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 Post subject: Re: Would you make this trade?
PostPosted: Wed Dec 05, 2012 1:32 pm 
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J_C_Steel wrote:
NSMaster56 wrote:
J_C_Steel wrote:
How about these trades?

Starling Marte and Jameson Taillon for Elvis Andrus.

OR

Joel Hanrahan and Travis Snider for Jason Kubel.


NO and no.


I don't understand people being against trading Marte/Taillon for Andrus. Elvis Andrus is a 24-year-old shortstop star who gets on base, runs well, and plays good defense. He's a PERFECT lead-off hitter for the Pirates. Trading for him and signing him to a long-term deal turns a huge weakness into a big-time strength. If he could be added for two prospects, one of which is a corner outfielder, the Bucs should do it.


You just can't assume an extension and even if you do its going to be much bigger than Cutch's deal. That cost has to be considered since that is money you can no longer spend on Cole, Taillon, Marte, Walker, Pedro, etc. 6 1/2 years of a front of a rotation SP and above average MLB LF at league minimum is a ton to give up, plus 6 years of arbitration control. No team is trading elite prospects these days, its not a smart thing to do. Marte plus Taillon is alot more wins than Andrus plus a replacement SP can provide.

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 Post subject: Re: Would you make this trade?
PostPosted: Wed Dec 05, 2012 1:36 pm 
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OK new hypothetical -

Hammer for Gavin Floyd. Floyd makes $9.5 million in 2013 and will be a free agent.

Seems like a fair match and gives us a quality #3 SP. Thoughts?

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 Post subject: Re: Would you make this trade?
PostPosted: Wed Dec 05, 2012 2:08 pm 
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Barrys Dopers wrote:
OK new hypothetical -

Hammer for Gavin Floyd. Floyd makes $9.5 million in 2013 and will be a free agent.

Seems like a fair match and gives us a quality #3 SP. Thoughts?

Like Floyd a lot, and I think he would be even better in the NL.

I sort of hate to trade Hammer, but know the reality of the situation. Not sure after the shots he took from his own GM that he would want to stay here long term anyway. He tweeted yesterday that he was fitted for a tux and he was the same size as a year ago..."imagine that". I assume that was a dig at the comments about his weight/condition.

But I think a Floyd type is about all we can expect in return for him...


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 Post subject: Re: Would you make this trade?
PostPosted: Wed Dec 05, 2012 2:24 pm 
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Barrys Dopers wrote:
You just can't assume an extension and even if you do its going to be much bigger than Cutch's deal. That cost has to be considered since that is money you can no longer spend on Cole, Taillon, Marte, Walker, Pedro, etc. 6 1/2 years of a front of a rotation SP and above average MLB LF at league minimum is a ton to give up, plus 6 years of arbitration control. No team is trading elite prospects these days, its not a smart thing to do. Marte plus Taillon is alot more wins than Andrus plus a replacement SP can provide.


You can't assume that he WOULDN'T be extended, and I don't think it would be well north of Cutch's deal.

And you're ASSUMING that both Marte and Taillon meet their expectations. That's not entirely realistic. With Gerrit Cole, Luis Heredia and Gregory Polanco behind them, and hopefully additional high-level talent added with the 9th and 14th selections in the 2013 draft, the Pirates should have sufficient depth to obtain a star-level shortstop.

Gotta give up to get.


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 Post subject: Re: Would you make this trade?
PostPosted: Wed Dec 05, 2012 2:31 pm 
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Barrys Dopers wrote:
OK new hypothetical -

Hammer for Gavin Floyd. Floyd makes $9.5 million in 2013 and will be a free agent.

Seems like a fair match and gives us a quality #3 SP. Thoughts?


I'd like to get someone with more than one year of control for Hanrahan, but Floyd looks like a solid pitching option (WARs of 2.3 to 3.9 over the last 5 years).


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 Post subject: Re: Would you make this trade?
PostPosted: Wed Dec 05, 2012 2:54 pm 
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J_C_Steel wrote:
Barrys Dopers wrote:
You just can't assume an extension and even if you do its going to be much bigger than Cutch's deal. That cost has to be considered since that is money you can no longer spend on Cole, Taillon, Marte, Walker, Pedro, etc. 6 1/2 years of a front of a rotation SP and above average MLB LF at league minimum is a ton to give up, plus 6 years of arbitration control. No team is trading elite prospects these days, its not a smart thing to do. Marte plus Taillon is alot more wins than Andrus plus a replacement SP can provide.


You can't assume that he WOULDN'T be extended, and I don't think it would be well north of Cutch's deal.

You MUST assume that Andrus would not be extended. At the moment, Andrus has not been extended, and until he has been extended, one must assume that he will choose to become a free agent at the end of 2014. You can't predict what Andrus will do beyond 2014, and you certainly cannot make a reasonable valuation of a trade based on the possibility that he will choose to take an extension, particularly with the Pirates. Thinking that Andrus would take an extension with the Pirates is wish-casting.

As for a valuation of an extension, what is your basis for believing that an Andrus extension would not be well north of Cutch's deal? Cutch signed an extension when the Pirates had at least 4 years of control left over him. Any team that acquires Andrus will only have 2 such years left over Andrus. Andrus is also two years younger than Cutch is and plays a more demanding defensive position than Cutch does. Lastly, Cutch was signed before he broke out in 2012. Andrus has already broken out. All of the foregoing factors indicate that Andrus will likely receive a much richer contract extension than Cutch received, assuming that Andrus even elects to take an extension.

J_C_Steel wrote:
And you're ASSUMING that both Marte and Taillon meet their expectations. That's not entirely realistic. With Gerrit Cole, Luis Heredia and Gregory Polanco behind them, and hopefully additional high-level talent added with the 9th and 14th selections in the 2013 draft, the Pirates should have sufficient depth to obtain a star-level shortstop.

Gotta give up to get.

BD's assumption may not be entirely realistic, but it is mostly realistic. Taillon and Marte are very likely to meet the expectations that BD has provided, and the Pirates will have 6 years of cost control over each player. There's always a chance that these two players will fail to meet these expectations, but given the upside each player has, taking that risk is certainly part of a sound strategy.

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 Post subject: Re: Would you make this trade?
PostPosted: Wed Dec 05, 2012 3:08 pm 
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Well said Wilton.

Stop trying to trade Taillon. He is going to be my favorite player and our best pitcher.


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 Post subject: Re: Would you make this trade?
PostPosted: Wed Dec 05, 2012 3:14 pm 
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Ralphie wrote:
Stop trying to trade Taillon. He is going to be my favorite player and our best pitcher.


I hope so. I'm just painting a scenario in which the Pirates receive a superstar, franchise shortstop. It would cost one of Cole/Taillon in the package, I believe.


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 Post subject: Re: Would you make this trade?
PostPosted: Wed Dec 05, 2012 3:20 pm 
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Willton wrote:
You MUST assume that Andrus would not be extended. At the moment, Andrus has not been extended, and until he has been extended, one must assume that he will choose to become a free agent at the end of 2014. You can't predict what Andrus will do beyond 2014, and you certainly cannot make a reasonable valuation of a trade based on the possibility that he will choose to take an extension, particularly with the Pirates. Thinking that Andrus would take an extension with the Pirates is wish-casting.

As for a valuation of an extension, what is your basis for believing that an Andrus extension would not be well north of Cutch's deal? Cutch signed an extension when the Pirates had at least 4 years of control left over him. Any team that acquires Andrus will only have 2 such years left over Andrus. Andrus is also two years younger than Cutch is and plays a more demanding defensive position than Cutch does. Lastly, Cutch was signed before he broke out in 2012. Andrus has already broken out. All of the foregoing factors indicate that Andrus will likely receive a much richer contract extension than Cutch received, assuming that Andrus even elects to take an extension.


When I said not well north of Cutch's deal, I was talking in terms of yearly salary, not overall value.

If you take Tulowitzki's deal as top-end (7 years, $134 million), then we can agree that Andrus won't be commanding that kind of salary. He doesn't have Tulo's power and he's about on par with him defensively. So Andrus won't be making $19 million per annum. What would he be making? Maybe $12 to $15 million per annum. The Pirates could feasibly sign him to a 7-year, $105 million contract. And he's worth it. Pair him with Cutch over the life of the deal, and the Bucs have superstars at 1 and 3 in their lineup for the foreseeable future.

Willton wrote:
BD's assumption may not be entirely realistic, but it is mostly realistic. Taillon and Marte are very likely to meet the expectations that BD has provided, and the Pirates will have 6 years of cost control over each player. There's always a chance that these two players will fail to meet these expectations, but given the upside each player has, taking that risk is certainly part of a sound strategy.


Pitchers are crap shoots, Willton. You can't say Taillon is "likely" to be a great pitcher. Marte is more a sure thing, but he struggles to get on base and his value is largely derived from his speed and defense (with a smattering of power). But given that those are the only two positions where the Pirates have a bit of depth, trading from those positions for a superstar shortstop makes sense.

Would you be FOR the deal if the Pirates signed Andrus to a 7-year, $105 million extension?


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 Post subject: Re: Would you make this trade?
PostPosted: Wed Dec 05, 2012 4:52 pm 
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J_C_Steel wrote:
Ralphie wrote:
Stop trying to trade Taillon. He is going to be my favorite player and our best pitcher.


I hope so. I'm just painting a scenario in which the Pirates receive a superstar, franchise shortstop. It would cost one of Cole/Taillon in the package, I believe.

I'd do the trade. An established shortstop for a prospect? We're not talking Strasburg here. We're talking about a guy who has promise, but promise doesn't win ball games.


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 Post subject: Re: Would you make this trade?
PostPosted: Wed Dec 05, 2012 10:29 pm 
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Barrys Dopers wrote:
OK new hypothetical -

Hammer for Gavin Floyd. Floyd makes $9.5 million in 2013 and will be a free agent.

Seems like a fair match and gives us a quality #3 SP. Thoughts?


Is this trade straigt up or would the Sox eat some of that salary?

If just SU, 'yes'.

If with some salary dip, 'hell yes'.

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 Post subject: Re: Would you make this trade?
PostPosted: Wed Dec 05, 2012 10:37 pm 
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J_C_Steel wrote:
NSMaster56 wrote:
J_C_Steel wrote:
How about these trades?

Starling Marte and Jameson Taillon for Elvis Andrus.

OR

Joel Hanrahan and Travis Snider for Jason Kubel.


NO and no.


I don't understand people being against trading Marte/Taillon for Andrus. Elvis Andrus is a 24-year-old shortstop star who gets on base, runs well, and plays good defense. He's a PERFECT lead-off hitter for the Pirates. Trading for him and signing him to a long-term deal turns a huge weakness into a big-time strength. If he could be added for two prospects, one of which is a corner outfielder, the Bucs should do it.


It's not a horrible idea. It's just not 'cost effective' or 'most efficient'.

It's not guaranteed that the Pirates can retain Elvis and the need for SS is not as pressing (or, more exactly, cannot be as cheaply filled) as other positions. (Since we're talking hypotheticals, just think for comparison: Would you rather trade Marte+Taillon for $100 M of Andrus or Marte+Taillon+2-3 other players for 1/2 that cost of Giancarlo Stanton???)

That probably is what the price for an Andrus-type would be and it would serve two needs for the Bucs, but the long-term value of both Marte and Taillon may prove to be greater than an expensive position player where the Bucs could otherwise 'just get by'.

Many recent WS winners have had sub-standard-to-standard Shortstops; from David Eckstein and Edgar Renteria to Marco Scutaro... Paying $100 M for SS, even a top-of-the-line one, seems like a luxury that the Bucs are not in position to afford at this time.

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 Post subject: Re: Would you make this trade?
PostPosted: Thu Dec 06, 2012 12:38 pm 
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NSMaster56 wrote:
It's not a horrible idea. It's just not 'cost effective' or 'most efficient'.

It's not guaranteed that the Pirates can retain Elvis and the need for SS is not as pressing (or, more exactly, cannot be as cheaply filled) as other positions. (Since we're talking hypotheticals, just think for comparison: Would you rather trade Marte+Taillon for $100 M of Andrus or Marte+Taillon+2-3 other players for 1/2 that cost of Giancarlo Stanton???)

That probably is what the price for an Andrus-type would be and it would serve two needs for the Bucs, but the long-term value of both Marte and Taillon may prove to be greater than an expensive position player where the Bucs could otherwise 'just get by'.

Many recent WS winners have had sub-standard-to-standard Shortstops; from David Eckstein and Edgar Renteria to Marco Scutaro... Paying $100 M
for SS, even a top-of-the-line one, seems like a luxury that the Bucs are not in position to afford at this time.


A couple things here.

First of all, I'd obviously rather have Giancarlo Stanton. I was the first person on this board to suggest going after him with a huge package, including a Marte/Taillon/Hanson/McPherson combo. Stanton is a game-changing home run hitter. I'd overpay for him.

But the argument that SS isn't a need for the Pirates because Clint Barmes was just below average for the second half last year and not absolutely horrible like he was in the first half is a terrible argument. Barmes is an offensive black hole that drags down the lineup. His defense is good, but that doesn't make up for his lack of contribution to the offense. Adding Elvis Andrus solves at least three problems for the Pirates. First, it replaces Barmes with a very good offensive player. Second, it adds a hitter who can get on base (three straight years of OBPs higher than .340). Third, it give the Pirates a speedy, solid lead-off hitter with a good eye. All without sacrificing defense (Andrus' dWAR over the last two years has been 1.5 and 1.6).

Finally, the argument that World Series winners have gotten by with substandard shortstops is a fallacy. Plenty of such winners have also had substandard center fielders. Does that mean the Pirates should trade Cutch? Of course not. Teams need to put together solid lineups, period. Position isn't nearly as important as actual value. And Elvis Andrus would add something to the Pirates that they TRULY need -- a solid lead-off hitter who gets on base and plays solid defense at shortstop.


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 Post subject: Re: Would you make this trade?
PostPosted: Thu Dec 06, 2012 1:17 pm 
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The idea that we should be looking to trade 3 or more top prospects to acquire one very good player is not an approach the Pirates should be taking, in my opinion.

We need Marte, Taillon, Hanson, and McPherson combined to provide way more value than Andrus ever could by himself. And to do it for 3 years at or near league minimum. That's the only way we are going to be successful in the long term.


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 Post subject: Re: Would you make this trade?
PostPosted: Thu Dec 06, 2012 1:23 pm 
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J_C_Steel wrote:
When I said not well north of Cutch's deal, I was talking in terms of yearly salary, not overall value.

Your proposal of a 7-year $105M deal for Andrus (i.e., $15M/yr) is certainly well north of Cutch's 6-year $51.5M deal (i.e., $8.6M/yr), even in terms of yearly salary.

J_C_Steel wrote:
Would you be FOR the deal if the Pirates signed Andrus to a 7-year, $105 million extension?

Probably, but again, you haven't explained how that condition would likely be satisfied. You are presuming that Andrus, a star player only 2 years away from free agency, would take such a deal from the Pirates, a perennial loser. I don't see why Andrus would take that deal from any team, much less the Pirates, when Jose Reyes, a player of comparable value, received a much richer contract from the Marlins last year ($105M over 6 years = $17.5M/yr). I also don't understand how it is "feasible" for the Pirates to make such a deal and still have the resources to make the pitching improvements necessary to make this team a contender.

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 Post subject: Re: Would you make this trade?
PostPosted: Thu Dec 06, 2012 10:01 pm 
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J_C_Steel wrote:
First of all, I'd obviously rather have Giancarlo Stanton... I'd overpay for him.


The Stanton hypothetical was just as a comparison to the cost of Andrus.

J_C_Steel wrote:
But the argument that SS isn't a need for the Pirates because Clint Barmes was just below average for the second half last year and not absolutely horrible like he was in the first half is a terrible argument.


It's a faulty argument if the goal is to have an AS caliber player @ SS or if one is intent on having a premier player @ SS. Otherwise it's more just accepting the Pirates current position.

If the goal is to win games, make the playoffs and/or make/win a WS, there is no concrete evidence which supports that an elite SS is needed.

J_C_Steel wrote:
Finally, the argument that World Series winners have gotten by with substandard shortstops is a fallacy. Plenty of such winners have also had substandard center fielders. Does that mean the Pirates should trade Cutch? Of course not. Teams need to put together solid lineups, period. Position isn't nearly as important as actual value. And Elvis Andrus would add something to the Pirates that they TRULY need -- a solid lead-off hitter who gets on base and plays solid defense at shortstop.


Yes, position isn't as important as actual value and Andrus would add something. However, you answered your own question: position isn't as important as actual value. So long as the Pirates get 'actual value' which equates to what Andrus can produce or near it, it doesn't matter if that production comes from SS, 2B, CF, etc.

It isn't imperative that the Pirates have an elite SS and/or that SS be an elite leadoff hitter, etc. All that is imperative is that the lineup functions enough to win more than losing.

Furthermore, look at what Ben Revere just netted: a solid SP and a AAA P averaging 11/K/9 IP ratio! Many are claiming that it was 'quite a haul' for a CF like Reve.

Isn't Marte as good and/or projects better than Revere? So Marte+Taillon (a former #1 pick who projects as an 'Ace') may be more in 'actual value', both long and short term, than spending $100+ M on Andrus.

The years and levels of production provided by Marte+Taillon+the other players the Pirates could afford by not shelling out $100 M for Andrus (a Barmes like SS, another SP, probably more) may very well prove to have more 'actual value' than the 'importance of having an elite SS'.

All this appears moot anyways as the Rangers appear more intent on moving Michael Young as opposed to Elvis.

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 Post subject: Re: Would you make this trade?
PostPosted: Mon Dec 10, 2012 6:33 pm 
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Not intended to drudge this back up, but I came across this nice piece of work looking at BA's top 100 from 1990-2003 and defining success as averaging 1.5 WAR per season of cost-control (first 6 1/2 years). That's a bit of a high bar, but it basically indicates the rate of prospects turning into good durable MLB players.

http://www.royalsreview.com/2011/2/14/1 ... -prospects

The failure rate overall is near 70%, of course its much higher at the bottom of the list than the top. Even so, in the top 20 rankings its about 40% fail for hitters, 60% for pitchers.

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