
Looks like the Cubs got Villanueva for 2 years and $10 million. The Porcello trade seems like the best option (unless of course they seriously want to move Smyly instead). Hanrahan plus a C prospect and get'r done.

_________________
Well NH did get Cutch signed, but what have you done for me lately?


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Today's Bucco hypothetical SP's
PostPosted: Thu Dec 20, 2012 12:10 pm 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Sat Apr 26, 2008 6:10 pm
Posts: 2172
Barrys Dopers wrote:
Looks like the Cubs got Villanueva for 2 years and $10 million. The Porcello trade seems like the best option (unless of course they seriously want to move Smyly instead). Hanrahan plus a C prospect and get'r done.

Villanueva would have been a good gamble. Are you sold on Porcello? I like that he is young, and should grow...just not sure he'll grow in the right direction! My fear is they are going to get pushed aside by another team with more to offer for Porcello. The pitching options are starting to dwindle...


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Today's Bucco hypothetical SP's
PostPosted: Thu Dec 20, 2012 12:42 pm 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Sun Apr 27, 2008 2:11 pm
Posts: 5830
Location: 120 miles west of Iowa City
JC -
With all due respect, I find it interesting that you are being critical of Pirate management regarding a decision that they made before Karstens has thrown a single pitch in 2013, let alone completing the entire season. You have consistently written that people should not evaluate a particular acquisition, draft, signing, etc. based upon what was known at the time of that decision . . . you have consistently claimed that it is the RESULT that counts. So . . . to be consistent with your prior commentary, I would expect you to be all over NH's case if he signed Karstens for $3.8 and Karstens ended up pitching only 30 innings because of injury. Similarly, if Karstens posted a 6.00+ ERA, you'd be all over NH and his staff for not accurately assessing the situation.

NH has admitted - repeatedly - that they took a risk. He has admitted - repeatedly - that the decision may turn out to be a mistake and that it is a bit of a gamble.

I trust that, if Karstens has a bad year, that you will be wholly consistent with your prior analysis and admit that NH's decision was dead on accurate and that he should be commended for not paying $3.8M on a player who didn't perform. Am I right? Or . . . are you going to stick with your current line of thought and say that NH's decision should be evaluated without the benefit of hindsight?

[quote="J_C_Steel"]With Kevin Correia getting 2 years and $10 million from the Twins, the mistake the Pirates made in not retaining Jeff Karstens for $3.8 million or so becomes even more obvious.

Right now, the Pirates' rotation is pretty bad. It features A.J. Burnett and Wandy Rodriguez, both of whom are essentially #3 starters. After that, you have the spectacularly inconsistent James McDonald, followed by... Kyle McPherson and Jeff Locke. Looks like a 68-win team to me!

If the Pirates want to field even an AVERAGE rotation, they'll need to either (1) trade Hanrahan for a good to very good starting pitcher, which seems highly unlikely at this point, and/or (2) sign one or two of the top remaining free agent pitchers (Anibal Sanchez, Kyle Lohse, Shawn Marcum, Francisco Liriano).

It appears that Sanchez and Lohse are out of the Pirates' price range, so that leaves a slightly above-average starter like Marcum or a crazy inconsistent lefty like Liriano. This is not a good situation, folks. And part of it could have been relieved by simply hanging on to Karstens.[/quote

_________________
Reflexively, obsessively and tastelessly submitted,
No. 9
Obsessive proponent of situational bunting and 2 strike hitting approaches, reflexively pro-catchers calling good games and tasteless proponent of the value of a RBI.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Today's Bucco hypothetical SP's
PostPosted: Thu Dec 20, 2012 1:12 pm 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2010 1:50 pm
Posts: 3879
Location: Glenshaw, PA
PirateParrot wrote:
Barrys Dopers wrote:
Looks like the Cubs got Villanueva for 2 years and $10 million. The Porcello trade seems like the best option (unless of course they seriously want to move Smyly instead). Hanrahan plus a C prospect and get'r done.

Villanueva would have been a good gamble. Are you sold on Porcello? I like that he is young, and should grow...just not sure he'll grow in the right direction! My fear is they are going to get pushed aside by another team with more to offer for Porcello. The pitching options are starting to dwindle...


I am very sold on Porcello. He is a groundball machine who has played with a bad defense in Detroit. His FIP has been 4.31, 4.06, and 3.91 the last three years and his xFIP has been almost the same. He has 7.6 WAR the last three years and will be 24 on opening day with 3 years of arbitration control. He has two fastballs, a change, and a slider and most of his problem has been with the slider. If he stays away from it more he could really take off - http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.ph ... os-slider/

There is also the whole NL bump due to facing weaker lineups and the pitcher. I think he would settle in as a 3 WAR SP immediately with some limited upside for more. This opportunity is similar to the Burnett chance last year. NH knows (or at least he should) this is the guy to get and I am confident he will get it done.

_________________
Well NH did get Cutch signed, but what have you done for me lately?


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Today's Bucco hypothetical SP's
PostPosted: Thu Dec 20, 2012 1:37 pm 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Wed Feb 15, 2012 12:27 pm
Posts: 412
Location: Morgantown, WV, via Charleston, WV
PirateParrot wrote:
Are you sold on Porcello? I like that he is young, and should grow...just not sure he'll grow in the right direction! My fear is they are going to get pushed aside by another team with more to offer for Porcello. The pitching options are starting to dwindle...


As pointed out by you and others, our options are dwindling. So, based on that, then "yes" I'm sold on Porcello. Just worried about how much we have to give up to get him at this point.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Today's Bucco hypothetical SP's
PostPosted: Thu Dec 20, 2012 1:44 pm 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Sat Apr 26, 2008 6:10 pm
Posts: 2172
Barrys Dopers wrote:
PirateParrot wrote:
Barrys Dopers wrote:
Looks like the Cubs got Villanueva for 2 years and $10 million. The Porcello trade seems like the best option (unless of course they seriously want to move Smyly instead). Hanrahan plus a C prospect and get'r done.

Villanueva would have been a good gamble. Are you sold on Porcello? I like that he is young, and should grow...just not sure he'll grow in the right direction! My fear is they are going to get pushed aside by another team with more to offer for Porcello. The pitching options are starting to dwindle...


I am very sold on Porcello. He is a groundball machine who has played with a bad defense in Detroit. His FIP has been 4.31, 4.06, and 3.91 the last three years and his xFIP has been almost the same. He has 7.6 WAR the last three years and will be 24 on opening day with 3 years of arbitration control. He has two fastballs, a change, and a slider and most of his problem has been with the slider. If he stays away from it more he could really take off - http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.ph ... os-slider/

There is also the whole NL bump due to facing weaker lineups and the pitcher. I think he would settle in as a 3 WAR SP immediately with some limited upside for more. This opportunity is similar to the Burnett chance last year. NH knows (or at least he should) this is the guy to get and I am confident he will get it done.

Yea, I'm in line with that thinking. I think my doubt comes from his pedestrian strikeout numbers...that always makes me a bit nervous. Your last sentence did make me chuckle. I hope he gets this move done...confident??? eh....


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Today's Bucco hypothetical SP's
PostPosted: Thu Dec 20, 2012 2:16 pm 
Offline
 Profile

Joined: Sun Dec 21, 2008 8:42 pm
Posts: 915
PirateParrot wrote:
Barrys Dopers wrote:
Seriously BMac gets only $15.5 million for 2 years! NH asleep at the switch.

Spent too much on our new .211 hitting catcher :D


That is what 700+ OPS with decent Defense costs now days.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Today's Bucco hypothetical SP's
PostPosted: Thu Dec 20, 2012 3:28 pm 
Offline
 Profile

Joined: Sat Apr 26, 2008 4:26 pm
Posts: 3006
Barrys Dopers wrote:
NH knows (or at least he should) this is the guy to get and I am confident he will get it done.



Really??


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Today's Bucco hypothetical SP's
PostPosted: Thu Dec 20, 2012 3:53 pm 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2010 1:50 pm
Posts: 3879
Location: Glenshaw, PA
BBF wrote:
Barrys Dopers wrote:
NH knows (or at least he should) this is the guy to get and I am confident he will get it done.



Really??



Yes, he has executed these common sense deals fairly well the last few years.

_________________
Well NH did get Cutch signed, but what have you done for me lately?


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Today's Bucco hypothetical SP's
PostPosted: Fri Dec 21, 2012 1:46 am 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Sat Apr 26, 2008 6:44 pm
Posts: 10727
Porcello is a target, and one I hope the Pirates can get. His K totals have improved each of the past 3 seasons (from 4.64, to 5.14, to 5.46 per 9 IP). His velocity last season was north of 92 mph.

If he moves to the Pirates, with a much better infield defense, and facing pitchers 2-3x per start, his ERA plummets. That is why a stat like xFIP is relevant.

Porcello's xFIP the past 3 seasons: 4.24. 4.02, 3.89.

He is young, getting better, a groundball maven, with improving velocity.

I am 100% for obtaining Porcello.

One report indicated that the Tigers were also alternatively shopping Drew Smyly.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/12/t ... smyly.html

Why, I have no idea. He would be a great addition. Lefty, deals in the 90's, great stuff, pitched well last year for the Tigers in the AL (3.99 ERA, 94 K's in 99 IP). He is just 23, and with his limited ML time, would have at least and maybe 6 years of control for the team that gets him.

Either one would be the Pirates No. 2 or 3 immediately.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Today's Bucco hypothetical SP's
PostPosted: Fri Dec 21, 2012 11:32 am 
Offline
User avatar
 WWW  Profile

Joined: Thu Feb 23, 2012 1:30 pm
Posts: 2247
Location: Naples, FL
Sweet...I hope they want our deceptively shaky closer!

_________________
AAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Top
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 39 posts ]  Go to page 1, 2  Next

All times are UTC - 4 hours [ DST ]


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Bing [Bot] and 7 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Search for:
Jump to:  
Powered by phpBB © 2000, 2002, 2005, 2007 phpBB Group  
Design By Poker Bandits