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 Post subject: How short?
PostPosted: Mon Oct 01, 2012 11:02 pm 
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With the tough battle, but loss, yesterday and now a W today, the Bucs have 78 W's.

If the Braves do pack it in, or should the Bucs best them for a sweep, or a series win, how upset will you be that this squad fell 1-2 games shy of .500 ball?

To collapse is one thing... to collapse and still miss breaking 'the streak' by thismuch...

How many close games blown can we count this season?

Very frustrating.

All this had better light a fire under this team's ass for next year (ala the 95 Steelers, although they came up a few yards short of the SB, not merely .500).

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 Post subject: Re: How short?
PostPosted: Mon Oct 01, 2012 11:07 pm 
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Numbers matter to me, it's what I like about baseball. So the big number for me is the 20. Whether we fell short with 80 wins or 78 matters little to me. Regardless as to whether the Braves pack it in or not, I would like to see 100% effort given. Going through the motions always ticks me off.


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 Post subject: Re: How short?
PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2012 11:05 am 
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Location: Way too far from Pittsburgh.....
For me, given how badly they've played over the last 7 weeks, an extra 3-4 wins to hit 82 would have made it a very hollow achievement.


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 Post subject: Re: How short?
PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2012 2:12 pm 
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Another fun take by an outsider that I think is probably the most accurate -

Comment From Steve the Pirate
The Pirate's season: Best in a decade or Soul Crushing Collapse
12:29

Jeff Sullivan:
I don't see why it can't be both
12:29

Jeff Sullivan:
which is sad :(

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 Post subject: Re: How short?
PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2012 4:57 pm 
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Scrap Iron wrote:
For me, given how badly they've played over the last 7 weeks, an extra 3-4 wins to hit 82 would have made it a very hollow achievement.


I feel the exact opposite. The streak is an unbearable burden that they have to get off their backs. I would have been thrilled to see them get to 82.

I predicted 78 so I'm glad they got to that. You always want to win but regardless of what happens now it's still a losing season.

But at least they are making progress, from the standpoint that they won 6 more than last year.


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 Post subject: Re: How short?
PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2012 5:11 pm 
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Ralphie wrote:
Scrap Iron wrote:
For me, given how badly they've played over the last 7 weeks, an extra 3-4 wins to hit 82 would have made it a very hollow achievement.


I feel the exact opposite. The streak is an unbearable burden that they have to get off their backs. I would have been thrilled to see them get to 82.

I predicted 78 so I'm glad they got to that. You always want to win but regardless of what happens now it's still a losing season.

But at least they are making progress, from the standpoint that they won 6 more than last year.


And they actually have the stats to support 78 wins, last year they were a 65-67 win team on paper and won 72. My goal for 2012 was to see them win high-70's games and do it in a sustainable manner. Of course, they ripped our hearts out in the way it went, but they ended up achieving my goal. There are many good things that happened this year, certainly more than any other year in the streak, but its impossible to overlook 16 over in August.

By WAR - 2011 they had a 15.4 WAR from hitters (led by Cutch with 5.8) and 5.6 WAR on the mound (Led by Charlie with 2.0) for a total of 21.0 wins.
2012 - they have 21.6 WAR from hitters (Cutch with 7.6) and 11.7 WAR on the mound (AJ 3.2 leads) for 33.3 wins, more than a 12 win improvement.

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 Post subject: Re: How short?
PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2012 7:28 pm 
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80 wins would be nice.


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 Post subject: Re: How short?
PostPosted: Wed Oct 03, 2012 10:27 am 
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Yes, as would a sweep of the Braves to end the season.

Figures they would win a few once all the pressure was off.


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 Post subject: Re: How short?
PostPosted: Wed Oct 03, 2012 11:41 am 
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I would like to end the season with 80 wins (hasn't been done since '92) and a sweep.

Yes the collapse is once again disappointing, but remember there are still needs on this team. Last year everyone thought that 2013 was the year. No one thought that 2012 would be a playoff run. To a certain degree Neil was right when he said the metrics said we weren't supposed to be 16 games over in August. I'm not saying that as an excuse but lets think about this for a minute:

Is McCutchen really a 370+ hitter? Doesn't the laws of average say that by the end of a season he would be back to where he is supposed to be, probably around 320-330

Is Jones really a 25+ HR guy who bats 270-280? I'd say no, simply because he is 31 and has never been that way before.

I think Clint Barmes showed in the 2nd half that he is really a 240-250 hitter, not a 200 hitter.

Lets face the obvious question here, we had ALOT of our pitchers on pace for career years, years that they can probably not reproduce. Again, the law of averages dictated they need to come back to earth.

I honestly think that if Neal Walker was playing, we may have won just enough to be like 82-80 or 83-79. His bat was sorely missed in a lot of clutch situations.

That being said, here is how I view Neal's record at building this team.

2008 - 67 wins - 1st year, dumping players, drafting
2009 - 62 wins - dumping players, drafting
2010 - 57 wins - dumping players, drafting
2011 - 72 wins - putting it together
2012 - 79 wins (maybe 80) - putting it together
2013 - ? wins - I'm thinking 88 - 90 based on the trend here, which is a good trend.


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 Post subject: Re: How short?
PostPosted: Wed Oct 03, 2012 11:45 am 
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While it would be nice to win 80, we will spend the whole winter agonizing over that 1 game that got away that could've ended this cursed streak. :x

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 Post subject: Re: How short?
PostPosted: Wed Oct 03, 2012 11:47 am 
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Boy I'm going to have to see how the offseason goes but at this point I'm sure not projecting an 88 win season.

Jones is what he is. He is a very good hitter.


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 Post subject: Re: How short?
PostPosted: Wed Oct 03, 2012 11:48 am 
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Barrys Dopers wrote:
While it would be nice to win 80, we will spend the whole winter agonizing over that 1 game that got away that could've ended this cursed streak. :x


Not me. Seeing my sports teams lose is like water off a duck's back. The Pirates made me that way.


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 Post subject: Re: How short?
PostPosted: Wed Oct 03, 2012 11:55 am 
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Ralphie wrote:
Barrys Dopers wrote:
While it would be nice to win 80, we will spend the whole winter agonizing over that 1 game that got away that could've ended this cursed streak. :x


Not me. Seeing my sports teams lose is like water off a duck's back. The Pirates made me that way.


LOL :lol:

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 Post subject: Re: How short?
PostPosted: Wed Oct 03, 2012 4:49 pm 
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I can live with 79. That is, over 80.

80 would have been haunting.

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 Post subject: Re: How short?
PostPosted: Thu Oct 04, 2012 7:07 pm 
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The A.J. injury
The J-Mac meltdown
The Chaz-Mo/Karstens injuries
The Walker injury
The numerous blown leads
Etc.

There are at least 3 (more) wins lost this season.

If you aren't confident that they (and more) can be found next season, come with me to the merry ole land of Oz and we'll get that courage together. We'll get this 'tin man team' some heart for the 2nd half and Clint Hurdle some (don't start Barajas/Barmes every game!) brains, too! :D

Remember 2012---that needs to be the motto. This team needs to remember it so it can use it as motivation to overcome and then forget it.

2013 will not be lucky number 21.

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 Post subject: Re: How short?
PostPosted: Fri Oct 05, 2012 10:29 am 
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They obviously weren't a 15+ games over .500 club, but there is regressing to the mean and there is outright historically collapsing.

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