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 Post subject: Re: Stanton and farm system
PostPosted: Fri Jan 04, 2013 3:14 pm 
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Just my opinion: we need to draft the Stantons of the world, not trade a bunch of the guys we did draft to get him. I know it's easier said than done, but whether it's luck or great scouting knowledge, we're going nowhere until we hit on more of these guys.


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 Post subject: Re: Stanton and farm system
PostPosted: Fri Jan 04, 2013 3:17 pm 
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Taillon is my favorite of all our prospects. I just think he is a natural talent who possesses all the qualities necessary to be a true ace.


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 Post subject: Re: Stanton and farm system
PostPosted: Fri Jan 04, 2013 3:26 pm 
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NSMaster56 wrote:
Willton wrote:
As opposed to your method, which apparently includes blowing your load on one or two players and hoping that doing so will put the Pirates in contention? The 2012 Marlins tried that. The Mariners and Mets did it for years. It doesn't work.


This is true, but a few things...

The M's and Mets often traded for older players or players not on truly 'elite' status (Erik Bedard is not Zach Grienke).

Touche on the Marlins, but they broke the bank; the Pirates would be trading lotto tickets for a cheap All-Star/MVP candidate.

Lastly and most importantly, aren't the Bucs in position to trade from the deep-ish farm system the have?

Years of picking in the top-5 has replenished their system to respectability. Paying over slot also helped the system thrive faster. They have two first rounders this year.

Of their young arms, it stands to reason that one or two will go dud, right? So why not trade a few (NOT Cole) along with some other prospects who might not fit in their long-term plan (specifically OFers) for a 'sure thing' like Stanton.

I agree that Stanton is unlikely to be moved until he hits arb. and that Taillon/Marte may very well become productive-to-All-Star ML'ers, but if there were ever a time to try and make a splash, this would be it, right?

I believe that you are right about the best long-term strategy for winning is building from the ground up. However, when the opportunity arises to even pursue an elite talent like Stanton, it seems foolish to not attempt to try.


Ugh. I appreciate the response here and I understand it, but I have to break a few things down here.

"Touche on the Marlins, but they broke the bank; the Pirates would be trading lotto tickets for a cheap All-Star/MVP candidate."

Define lotto tickets. Taillon is not a lotto ticket. There is strong statistical evidence that elite prospects (consensus top 25 guys), such as Cole and Taillon, succeed at a far superior and statistically significant rate than even back end top 100 guys. They are not lotto tickets. Tyler Glasnow is a lotto ticket. Clay Holmes is a lotto ticket. Willy Garcia is a lotto ticket. Cole, Taillon (especially) Heredia, Hanson, and Polanco are stocks and bonds at this point. Very valuable stocks and bonds.

Lastly and most importantly, aren't the Bucs in position to trade from the deep-ish farm system the have?

Yes and no. As has been iterated above, if Stanton were to be traded this offseason, he would be the biggest trade chip moved... ever. Ever. This article from fangraphs rates Stanton as the 5th most valuable trade chip in baseball right now behind Trout, Harper, Cutch, and Longoria. He would be incredibly expensive in prospect terms. Young, immensely talented, and plenty of years of control left.

Point being, we do have a deep-ish farm system, but we aren't drowning in talent. We made a fairly big move last trade deadline in trading Grossman (traded from our OF depth), Owens (Basically equal with Locke, McPherson, and kinda Irwin at the time). In that 4-8 range of pitching talent. Cain wasn't even in the top 10 of pitchers. Trading arguably your 4th best OF prospect (especially when you have Cutch already in the majors) and a pitching prospect without elite upside who's no better than your 4th best pitching prospect + some filler for a #3-4 starter with 2.5 years of control left is a really good move. It doesn't decimate the farm system and makes a legitimate improvement to the major league team. Trading what it would take to get Stanton - say good-bye to at least 4 or 5 if not more of our top 10 prospects - would improve the team for 3 years (in reality, we'd probably have to trade Stanton after the 2015 season to recoup some value - but his value would drop by then) but would also take us from a top 5 system to a bottom 10 system. It would take several more years to rebuild the depth and it probably would make us suck something fierce from 2016-2020.

Of their young arms, it stands to reason that one or two will go dud, right? So why not trade a few (NOT Cole) along with some other prospects who might not fit in their long-term plan (specifically OFers) for a 'sure thing' like Stanton.

Yes it does. That's why you get so many. We all hope Cole, Taillon, and Heredia all become legitimate aces, Locke and McPherson become #3-4 guys, and Kingham, Holmes, and Glasnow become #2-3 guys, but it ain't happening. Just looking at Cole, Taillon, and Heredia, a realistic outcome would be a borderline ace, a #2, and a #3-4. Seriously. That's the attrition rate. By trading a few of them, you make it hard to make a legitimate rotation (we might just have enough pitching depth right now to field an above-average rotation from 2015-2020) and you run the risk that we trade the guys who hit and keep the duds. Things would be different if we had signed Appel and say taken Daniel Norris instead of Josh Bell and if had Stetson Allie were still alive and if ZVR was half decent, but unfortunately that didn't happen.

I agree that Stanton is unlikely to be moved until he hits arb. and that Taillon/Marte may very well become productive-to-All-Star ML'ers, but if there were ever a time to try and make a splash, this would be it, right?

No. I really don't believe now is the time to make a splash. We could trade Stanton and still not make the playoffs. I think you make a move like this when it's "We get player X and we are now a legitimate championship contender." Above, I advocated maybe trying this if we can build a package around Marte/Polanco (one becomes expendable) + guys that will start next year in A+ (Bradenton) ball or below, Alen Hanson exempt. That's Heredia, Bell, Barnes, Kingham, Glasnow, Holmes, etc. I would throw in Locke, McPherson, Tabata, and Presley if they want. I doubt that gets it done though. Basically, Hanson, Cole, Taillon, Sanchez and one of Polanco/Marte must be kept for me to do the trade. That would, they could fill in holes and we could make a legitimate run in 2015 and 2016 (and just not trade Stanton).

That said, there will be another Stanton available say before the 2015 season. There are always guys available. Latos and Gio Gonzalez two years ago. Shields this offseason. David Price will probably be on the block in the future. Cutch isn't a free agent until 2018. There's no need to rush and there will be a difference in 2015 compared to now. Our rotation should include Cole and Taillon. Our outfield should include Polanco and an experienced Marte. Our SS should be Alen Hanson. Our 1B should be Dickerson or Osuna. Our C should be Tony Sanchez. We should be better, potentially much better, and then would be the time to strike. Then, a big trade would make his a championship contender. Small market success is all about windows. Our window is starting to crack, but it should get busted open in a few years and won't shut till Cutch leaves. However, a trade for Stanton would close the window in 2016, leaving it open for a very short time.

That's my 2 cents. I agree with your basic premise. I just think it's a year or, more likely, two early.


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 Post subject: Re: Stanton and farm system
PostPosted: Fri Jan 04, 2013 3:41 pm 
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Ralphie wrote:
Taillon is my favorite of all our prospects. I just think he is a natural talent who possesses all the qualities necessary to be a true ace.



I saw him in his 2nd start in Altoona this past summer...He was the Eastern League Pitcher of the Week in his first week at AA. 11 shutout innings.

It would be nice to see him and Cole make it to the Majors midseason.

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 Post subject: Re: Stanton and farm system
PostPosted: Fri Jan 04, 2013 4:46 pm 
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McCutchenistheTruth wrote:
Cole, Taillon (especially) Heredia, Hanson, and Polanco are stocks and bonds at this point. Very valuable stocks and bonds.


Touche. I used improper terms.

McCutchenistheTruth wrote:
I think you make a move like this when it's "We get player X and we are now a legitimate championship contender."

That said, there will be another Stanton available say before the 2015 season. There are always guys available.

However, a trade for Stanton would close the window in 2016, leaving it open for a very short time.

I just think it's a year or, more likely, two early.


Fair enough.

I hope you are right and that said player available in the future fits a need/is young/cost efficient enough for the Bucs to become that championship team.

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 Post subject: Re: Stanton and farm system
PostPosted: Fri Jan 04, 2013 5:05 pm 
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Just saw this prospect ranking list from 2006 in a fangraphs article. Not a whole lotta success there.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/fe ... p100c.html

I'm conflicted on what I'd trade for Stanton, but in the end I'd probably give up Taillon and Bell if they asked.


EDIT: Pirates had two of the top 2006 prospects in 2006. Now we have 4! Yeah!

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 Post subject: Re: Stanton and farm system
PostPosted: Fri Jan 04, 2013 5:28 pm 
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SUPERCHARGED APE wrote:
Just saw this prospect ranking list from 2006 in a fangraphs article.


Did NH provide the link? ;)

Discounting Cutch and Walker I count 10 players on that list who have or currently sport a Pirates uni. :shock:

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 Post subject: Re: Stanton and farm system
PostPosted: Fri Jan 04, 2013 6:11 pm 
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NSMaster56 wrote:
SUPERCHARGED APE wrote:
Just saw this prospect ranking list from 2006 in a fangraphs article.


Did NH provide the link? ;)

Discounting Cutch and Walker I count 10 players on that list who have or currently sport a Pirates uni. :shock:



Guess the team figured better late than never to build that 2006 farm system!

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 Post subject: Re: Stanton and farm system
PostPosted: Fri Jan 04, 2013 6:13 pm 
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NSMaster56 wrote:
SUPERCHARGED APE wrote:
Just saw this prospect ranking list from 2006 in a fangraphs article.


Did NH provide the link? ;)

Discounting Cutch and Walker I count 10 players on that list who have or currently sport a Pirates uni. :shock:


I always chuckle about that manager saying Wood is the next Cal Ripken Jr. :lol:

Its like they didn't know about Cal league and PCL inflation back then. Really Wood was the classic bust formula like Hermansen, tons of power but too much swing and miss.

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 Post subject: Re: Stanton and farm system
PostPosted: Fri Jan 04, 2013 6:17 pm 
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SUPERCHARGED APE wrote:
Just saw this prospect ranking list from 2006 in a fangraphs article. Not a whole lotta success there.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/fe ... p100c.html

I'm conflicted on what I'd trade for Stanton, but in the end I'd probably give up Taillon and Bell if they asked.


EDIT: Pirates had two of the top 2006 prospects in 2006. Now we have 4! Yeah!


A few other thoughts looking back, its rare that so many of the top SP prospects actually pan out. You have to go down to #34/35 to get the first busts.

There were a lot of good bats on that list, I'm not sure we have close to that in the minors right now in MLB.

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 Post subject: Re: Stanton and farm system
PostPosted: Sat Jan 05, 2013 2:51 am 
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SUPERCHARGED APE wrote:
Just saw this prospect ranking list from 2006 in a fangraphs article. Not a whole lotta success there.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/fe ... p100c.html

The ratings demonstrate that top-tier talent (top 25, for example) have a success rate of about 50%, including some very good players: Justin Upton, Francisco Liriano (the arm problems really robbed him of a potentially superior career, IMO), Justin Verlander, Matt Cain, Prince Fielder, Alex Gordon, Ryan Zimmerman, Nick Markakis, Jon Lester, Chris Young and Troy Tulowitzki were among the top-25 prospects.

11 pretty darn good players. You could build a winning team among the top 50 prospects (by adding Billy Butler, Hanley Ramirez, Carlos Gonzalez, Jonathan Pabelbon, Anibal Sanchez, Neil Walker, Ryan Braun, Andrew McCutchen).

A team with the following players makes the playoffs:

C - Russell Martin
1B - Prince Fielder
2B - Neil Walker
SS - Troy Tulowitzki
3B - Ryan Zimmerman
OF - Carlos Gonzalez
OF - Andrew McCutchen
OF - Ryan Braun

BN - Hanley Ramirez
BN - Alex Gordon
BN - Justin Upton
BN - Chris Young

SP - Justin Verlander
SP - Jon Lester
SP - Matt Cain
SP - Anibal Sanchez
SP - Phil Hughes
SP - Francisco Liriano

BP - Jonathan Papelbon
BP - Anthony Reyes
BP - Bobby Jenks
BP - Andrew Miller

That team would dominate almost any division in baseball.


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 Post subject: Re: Stanton and farm system
PostPosted: Sat Jan 05, 2013 2:33 pm 
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SUPERCHARGED APE wrote:
Just saw this prospect ranking list from 2006 in a fangraphs article. Not a whole lotta success there.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/fe ... p100c.html

I'm conflicted on what I'd trade for Stanton, but in the end I'd probably give up Taillon and Bell if they asked.


EDIT: Pirates had two of the top 2006 prospects in 2006. Now we have 4! Yeah!



Yikes: Some of those top 20 gave me flashback nightmares of all the "Can't Miss Prospects" we have taken a flyer on over the years and all have been complete busts: Milledge, Andy Laroche, Wood.

(Edit: Gee, how could I have overlooked Jeff Clement.)

And how about McCutchen ranked below Neil Walker?


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 Post subject: Re: Stanton and farm system
PostPosted: Sat Jan 05, 2013 2:47 pm 
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J.D. wrote:
SUPERCHARGED APE wrote:
Just saw this prospect ranking list from 2006 in a fangraphs article. Not a whole lotta success there.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/fe ... p100c.html

I'm conflicted on what I'd trade for Stanton, but in the end I'd probably give up Taillon and Bell if they asked.


EDIT: Pirates had two of the top 2006 prospects in 2006. Now we have 4! Yeah!



Yikes: Some of those top 20 gave me flashback nightmares of all the "Can't Miss Prospects" we have taken a flyer on over the years and all have been complete busts: Milledge, Andy Laroche, Wood.

(Edit: Gee, how could I have overlooked Jeff Clement.)

And how about McCutchen ranked below Neil Walker?

Walker was still a catcher in 2006, and McCutchen had yet to show home run power. A catcher with Walker's bat would be priceless.

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