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 Post subject: Re: Today's Bucco hypothetical SP's
PostPosted: Thu Dec 20, 2012 12:10 pm 
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Barrys Dopers wrote:
Looks like the Cubs got Villanueva for 2 years and $10 million. The Porcello trade seems like the best option (unless of course they seriously want to move Smyly instead). Hanrahan plus a C prospect and get'r done.

Villanueva would have been a good gamble. Are you sold on Porcello? I like that he is young, and should grow...just not sure he'll grow in the right direction! My fear is they are going to get pushed aside by another team with more to offer for Porcello. The pitching options are starting to dwindle...


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 Post subject: Re: Today's Bucco hypothetical SP's
PostPosted: Thu Dec 20, 2012 12:42 pm 
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JC -
With all due respect, I find it interesting that you are being critical of Pirate management regarding a decision that they made before Karstens has thrown a single pitch in 2013, let alone completing the entire season. You have consistently written that people should not evaluate a particular acquisition, draft, signing, etc. based upon what was known at the time of that decision . . . you have consistently claimed that it is the RESULT that counts. So . . . to be consistent with your prior commentary, I would expect you to be all over NH's case if he signed Karstens for $3.8 and Karstens ended up pitching only 30 innings because of injury. Similarly, if Karstens posted a 6.00+ ERA, you'd be all over NH and his staff for not accurately assessing the situation.

NH has admitted - repeatedly - that they took a risk. He has admitted - repeatedly - that the decision may turn out to be a mistake and that it is a bit of a gamble.

I trust that, if Karstens has a bad year, that you will be wholly consistent with your prior analysis and admit that NH's decision was dead on accurate and that he should be commended for not paying $3.8M on a player who didn't perform. Am I right? Or . . . are you going to stick with your current line of thought and say that NH's decision should be evaluated without the benefit of hindsight?

[quote="J_C_Steel"]With Kevin Correia getting 2 years and $10 million from the Twins, the mistake the Pirates made in not retaining Jeff Karstens for $3.8 million or so becomes even more obvious.

Right now, the Pirates' rotation is pretty bad. It features A.J. Burnett and Wandy Rodriguez, both of whom are essentially #3 starters. After that, you have the spectacularly inconsistent James McDonald, followed by... Kyle McPherson and Jeff Locke. Looks like a 68-win team to me!

If the Pirates want to field even an AVERAGE rotation, they'll need to either (1) trade Hanrahan for a good to very good starting pitcher, which seems highly unlikely at this point, and/or (2) sign one or two of the top remaining free agent pitchers (Anibal Sanchez, Kyle Lohse, Shawn Marcum, Francisco Liriano).

It appears that Sanchez and Lohse are out of the Pirates' price range, so that leaves a slightly above-average starter like Marcum or a crazy inconsistent lefty like Liriano. This is not a good situation, folks. And part of it could have been relieved by simply hanging on to Karstens.[/quote

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 Post subject: Re: Today's Bucco hypothetical SP's
PostPosted: Thu Dec 20, 2012 1:12 pm 
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PirateParrot wrote:
Barrys Dopers wrote:
Looks like the Cubs got Villanueva for 2 years and $10 million. The Porcello trade seems like the best option (unless of course they seriously want to move Smyly instead). Hanrahan plus a C prospect and get'r done.

Villanueva would have been a good gamble. Are you sold on Porcello? I like that he is young, and should grow...just not sure he'll grow in the right direction! My fear is they are going to get pushed aside by another team with more to offer for Porcello. The pitching options are starting to dwindle...


I am very sold on Porcello. He is a groundball machine who has played with a bad defense in Detroit. His FIP has been 4.31, 4.06, and 3.91 the last three years and his xFIP has been almost the same. He has 7.6 WAR the last three years and will be 24 on opening day with 3 years of arbitration control. He has two fastballs, a change, and a slider and most of his problem has been with the slider. If he stays away from it more he could really take off - http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.ph ... os-slider/

There is also the whole NL bump due to facing weaker lineups and the pitcher. I think he would settle in as a 3 WAR SP immediately with some limited upside for more. This opportunity is similar to the Burnett chance last year. NH knows (or at least he should) this is the guy to get and I am confident he will get it done.

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 Post subject: Re: Today's Bucco hypothetical SP's
PostPosted: Thu Dec 20, 2012 1:37 pm 
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PirateParrot wrote:
Are you sold on Porcello? I like that he is young, and should grow...just not sure he'll grow in the right direction! My fear is they are going to get pushed aside by another team with more to offer for Porcello. The pitching options are starting to dwindle...


As pointed out by you and others, our options are dwindling. So, based on that, then "yes" I'm sold on Porcello. Just worried about how much we have to give up to get him at this point.


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 Post subject: Re: Today's Bucco hypothetical SP's
PostPosted: Thu Dec 20, 2012 1:44 pm 
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Barrys Dopers wrote:
PirateParrot wrote:
Barrys Dopers wrote:
Looks like the Cubs got Villanueva for 2 years and $10 million. The Porcello trade seems like the best option (unless of course they seriously want to move Smyly instead). Hanrahan plus a C prospect and get'r done.

Villanueva would have been a good gamble. Are you sold on Porcello? I like that he is young, and should grow...just not sure he'll grow in the right direction! My fear is they are going to get pushed aside by another team with more to offer for Porcello. The pitching options are starting to dwindle...


I am very sold on Porcello. He is a groundball machine who has played with a bad defense in Detroit. His FIP has been 4.31, 4.06, and 3.91 the last three years and his xFIP has been almost the same. He has 7.6 WAR the last three years and will be 24 on opening day with 3 years of arbitration control. He has two fastballs, a change, and a slider and most of his problem has been with the slider. If he stays away from it more he could really take off - http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.ph ... os-slider/

There is also the whole NL bump due to facing weaker lineups and the pitcher. I think he would settle in as a 3 WAR SP immediately with some limited upside for more. This opportunity is similar to the Burnett chance last year. NH knows (or at least he should) this is the guy to get and I am confident he will get it done.

Yea, I'm in line with that thinking. I think my doubt comes from his pedestrian strikeout numbers...that always makes me a bit nervous. Your last sentence did make me chuckle. I hope he gets this move done...confident??? eh....


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 Post subject: Re: Today's Bucco hypothetical SP's
PostPosted: Thu Dec 20, 2012 2:16 pm 
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PirateParrot wrote:
Barrys Dopers wrote:
Seriously BMac gets only $15.5 million for 2 years! NH asleep at the switch.

Spent too much on our new .211 hitting catcher :D


That is what 700+ OPS with decent Defense costs now days.


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 Post subject: Re: Today's Bucco hypothetical SP's
PostPosted: Thu Dec 20, 2012 3:28 pm 
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Barrys Dopers wrote:
NH knows (or at least he should) this is the guy to get and I am confident he will get it done.



Really??


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 Post subject: Re: Today's Bucco hypothetical SP's
PostPosted: Thu Dec 20, 2012 3:53 pm 
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BBF wrote:
Barrys Dopers wrote:
NH knows (or at least he should) this is the guy to get and I am confident he will get it done.



Really??



Yes, he has executed these common sense deals fairly well the last few years.

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 Post subject: Re: Today's Bucco hypothetical SP's
PostPosted: Fri Dec 21, 2012 1:46 am 
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Porcello is a target, and one I hope the Pirates can get. His K totals have improved each of the past 3 seasons (from 4.64, to 5.14, to 5.46 per 9 IP). His velocity last season was north of 92 mph.

If he moves to the Pirates, with a much better infield defense, and facing pitchers 2-3x per start, his ERA plummets. That is why a stat like xFIP is relevant.

Porcello's xFIP the past 3 seasons: 4.24. 4.02, 3.89.

He is young, getting better, a groundball maven, with improving velocity.

I am 100% for obtaining Porcello.

One report indicated that the Tigers were also alternatively shopping Drew Smyly.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/12/t ... smyly.html

Why, I have no idea. He would be a great addition. Lefty, deals in the 90's, great stuff, pitched well last year for the Tigers in the AL (3.99 ERA, 94 K's in 99 IP). He is just 23, and with his limited ML time, would have at least and maybe 6 years of control for the team that gets him.

Either one would be the Pirates No. 2 or 3 immediately.


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 Post subject: Re: Today's Bucco hypothetical SP's
PostPosted: Fri Dec 21, 2012 11:32 am 
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Sweet...I hope they want our deceptively shaky closer!

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 Post subject: Re: Today's Bucco hypothetical SP's
PostPosted: Fri Dec 21, 2012 12:50 pm 
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Bucfan wrote:
Porcello is a target, and one I hope the Pirates can get. His K totals have improved each of the past 3 seasons (from 4.64, to 5.14, to 5.46 per 9 IP). His velocity last season was north of 92 mph.

If he moves to the Pirates, with a much better infield defense, and facing pitchers 2-3x per start, his ERA plummets. That is why a stat like xFIP is relevant.

Porcello's xFIP the past 3 seasons: 4.24. 4.02, 3.89.

He is young, getting better, a groundball maven, with improving velocity.

I am 100% for obtaining Porcello.

One report indicated that the Tigers were also alternatively shopping Drew Smyly.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/12/t ... smyly.html

Why, I have no idea. He would be a great addition. Lefty, deals in the 90's, great stuff, pitched well last year for the Tigers in the AL (3.99 ERA, 94 K's in 99 IP). He is just 23, and with his limited ML time, would have at least and maybe 6 years of control for the team that gets him.

Either one would be the Pirates No. 2 or 3 immediately.


Scratch that.....Pirates are about to sign a FA pitcher.


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 Post subject: Re: Today's Bucco hypothetical SP's
PostPosted: Fri Dec 21, 2012 1:19 pm 
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rellimie wrote:
Bucfan wrote:
Porcello is a target, and one I hope the Pirates can get. His K totals have improved each of the past 3 seasons (from 4.64, to 5.14, to 5.46 per 9 IP). His velocity last season was north of 92 mph.

If he moves to the Pirates, with a much better infield defense, and facing pitchers 2-3x per start, his ERA plummets. That is why a stat like xFIP is relevant.

Porcello's xFIP the past 3 seasons: 4.24. 4.02, 3.89.

He is young, getting better, a groundball maven, with improving velocity.

I am 100% for obtaining Porcello.

One report indicated that the Tigers were also alternatively shopping Drew Smyly.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/12/t ... smyly.html

Why, I have no idea. He would be a great addition. Lefty, deals in the 90's, great stuff, pitched well last year for the Tigers in the AL (3.99 ERA, 94 K's in 99 IP). He is just 23, and with his limited ML time, would have at least and maybe 6 years of control for the team that gets him.

Either one would be the Pirates No. 2 or 3 immediately.


Scratch that.....Pirates are about to sign a FA pitcher.



I still wouldn't be against it.

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 Post subject: Re: Today's Bucco hypothetical SP's
PostPosted: Fri Dec 21, 2012 1:53 pm 
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Pirates signed Liriano. His struggles the past 2 years have arisen in large part from his loss of control. He is walking more than 5 batters per 9 IP.

Once again, moving from the AL to the NL makes any pitcher better. If Liriano can find the strike zone and avoid those 5 inning, 100 pitch starts, he will be a good addition.

The likely rotation now looks like this:

Burnett, Rodriguez, McDonald, Liriano, and McPherson/Locke.


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 Post subject: Re: Today's Bucco hypothetical SP's
PostPosted: Fri Dec 21, 2012 2:10 pm 
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On paper, I actually like that a lot. Especially with Cole at the end of it.

Now let's hope that McDonald and Liriano don't continue being terrible.

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 Post subject: Re: Today's Bucco hypothetical SP's
PostPosted: Fri Dec 21, 2012 3:25 pm 
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No. 9 wrote:
JC -
With all due respect, I find it interesting that you are being critical of Pirate management regarding a decision that they made before Karstens has thrown a single pitch in 2013, let alone completing the entire season. You have consistently written that people should not evaluate a particular acquisition, draft, signing, etc. based upon what was known at the time of that decision . . . you have consistently claimed that it is the RESULT that counts. So . . . to be consistent with your prior commentary, I would expect you to be all over NH's case if he signed Karstens for $3.8 and Karstens ended up pitching only 30 innings because of injury. Similarly, if Karstens posted a 6.00+ ERA, you'd be all over NH and his staff for not accurately assessing the situation.

NH has admitted - repeatedly - that they took a risk. He has admitted - repeatedly - that the decision may turn out to be a mistake and that it is a bit of a gamble.

I trust that, if Karstens has a bad year, that you will be wholly consistent with your prior analysis and admit that NH's decision was dead on accurate and that he should be commended for not paying $3.8M on a player who didn't perform. Am I right? Or . . . are you going to stick with your current line of thought and say that NH's decision should be evaluated without the benefit of hindsight?


First, I appreciate the "with all due respect." That's always a nice way to start a post.

Second, I gave my opinion on the Karstens non-tender based only on information available to me. I certainly acknowledge that NH and his scouts and personnel likely have more information on the topic than I do. I hope they are right and I am wrong. It just doesn't seem that obvious to me at the moment.

Third, if it turns out that, in 2013, Jeff Karstens does not pitch effectively and his services do not prove to be worth $3.8 million, then I will certainly come back here and admit that NH's decision was correct. As you properly note, it is my view that RESULTS matter. So if he turns out to be correct, he will have made a good decision and I will recant my prior criticism.


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 Post subject: Re: Today's Bucco hypothetical SP's
PostPosted: Fri Dec 21, 2012 9:49 pm 
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J_C_Steel wrote:
No. 9 wrote:
JC -
With all due respect, I find it interesting that you are being critical of Pirate management regarding a decision that they made before Karstens has thrown a single pitch in 2013, let alone completing the entire season. You have consistently written that people should not evaluate a particular acquisition, draft, signing, etc. based upon what was known at the time of that decision . . . you have consistently claimed that it is the RESULT that counts. So . . . to be consistent with your prior commentary, I would expect you to be all over NH's case if he signed Karstens for $3.8 and Karstens ended up pitching only 30 innings because of injury. Similarly, if Karstens posted a 6.00+ ERA, you'd be all over NH and his staff for not accurately assessing the situation.

NH has admitted - repeatedly - that they took a risk. He has admitted - repeatedly - that the decision may turn out to be a mistake and that it is a bit of a gamble.

I trust that, if Karstens has a bad year, that you will be wholly consistent with your prior analysis and admit that NH's decision was dead on accurate and that he should be commended for not paying $3.8M on a player who didn't perform. Am I right? Or . . . are you going to stick with your current line of thought and say that NH's decision should be evaluated without the benefit of hindsight?


First, I appreciate the "with all due respect." That's always a nice way to start a post.

Second, I gave my opinion on the Karstens non-tender based only on information available to me. I certainly acknowledge that NH and his scouts and personnel likely have more information on the topic than I do. I hope they are right and I am wrong. It just doesn't seem that obvious to me at the moment.

Third, if it turns out that, in 2013, Jeff Karstens does not pitch effectively and his services do not prove to be worth $3.8 million, then I will certainly come back here and admit that NH's decision was correct. As you properly note, it is my view that RESULTS matter. So if he turns out to be correct, he will have made a good decision and I will recant my prior criticism.

If Karstens signs somewhere and manages to crank out 25 or more starts you won't have to rip Huntington, he'll be ripping himself. He's already said that his decision was a gamble, and that if Karstens stays healthy he'll have been very, very wrong.

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 Post subject: Re: Today's Bucco hypothetical SP's
PostPosted: Sat Dec 22, 2012 12:34 am 
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sisyphus wrote:
J_C_Steel wrote:
No. 9 wrote:
JC -
With all due respect, I find it interesting that you are being critical of Pirate management regarding a decision that they made before Karstens has thrown a single pitch in 2013, let alone completing the entire season. You have consistently written that people should not evaluate a particular acquisition, draft, signing, etc. based upon what was known at the time of that decision . . . you have consistently claimed that it is the RESULT that counts. So . . . to be consistent with your prior commentary, I would expect you to be all over NH's case if he signed Karstens for $3.8 and Karstens ended up pitching only 30 innings because of injury. Similarly, if Karstens posted a 6.00+ ERA, you'd be all over NH and his staff for not accurately assessing the situation.

NH has admitted - repeatedly - that they took a risk. He has admitted - repeatedly - that the decision may turn out to be a mistake and that it is a bit of a gamble.

I trust that, if Karstens has a bad year, that you will be wholly consistent with your prior analysis and admit that NH's decision was dead on accurate and that he should be commended for not paying $3.8M on a player who didn't perform. Am I right? Or . . . are you going to stick with your current line of thought and say that NH's decision should be evaluated without the benefit of hindsight?


First, I appreciate the "with all due respect." That's always a nice way to start a post.

Second, I gave my opinion on the Karstens non-tender based only on information available to me. I certainly acknowledge that NH and his scouts and personnel likely have more information on the topic than I do. I hope they are right and I am wrong. It just doesn't seem that obvious to me at the moment.

Third, if it turns out that, in 2013, Jeff Karstens does not pitch effectively and his services do not prove to be worth $3.8 million, then I will certainly come back here and admit that NH's decision was correct. As you properly note, it is my view that RESULTS matter. So if he turns out to be correct, he will have made a good decision and I will recant my prior criticism.

If Karstens signs somewhere and manages to crank out 25 or more starts you won't have to rip Huntington, he'll be ripping himself. He's already said that his decision was a gamble, and that if Karstens stays healthy he'll have been very, very wrong.


I still won't be surprised if Karstens comes back cheap.


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 Post subject: Re: Today's Bucco hypothetical SP's
PostPosted: Sat Dec 22, 2012 1:51 pm 
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Looks like I nailed one back on 12/7. I'm a little surprised by the price tag (a little high), but I really like the move. Liriano will really be helped by the RH power suppression at PNC. He and JMac will make or break 2013.

Now flip Joel.

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 Post subject: Re: Today's Bucco hypothetical SP's
PostPosted: Sun Dec 23, 2012 11:45 am 
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rellimie wrote:
I still won't be surprised if Karstens comes back cheap.

I don't know where he'll end up, but it looks to me as if the best he can hope for is a minor league deal with an invite to spring training.

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