Proud fans of a 128-year old tradition

It is currently Sat Oct 25, 2014 5:40 pm

All times are UTC - 4 hours [ DST ]




Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 37 posts ]  Go to page 1, 2  Next
Author Message
 Post subject: Re: Would you make this trade?
PostPosted: Tue Dec 04, 2012 7:01 pm 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2010 1:50 pm
Posts: 3879
Location: Glenshaw, PA
J_C_Steel wrote:
My trade #1 is predicated on signing Andrus to a long-term extension. I believe he's a star-level player at SS and he GETS ON BASE (OBP over .340 each of the last two years). He's also only 24 years old.

I like Marte, but your projection is optimistic and relies quite a bit on defense. I'd rather have a known star at SS than a maybe star at a corner outfield position who gets a lot of his value from defense. It's just easier to find corner outfield guys.


Where pray tell do you plan on getting the $100 million to sign Andrus?

_________________
Well NH did get Cutch signed, but what have you done for me lately?


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Would you make this trade?
PostPosted: Tue Dec 04, 2012 7:16 pm 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Mon Apr 06, 2009 5:46 pm
Posts: 5102
Location: Washington, DC
Barrys Dopers wrote:
J_C_Steel wrote:
My trade #1 is predicated on signing Andrus to a long-term extension. I believe he's a star-level player at SS and he GETS ON BASE (OBP over .340 each of the last two years). He's also only 24 years old.

I like Marte, but your projection is optimistic and relies quite a bit on defense. I'd rather have a known star at SS than a maybe star at a corner outfield position who gets a lot of his value from defense. It's just easier to find corner outfield guys.


Where pray tell do you plan on getting the $100 million to sign Andrus?


More revenue from MLB cable deal, increasing ticket sales, etc. It's not like Andrus would be getting $100 million all in one year. Do you think the Pirates are incapable of paying someone a fairly large contract? If Milwaukee can do it, Pittsburgh can do it.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Would you make this trade?
PostPosted: Tue Dec 04, 2012 10:08 pm 
Offline
 Profile

Joined: Sat Jul 11, 2009 6:21 am
Posts: 5633
bucco boy wrote:
Joel Hanrahan for Michael Morse.


No.

J_C_Steel wrote:
How about these trades?

Starling Marte and Jameson Taillon for Elvis Andrus.

OR

Joel Hanrahan and Travis Snider for Jason Kubel.


NO and no.

_________________
Rage, rage against the regression of the light.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Would you make this trade?
PostPosted: Wed Dec 05, 2012 12:36 am 
Offline
 Profile

Joined: Sun Dec 21, 2008 8:42 pm
Posts: 915
J_C_Steel wrote:
Kubel's a lefty who hit 30 HRs last year and has OBPs of .327 and .332 the last two years. I don't think Snider or Tabata touch those numbers. I'd love to see Kubel in RF at PNC. Big upgrade offensively, and with Cutch and Marte in CF and LF, it's not like the overall outfield defense will be bad.


You already have two 30 HR guys in the lineup, and a mid 20's guy if Jones stays, and another potential 20HR guy in Marte if/when he developes. BIGGER ISSUE is leadoff.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Would you make this trade?
PostPosted: Wed Dec 05, 2012 12:59 am 
Offline
 Profile

Joined: Sat Apr 26, 2008 4:26 pm
Posts: 3006
rellimie wrote:
J_C_Steel wrote:
Kubel's a lefty who hit 30 HRs last year and has OBPs of .327 and .332 the last two years. I don't think Snider or Tabata touch those numbers. I'd love to see Kubel in RF at PNC. Big upgrade offensively, and with Cutch and Marte in CF and LF, it's not like the overall outfield defense will be bad.


You already have two 30 HR guys in the lineup, and a mid 20's guy if Jones stays, and another potential 20HR guy in Marte if/when he developes. BIGGER ISSUE is leadoff.


Biggest issue is obp in general.

Btw, did anyone see the reference that Clint Hurdle wants to use Russell Martin in the #2 spot in the lineup? I'm not sure this guy understands the point of baseball. Maybe Barmes can lead off.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Would you make this trade?
PostPosted: Wed Dec 05, 2012 9:16 am 
Offline
 Profile

Joined: Sun Dec 21, 2008 8:42 pm
Posts: 915
BBF wrote:
rellimie wrote:
J_C_Steel wrote:
Kubel's a lefty who hit 30 HRs last year and has OBPs of .327 and .332 the last two years. I don't think Snider or Tabata touch those numbers. I'd love to see Kubel in RF at PNC. Big upgrade offensively, and with Cutch and Marte in CF and LF, it's not like the overall outfield defense will be bad.


You already have two 30 HR guys in the lineup, and a mid 20's guy if Jones stays, and another potential 20HR guy in Marte if/when he developes. BIGGER ISSUE is leadoff.


Biggest issue is obp in general.

Btw, did anyone see the reference that Clint Hurdle wants to use Russell Martin in the #2 spot in the lineup? I'm not sure this guy understands the point of baseball. Maybe Barmes can lead off.


Well if he is basing his lineup on OBP then he will be at the top. (Compared to the rest of this team).


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Would you make this trade?
PostPosted: Wed Dec 05, 2012 10:23 am 
Offline
User avatar
 WWW  Profile

Joined: Thu Feb 23, 2012 1:30 pm
Posts: 2247
Location: Naples, FL
Even Pedro OBP-ed higher than Martin last year. Martin should bat 10th.

_________________
AAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Would you make this trade?
PostPosted: Wed Dec 05, 2012 11:35 am 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2010 1:50 pm
Posts: 3879
Location: Glenshaw, PA
J_C_Steel wrote:
Barrys Dopers wrote:
J_C_Steel wrote:
My trade #1 is predicated on signing Andrus to a long-term extension. I believe he's a star-level player at SS and he GETS ON BASE (OBP over .340 each of the last two years). He's also only 24 years old.

I like Marte, but your projection is optimistic and relies quite a bit on defense. I'd rather have a known star at SS than a maybe star at a corner outfield position who gets a lot of his value from defense. It's just easier to find corner outfield guys.


Where pray tell do you plan on getting the $100 million to sign Andrus?


More revenue from MLB cable deal, increasing ticket sales, etc. It's not like Andrus would be getting $100 million all in one year. Do you think the Pirates are incapable of paying someone a fairly large contract? If Milwaukee can do it, Pittsburgh can do it.


I don't believe we can or will do it. Milwaukee has done it once for one of the best 5 players in the game (5yrs, $105 million) and we know their revenue stream is well above ours based on late-2000's leaked numbers.

Andrus certainly will get $100+ million, Reyes got $106 million entering his 29 year old season, Elvis will be a free agent at age 26.

_________________
Well NH did get Cutch signed, but what have you done for me lately?


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Would you make this trade?
PostPosted: Wed Dec 05, 2012 1:21 pm 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Mon Apr 06, 2009 5:46 pm
Posts: 5102
Location: Washington, DC
NSMaster56 wrote:
J_C_Steel wrote:
How about these trades?

Starling Marte and Jameson Taillon for Elvis Andrus.

OR

Joel Hanrahan and Travis Snider for Jason Kubel.


NO and no.


I don't understand people being against trading Marte/Taillon for Andrus. Elvis Andrus is a 24-year-old shortstop star who gets on base, runs well, and plays good defense. He's a PERFECT lead-off hitter for the Pirates. Trading for him and signing him to a long-term deal turns a huge weakness into a big-time strength. If he could be added for two prospects, one of which is a corner outfielder, the Bucs should do it.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Would you make this trade?
PostPosted: Wed Dec 05, 2012 1:22 pm 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Mon Apr 06, 2009 5:46 pm
Posts: 5102
Location: Washington, DC
Barrys Dopers wrote:
I don't believe we can or will do it. Milwaukee has done it once for one of the best 5 players in the game (5yrs, $105 million) and we know their revenue stream is well above ours based on late-2000's leaked numbers.

Andrus certainly will get $100+ million, Reyes got $106 million entering his 29 year old season, Elvis will be a free agent at age 26.


Given how affordable Cutch is for the life of his contract, the Pirates can sign a position player to a big-time contract. Elvis Andrus would be a prime candidate for that, as he's a PERFECT lead-off hitter who turns a huge team weakness, shortstop, into a big-time team strength.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Would you make this trade?
PostPosted: Wed Dec 05, 2012 1:32 pm 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2010 1:50 pm
Posts: 3879
Location: Glenshaw, PA
J_C_Steel wrote:
NSMaster56 wrote:
J_C_Steel wrote:
How about these trades?

Starling Marte and Jameson Taillon for Elvis Andrus.

OR

Joel Hanrahan and Travis Snider for Jason Kubel.


NO and no.


I don't understand people being against trading Marte/Taillon for Andrus. Elvis Andrus is a 24-year-old shortstop star who gets on base, runs well, and plays good defense. He's a PERFECT lead-off hitter for the Pirates. Trading for him and signing him to a long-term deal turns a huge weakness into a big-time strength. If he could be added for two prospects, one of which is a corner outfielder, the Bucs should do it.


You just can't assume an extension and even if you do its going to be much bigger than Cutch's deal. That cost has to be considered since that is money you can no longer spend on Cole, Taillon, Marte, Walker, Pedro, etc. 6 1/2 years of a front of a rotation SP and above average MLB LF at league minimum is a ton to give up, plus 6 years of arbitration control. No team is trading elite prospects these days, its not a smart thing to do. Marte plus Taillon is alot more wins than Andrus plus a replacement SP can provide.

_________________
Well NH did get Cutch signed, but what have you done for me lately?


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Would you make this trade?
PostPosted: Wed Dec 05, 2012 1:36 pm 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2010 1:50 pm
Posts: 3879
Location: Glenshaw, PA
OK new hypothetical -

Hammer for Gavin Floyd. Floyd makes $9.5 million in 2013 and will be a free agent.

Seems like a fair match and gives us a quality #3 SP. Thoughts?

_________________
Well NH did get Cutch signed, but what have you done for me lately?


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Would you make this trade?
PostPosted: Wed Dec 05, 2012 2:08 pm 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Sat Apr 26, 2008 6:10 pm
Posts: 2172
Barrys Dopers wrote:
OK new hypothetical -

Hammer for Gavin Floyd. Floyd makes $9.5 million in 2013 and will be a free agent.

Seems like a fair match and gives us a quality #3 SP. Thoughts?

Like Floyd a lot, and I think he would be even better in the NL.

I sort of hate to trade Hammer, but know the reality of the situation. Not sure after the shots he took from his own GM that he would want to stay here long term anyway. He tweeted yesterday that he was fitted for a tux and he was the same size as a year ago..."imagine that". I assume that was a dig at the comments about his weight/condition.

But I think a Floyd type is about all we can expect in return for him...


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Would you make this trade?
PostPosted: Wed Dec 05, 2012 2:24 pm 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Mon Apr 06, 2009 5:46 pm
Posts: 5102
Location: Washington, DC
Barrys Dopers wrote:
You just can't assume an extension and even if you do its going to be much bigger than Cutch's deal. That cost has to be considered since that is money you can no longer spend on Cole, Taillon, Marte, Walker, Pedro, etc. 6 1/2 years of a front of a rotation SP and above average MLB LF at league minimum is a ton to give up, plus 6 years of arbitration control. No team is trading elite prospects these days, its not a smart thing to do. Marte plus Taillon is alot more wins than Andrus plus a replacement SP can provide.


You can't assume that he WOULDN'T be extended, and I don't think it would be well north of Cutch's deal.

And you're ASSUMING that both Marte and Taillon meet their expectations. That's not entirely realistic. With Gerrit Cole, Luis Heredia and Gregory Polanco behind them, and hopefully additional high-level talent added with the 9th and 14th selections in the 2013 draft, the Pirates should have sufficient depth to obtain a star-level shortstop.

Gotta give up to get.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Would you make this trade?
PostPosted: Wed Dec 05, 2012 2:31 pm 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Mon Apr 06, 2009 5:46 pm
Posts: 5102
Location: Washington, DC
Barrys Dopers wrote:
OK new hypothetical -

Hammer for Gavin Floyd. Floyd makes $9.5 million in 2013 and will be a free agent.

Seems like a fair match and gives us a quality #3 SP. Thoughts?


I'd like to get someone with more than one year of control for Hanrahan, but Floyd looks like a solid pitching option (WARs of 2.3 to 3.9 over the last 5 years).


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Would you make this trade?
PostPosted: Wed Dec 05, 2012 2:54 pm 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Sat Apr 26, 2008 6:18 pm
Posts: 5060
Location: Scotch Plains, NJ
J_C_Steel wrote:
Barrys Dopers wrote:
You just can't assume an extension and even if you do its going to be much bigger than Cutch's deal. That cost has to be considered since that is money you can no longer spend on Cole, Taillon, Marte, Walker, Pedro, etc. 6 1/2 years of a front of a rotation SP and above average MLB LF at league minimum is a ton to give up, plus 6 years of arbitration control. No team is trading elite prospects these days, its not a smart thing to do. Marte plus Taillon is alot more wins than Andrus plus a replacement SP can provide.


You can't assume that he WOULDN'T be extended, and I don't think it would be well north of Cutch's deal.

You MUST assume that Andrus would not be extended. At the moment, Andrus has not been extended, and until he has been extended, one must assume that he will choose to become a free agent at the end of 2014. You can't predict what Andrus will do beyond 2014, and you certainly cannot make a reasonable valuation of a trade based on the possibility that he will choose to take an extension, particularly with the Pirates. Thinking that Andrus would take an extension with the Pirates is wish-casting.

As for a valuation of an extension, what is your basis for believing that an Andrus extension would not be well north of Cutch's deal? Cutch signed an extension when the Pirates had at least 4 years of control left over him. Any team that acquires Andrus will only have 2 such years left over Andrus. Andrus is also two years younger than Cutch is and plays a more demanding defensive position than Cutch does. Lastly, Cutch was signed before he broke out in 2012. Andrus has already broken out. All of the foregoing factors indicate that Andrus will likely receive a much richer contract extension than Cutch received, assuming that Andrus even elects to take an extension.

J_C_Steel wrote:
And you're ASSUMING that both Marte and Taillon meet their expectations. That's not entirely realistic. With Gerrit Cole, Luis Heredia and Gregory Polanco behind them, and hopefully additional high-level talent added with the 9th and 14th selections in the 2013 draft, the Pirates should have sufficient depth to obtain a star-level shortstop.

Gotta give up to get.

BD's assumption may not be entirely realistic, but it is mostly realistic. Taillon and Marte are very likely to meet the expectations that BD has provided, and the Pirates will have 6 years of cost control over each player. There's always a chance that these two players will fail to meet these expectations, but given the upside each player has, taking that risk is certainly part of a sound strategy.

_________________
"For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong."
~H. L. Mencken


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Would you make this trade?
PostPosted: Wed Dec 05, 2012 3:08 pm 
Offline
 Profile

Joined: Mon Apr 28, 2008 10:46 am
Posts: 3655
Location: Economy, PA
Well said Wilton.

Stop trying to trade Taillon. He is going to be my favorite player and our best pitcher.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Would you make this trade?
PostPosted: Wed Dec 05, 2012 3:14 pm 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Mon Apr 06, 2009 5:46 pm
Posts: 5102
Location: Washington, DC
Ralphie wrote:
Stop trying to trade Taillon. He is going to be my favorite player and our best pitcher.


I hope so. I'm just painting a scenario in which the Pirates receive a superstar, franchise shortstop. It would cost one of Cole/Taillon in the package, I believe.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Would you make this trade?
PostPosted: Wed Dec 05, 2012 3:20 pm 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Mon Apr 06, 2009 5:46 pm
Posts: 5102
Location: Washington, DC
Willton wrote:
You MUST assume that Andrus would not be extended. At the moment, Andrus has not been extended, and until he has been extended, one must assume that he will choose to become a free agent at the end of 2014. You can't predict what Andrus will do beyond 2014, and you certainly cannot make a reasonable valuation of a trade based on the possibility that he will choose to take an extension, particularly with the Pirates. Thinking that Andrus would take an extension with the Pirates is wish-casting.

As for a valuation of an extension, what is your basis for believing that an Andrus extension would not be well north of Cutch's deal? Cutch signed an extension when the Pirates had at least 4 years of control left over him. Any team that acquires Andrus will only have 2 such years left over Andrus. Andrus is also two years younger than Cutch is and plays a more demanding defensive position than Cutch does. Lastly, Cutch was signed before he broke out in 2012. Andrus has already broken out. All of the foregoing factors indicate that Andrus will likely receive a much richer contract extension than Cutch received, assuming that Andrus even elects to take an extension.


When I said not well north of Cutch's deal, I was talking in terms of yearly salary, not overall value.

If you take Tulowitzki's deal as top-end (7 years, $134 million), then we can agree that Andrus won't be commanding that kind of salary. He doesn't have Tulo's power and he's about on par with him defensively. So Andrus won't be making $19 million per annum. What would he be making? Maybe $12 to $15 million per annum. The Pirates could feasibly sign him to a 7-year, $105 million contract. And he's worth it. Pair him with Cutch over the life of the deal, and the Bucs have superstars at 1 and 3 in their lineup for the foreseeable future.

Willton wrote:
BD's assumption may not be entirely realistic, but it is mostly realistic. Taillon and Marte are very likely to meet the expectations that BD has provided, and the Pirates will have 6 years of cost control over each player. There's always a chance that these two players will fail to meet these expectations, but given the upside each player has, taking that risk is certainly part of a sound strategy.


Pitchers are crap shoots, Willton. You can't say Taillon is "likely" to be a great pitcher. Marte is more a sure thing, but he struggles to get on base and his value is largely derived from his speed and defense (with a smattering of power). But given that those are the only two positions where the Pirates have a bit of depth, trading from those positions for a superstar shortstop makes sense.

Would you be FOR the deal if the Pirates signed Andrus to a 7-year, $105 million extension?


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Would you make this trade?
PostPosted: Wed Dec 05, 2012 4:52 pm 
Offline
 Profile

Joined: Mon Jul 23, 2012 11:27 am
Posts: 1444
Location: Eastern Shore
J_C_Steel wrote:
Ralphie wrote:
Stop trying to trade Taillon. He is going to be my favorite player and our best pitcher.


I hope so. I'm just painting a scenario in which the Pirates receive a superstar, franchise shortstop. It would cost one of Cole/Taillon in the package, I believe.

I'd do the trade. An established shortstop for a prospect? We're not talking Strasburg here. We're talking about a guy who has promise, but promise doesn't win ball games.


Top
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 37 posts ]  Go to page 1, 2  Next

All times are UTC - 4 hours [ DST ]


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Bing [Bot] and 5 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Search for:
Jump to:  
Powered by phpBB © 2000, 2002, 2005, 2007 phpBB Group  
Design By Poker Bandits